Why Yankees’ first-round pick could have a huge year in 2025

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Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

The New York Yankees used their first-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft on right-handed pitcher Ben Hess out of Alabama, a school known for its dominant football history, and there wasn’t a ton of buzz surrounding this pick. His senior season was underwhelming, with Hess posting a 5.80 ERA across 15 starts in the run-heavy SEC, but why would the Yankees use their first-round selection on a pitcher who couldn’t even get college hitters out? Drafting has evolved past evaluating college production, with teams looking more at skill sets and underlying data than ever before.

While the run prevention was subpar, Ben Hess displayed a pitch mix with incredible upside, featuring a power fastball and a sharp curveball that can rack up whiffs. The Yankees are excellent at pitching development, and the 22-year-old right-hander might be primed for a huge debut season in Minor League Baseball.

What Made Ben Hess a First-Rounder in the MLB Draft?

A good fastball serves as the foundation for a strong arsenal, and Ben Hess’ four-seamer is a strong offering that he can use at the top of the strike zone to coax swings and misses. Sitting at ~94 MPH, it generates tons of vertical movement and horizontal movement as it averaged 18.9 inches of Induced Vertical Break with 13.3 inches of arm-side run, and while movement at the college level is usually inflated, it still would be a fastball with plus ride and run.

Batters had a 29.1% Whiff Rate against his fastball last season, and it’s the kind of pitch that could improve if Hess is able to add some velocity. He reached 98 MPH last season on it, and if the Yankees can tap into that velocity ceiling he could be able to get it closer to the 95-96 MPH range in terms of average velocity. Furthermore, the extension he gets on his four-seam fastball makes it deceptively fast, making it an even better pitch than the shape and velocity suggest.

Fastballs with plus vertical movement and extension while maintaining solid velocity will always work in the modern game where swings and misses are coveted, but his signature pitch is a wicked curveball with ridiculous movement.

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Ben Hess gets elite vertical drop and lateral movement on his curveball freezing hitters with it in-zone or getting a hideous swing that results in a whiff. This curveball ran one of the highest whiff rates in all of college baseball last season, and it’s a big reason why Ben Hess was able to strike out 34.8% of batters last season. The way it pairs with his fastball plays up both pitches, as there’s an unfathomable 35.5 inches of vertical separation between these two pitches.

Having a fastball with plus traits and a curveball that could get a 70 grade from scouts, Hess has the foundation of an arsenal that can dominate at the next level. Good fastballs paired with an excellent secondary yield high swing-and-miss rates, especially when the fastball is a riding heater that can induce some whiff on its own. That being said, there’s a reason Ben Hess ran an ERA nearing 6.00 last season in Alabama, and the Yankees have work to do with him.

With some key changes in his repertoire and usage rates, the Yankees just might be able to make Ben Hess one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

How the Yankees Can Help Ben Hess Unlock His Potential

While Ben Hess has a good fastball, he relies on it far too much and it results in him allowing more damage contact than you’d like to see. He threw his heater 61% of the time last season, which is just far too high considering his fastball is a good but not historically dominant offering. As hitters have seen more riding fastballs with velocity, they’ve become more adjusted to those high heaters that once bugged them, and Hess has to adjust to a game that’s changed rapidly.

League-average fastball rates have come down over the years, as pitchers have begun mixing up their repertoire more and using their secondaries aggressively.

This past season was the lowest four-seam usage rate we’ve seen in the Statcast Era, and its also the third-straight year where four-seam usage has gone down. Ben Hess’ 61% usage rate of his four-seamer will likely be shaved down when he pitches at the Minor League level, as the Yankees will try and emphasize a greater usage of his secondary pitches, but he can’t just dial up the curveball usage and call it a day.

Big breaking balls with that kind of velocity and movement can get hit hard when hung over the heart of the plate, so while I expect the Yankees to increase his usage of it, I also expect other offerings to get their time in the sun. His slider is a pitch that stands out as an offering that the organization can improve, as it doesn’t have much vertical drop or horizontal sweep, and batters rarely swung out-of-zone at it, meaning it wasn’t very deceptive at the college level.

Few organizations improve sliders the way the Yankees do, and with an underwhelming slider perhaps the Yankees help Ben Hess develop either a sweeping slider or a firmer gyroscopic slider. The sweeper would be a primary weapon against right-handed batters if he could develop it, and seeing that he already has a big curveball, perhaps a pitch that emphasizes horizontal movement like a sweeper would fit well into his arsenal.

On top of his slider being a pitch the Yankees could improve, his changeup has shown serious signs of being a plus pitch, with good horizontal movement and depth to it. The Yankees have improved the offspeed pitches of Luis Gil and Luke Weaver this past season, and perhaps they can do the same by altering the grip that Hess uses, just as they did with the breakout right-handers that helped them win the AL East in 2024.

Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Yankees have an exciting young arm in Ben Hess, who possesses crisp mechanics that are repeatable and allow him to get those unique release points we discussed earlier. He’s got plenty of arm speed and generates plenty of spin on the ball, and if the organization can help him make some key adjustments, he’ll be a stud. A lot of these adjustments are things that the Yankees have a strong track record with as well, giving me hope that they’ll optimize his skillset.

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