Before the Yankees traded for an injured JT Brubaker, 2023 looked like it would be a breakout season for the Pirates’ 2015 6th-round pick. In his third season in Pittsburgh’s rotation, he set a new career-best mark in strikeouts (147) while cutting his HR/9 rate by half, but the development of a new breaking ball in camp. His curveball added tons of lateral movement, mirroring the sweeping sliders added by various pitchers in the league including fellow Pirate Mitch Keller, who has cemented himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Unfortunately, a UCL tear would sideline Brubaker after striking out 26 batters in 17.1 innings in Spring Training, and an oblique injury while rehabbing with the Yankees would effectively delay his MLB hopes for another season. Despite the setback the Yankees decided to tender JT Brubaker a contract in 2025, and with no MiLB options he’s guaranteed a 26-man roster spot unless the team trades him, if they cut him they’ll still be on the hook for his money.
Maybe he’s just cheap rotation depth, or the Yankees view him as their next Luke Weaver.
Why JT Brubaker Could Play a Big Role on the 2025 Yankees
There were already-existing reasons to find JT Brubaker interesting; the right-hander dealt with some rough luck as he posted a 3.92 FIP across 28 starts with a 4.69 ERA, a result of a below-average defense behind him. He had a team-worst -5 OAA behind him when on the mound which elongated innings and muddied a season with some strong progressions for Brubaker, who once again increased his workload and was able to improve his ability to induce chases out of the zone.
Batters whiffed over 27% of the time against JT Brubaker with a Chase Rate north of 30%, indicating that there’s some serious upside to his repertoire. While he was far from dominant in Pittsburgh, the Yankees saw enough flashes to buy into his profile and virtually guarantee him a roster spot unless he’s dealt this winter, and his sharp gyro slider might have been the biggest reason for that.
With a Whiff Rate north of 40% in both 2021 and 2022, JT Brubaker had one of the better sliders in the sport, generating sharp drop from a high release point and getting hitters to swing right over it. Paired with a solid sinker that’s consistently generated above-average lateral movement, he had a strong foundation for a solid arsenal, but developing that reliable third offering proved to be a massive challenge.
Entering 2023, Brubaker tweaked his curveball to try and get more lateral movement, sacrificing some vertical drop to develop a truly nasty sweeper.
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The addition of a sweeping breaking ball made JT Brubaker a Spring Training standout, punching out over 30% of batters faced before being shut down with a UCL tear. It’s no secret that the Yankees love their sinker-slider guys, and the development of this new breaking ball likely piqued their interest enough to make a trade for him while rehabbing back from that elbow injury.
With how rapidly sweepers caught the baseball world by storm, teams were able to quickly adjust and adapt, exploiting some serious flaws with the pitch which have caused some to throw two distinct sliders. Brubaker was ahead of the curve in that regard, possessing two above-average sliders he could utilize based on the situation, allowing him to generate swings and misses with vertical or lateral movement.
This kind of slider diversification is similar to what his former Pirates teammate and new Mets starter Clay Holmes used to great effect with the Yankees, mixing in a harder gyro slider with a sweeping slider to attack righties and lefties.
Both Holmes and Brubaker share some interesting similarities as well that go beyond their days in Pittsburgh, as both of them release their sliders from higher points than most right-handed pitchers. This helps them get more vertical drop on the pitch, giving them true two-plane movement on these sliders, making it even harder for hitters to barrel it up or make good swing decisions.
Hitters don’t see a lot of high-slot sweepers, but what they especially don’t see are sweepers from a high-slot and a wide release point, and that’s what could make JT Brubaker’s whirly a special offering. A pitch with outlier traits is usually a good one; especially when those traits come in its release point, as it gives the pitcher a one-of-a-kind angle to present to a batter on a pitch that could be considered pretty mundane when observing pitch shape and velocity alone.
If you group the “sweeper” that JT Brubaker threw in Spring Training with sweepers thrown by other pitchers during the 2024 regular season (min. 100 sweepers), you have quite a unique offering.
Only four sweepers were thrown from a higher release height, with only Miles Mikolas having a wider release point among that group of four pitchers. By being in a small class of pitchers who can throw a whirly slider from that tall of a release height, Brubaker’s sweeper separates itself from most, giving it an outlier trait that can throw hitters off. It helps that he also has the shorter slider to pair with it, meaning he can get the best from both slider worlds.
It wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world if he had a career-best season with the Yankees out of the bullpen; just a year ago the team gave Luke Weaver a guaranteed MLB deal to serve a similar role to Brubaker’s. They gave him said deal after a two-year stretch where he had the worst ERA in baseball (6.44) for a pitcher with at least 150 innings logged, and now he’s one of the best contracts Brian Cashman has ever handed out.
Not every flier becomes a top 20 reliever but even converting him into a solid piece to round out this pitching staff would be a win, and with this new sweeper, JT Brubaker has a chance to catch a lot of people by surprise in 2025