Why Yankees’ big deadline acquistion could have breakout year in 2025

MLB: World Series-Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Jazz Chisholm’s postseason struggles overshadowed an important second-half surge that helped the Yankees win the American League East and capture the top seed. When it was announced that Chisholm would head to the Bronx, there was plenty of mystery surrounding where he would play and how the Yankees would utilize the talented infielder in their lineup. His mediocre performance at the plate with Miami raised legitimate questions about whether he was even a worthwhile upgrade for a contender to make, but he proved all the doubters wrong.

With 11 home runs and a 132 wRC+ in 46 games, Chisholm took advantage of right field and was a shooting star in the bright lights of New York. A player who relished in his first time playing for a true contender, Jazz Chisholm is primed for a quantum leap in 2025.

Jazz Chisholm Reminded Many of His Star Potential With Yankees

Oct 7, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees third base Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) hits a solo home run against the Kansas City Royals in the ninth inning during game two of the ALDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The easiest improvement to track with Jazz Chisholm is looking at his quality of contact improved from his days in Miami. His best season at the plate came back in 2022 when he pulled 50% of batted balls, drilling home runs and looking like a star before a season-ending injury would limit Chisholm to just 60 games. In those 60 games, he posted a career-best 2.5 fWAR, and the Yankees were ready to help the speedy infielder get back to his peak form.

With the Marlins, Jazz Chisholm pulled 30.1% of batted balls, slugging .407 with 13 home runs and a 100 wRC+ across 101 games. That mark improved to 53.3% when he came over to the Yankees, and his SLG% improved to .500 while hitting 11 home runs in just 46 games. On top of pulling the ball more, Chisholm hit the ball considerably harder, doing more damage on contact and allowing for his pulled contact to result in a productive at-bat.

Hitting the ball harder and pulling it more will almost always improve a hitter’s batted ball data and their power output, but not everyone makes that adjustment because of the usual drawbacks. The balance between quality and quantity of contact is one that can be difficult to manage, but Chisholm’s Zone Contact Rate barely decreased with the Yankees while seeing a 1.3% decrease in strikeout rate.

Another concern would come with swing decisions, which Chisholm struggled with as his SEAGER score took a serious dip as a result of him taking more hittable pitches. While he saw a small decrease in his Chase%, he became too passive in some instances and left some meat on the bone when normally we would see Jazz Chisholm take an aggressive swing to do damage.

Pulling the ball more means having a little less time to decide whether to swing or not, which can result in poor plate discipline, and if the Yankees can help Chisholm recognize pitches a bit sooner they could have a seriously dynamic force at the plate. Even if he doesn’t, the improved batted ball data makes it a worthwhile sacrifice to make, and the results back that up.

The numbers that Jazz Chisholm paced for were quite incredible, as over 150 games he would have had 35 home runs, 58 stolen bases, and a 7.5 fWAR. That kind of production would get him top-five MVP votes, and while I don’t believe that’s his true talent level, it’s still impressive to see that kind of production from a player who has flashed the talent only the most elite players in the game have.

Projections don’t see Jazz Chisholm having an MVP-type season, but the median outcome is quite enticing.

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Having a median outcome with a near 30/30 season is quite impressive, but the projected WAR total of 3.4 is where I have my focus. Steamer projects Jazz Chisholm to be a negative defender because they currently believe he’s a centerfielder, and while that’s certainly a possibility if the Yankees are unable to retain Juan Soto, it’s also possible that if Soto returns he remains a third baseman.

Now there are two schools of thought on his defensive abilities at third base; his errors and inexperience make his -2 Defensive Runs Saved the most accurate representation of his defensive abilities there. Then there’s the idea that his elite range and arm make him more of the defender that Outs Above Average (+6) and Fielding Run Value (+5) grade him out as/

Chisholm profiles a lot better there than centerfield thanks to his background as a shortstop and second baseman, as he posted a +5.5 DEF with the Yankees versus the -0.6 he posted with the Marlins. If the Yankees move Chisholm back to second base then this is an obvious “over” bet on his projected defensive runs, but even at third base, I believe he’s capable of being firmly above average.

He struggled the most on plays going toward the shortstop, but anyone who watched Jazz Chisholm play third base would know that most of those miscues came from not communicating well with Anthony Volpe. This is where inexperience comes into play, and with an entire Spring Training to work together as a tandem, the two could develop the necessary chemistry to know who gets priority on what kind of groundball.

Defense is a lot harder to understand and project because it’s not nearly as stable as offense is year-to-year, but it doesn’t require much for Chisholm to be a strong defensive third baseman. A lot of his flaws stem from not being experienced at the position versus lacking the ability to complete certain plays and a good or bad defender is usually determined by the ability to make non-routine plays.

The Yankees have potentially found a defensive home for Jazz Chisholm on top of the strides he’s made at the plate to do more damage on contact and improve his OPS output. With his aggressiveness on the basepaths only growing in the bright lights of New York, the all-around value he provides as a hitter, baserunner, and fielder could make 2025 the year for Jazz Chisholm to make a name for himself in the Bronx.

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