The New York Yankees didn’t hesitate to extend Trent Grisham a qualifying offer, locking in a one-year, $22 million proposal for the 2026 season.
On the surface, it looks like a simple reward for a player who delivered a career year at the plate. But dig a little deeper, and the decision becomes far more complicated for both sides — especially when you factor in how sharply Grisham’s athleticism and defensive value have dipped.
A career year at the plate forced the Yankees’ hand
The Yankees loved the version of Grisham they saw in 2025. He delivered his best offensive season to date, tapping into legitimate power and providing unexpected production in key moments. New York needed extra firepower after losing major bats the previous winter, and Grisham jumped in with more slugging than anyone reasonably predicted.
When a player finally rediscovers his offensive upside after years of inconsistency, teams often face a tough choice: buy in or let someone else take the gamble. The Yankees chose the middle ground, offering the qualifying offer to protect their compensatory return without committing long term.
The defensive decline is impossible to ignore
Even with that offensive growth, Grisham’s defense fell off dramatically. Once seen as a dynamic defensive center fielder with quick instincts and above-average range, he graded out as one of the worst defensive centerfielders in baseball this past season.
His metrics collapsed. His jumps were slower, his closing speed diminished, and his overall defensive value cratered. For a player who built much of his reputation on athleticism and reliable glove work, this decline isn’t just a blip — it’s a legitimate concern that will follow him into free agency.
He posted -11 defensive runs saved and -2 outs above average.
The reality is simple: most teams view him as a future corner outfielder, not a long-term centerfield solution. And that drastically alters how much they’re willing to pay.
Cashman’s comments paint the full picture
General manager Brian Cashman spoke candidly on Wednesday when asked about the qualifying offer and the Yankees’ expectations.
“If he turns it down, that means the market is flush with teams that have a need in the outfield, especially center field,” Cashman said. “He had a hell of a year for us, and one of the big reasons why we had the level of success we did. We’d be happy if he accepted and came back.”
His comments were measured, but the subtext was clear: the Yankees appreciate what Grisham did for them, but they’re also not banking on a repeat of his 2025 performance. And even if they would “be happy” with accepting the QO, that’s more diplomatic than strategic.
Paying $22 million for a player coming off a defensive collapse — and an offensive season that looks suspiciously like an anomaly — isn’t great business.
Why accepting the QO would be a mistake for Grisham
From Grisham’s perspective, accepting the qualifying offer would be a risky bet on himself. It locks him into center field again, a position where he looked overmatched and exposed. It delays his chance to land multi-year security, and it ties him to a lineup where his future role isn’t guaranteed.
The better path is clear: decline the qualifying offer and test a market desperate for athletic outfielders, even if his athletic profile isn’t what it used to be. Teams still pay for power and upside, and someone will talk themselves into his bat after a strong offensive season.
The Yankees shouldn’t want him to accept — even if they say otherwise
For the Yankees, having Grisham return at $22 million would clog up flexibility they need elsewhere. That money could go toward pitching depth, outfield stability, or infield insurance with Anthony Volpe expected to miss early time in 2026.
Grisham helped the Yankees in 2025, but banking on lightning striking twice is rarely smart team-building. They need consistent defense in center and stability in the outfield — not another year of hoping his bat carries enough weight to offset declining mobility.
A respectful exit seems inevitable
Grisham deserves credit for the year he had, and Cashman’s praise reflects that. But the Yankees know they can’t overpay for an outlier season, and Grisham knows his best chance at securing a multi-year contract is elsewhere.
All signs point to a mutual understanding: he’ll decline the qualifying offer, hit the market, and leave the Yankees with a roster spot and financial breathing room.
The question now is simple — where does his next chapter begin, and will his 2025 breakout hold up once the calendar turns to 2026?
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