Why Yankees’ Austin Wells Should Win AL Rookie of the Year

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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Entering June, Austin Wells looked completely out of any Rookie of the Year conversation as the Yankees’ 2020 first-round pick posted just a 72 wRC+ and .292 OBP. A defense-first catcher for the first-half of the year, Wells looked like an unfinished product, as while the underlying metrics were great, he wasn’t able to catch up to velocity and get out-in-front to pull the ball with authority. With just one home run, it looked like Jose Trevino would hold onto his starting job for at least one more season.

Now, Austin Wells is the clean-up hitter on a first-place Yankees’ team, and he could be the solution at catcher that they were hoping he could be when the selected him in the first-round four years ago.

Austin Wells Could Become Yankees’ 10th Ever Rookie of the Year

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In terms of counting stats, Austin Wells can’t measure with someone like Colton Cowser, who has eight more home runs this season and a ton more RBIs. Thankfully, we can measure value while adjusting for volume with a metric like WAR, and FanGraphs believes Wells and Cowser are the two best Rookies in the AL. The Yankees’ primary catcher is just 0.2 points behind Colton Cowser, a margin small enough that it’s rather inconclusive as to who the more valuable player is.

Some advantages that Austin Wells has over the Orioles’ star rookie outfielder is that he has the higher wRC+ (124), and while the margin is thin, with Cowser at a 120, the gap in defensive value is hard to ignore. Colton Cowser is a remarkable defensive outfielder, with the fifth-most Fielding Run Value among outfielders (11) while playing 50% of his games at Camden Yards, where left field is cavernous and difficult to cover completely due to just how much space is out there.

He’s a good defensive player, but Austin Wells is one of the best defenders in the entire sport. FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs adjusts for one’s position when calculating how valuable you are, and naturally catcher’s are weighed favorably. They’re involved in every defensive play to some extent, and the Yankees’ young catcher is considered the eighth-most valuable defender in baseball this season, ranking fourth among catchers.

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Austin Wells is one of the 10-best defensive catchers in baseball right now, and among catchers with at least 300 trips to the plate this season, he’s third in wRC+. This is an elite all-around catcher with the ability to impact the game on both sides of the ball. Few players can lay claim to being both a premier defender and an excellent hitter, and Austin Wells truly has an excellent mixture of tools at the plate that could result in sustainable success at the plate.

His .413 xwOBACON represents an elite ability to do damage on contact, and he’s doing this with a 12% walk rate and 20.2% strikeout rate. There’s a lot to love about how Austin Wells hits, possessing the ability to both work the count while also having the power and swing intent to drive a ball to the pull-side for a home run. His raw power cannot be overlooked either, hitting multiple baseballs over 110 MPH and showing the ability to generate hard contact consistently.

It’s rare that you find a catcher who can sustainably hit while being such an excellent defender, and Austin Wells has been a unicorn among his peers this season. Only seven catchers (min. 300 PAs) have a wRC+ above 115, and among that group nobody is within single-digits of Wells in terms of FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs.

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He made an excellent adjustment mid-season to find his power stroke, and it made me think of an article I wrote in the offseason talking about what the young catcher could bring to the table in 2025. Trevor Amicone, the Yankees’ Triple-A hitting coach, delved into the character this blossoming stud brings to the clubhouse, and I believe we could be looking at a franchise cornerstone both on the field and off of it.

“Austin brings a really loose but focused energy to the clubhouses he’s been in. Players really gravitate to him because he puts in the work to prepare really well but he always keeps things light. He earns the respect of his teammates with how hard he works but also helps everyone around him relax and be themselves” – Trevor Amicone, Scranton RailRiders Hitting Coach

FULL ARTICLE: Why the Yankees should be excited about Austin Wells in 2024

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As a catcher, Austin Wells has a lot of personalities that he’ll have to manage on the pitching staff as he gets the bulk of starts for the Yankees. It’s obvious that he’s earned the vast majority of the playing time behind the plate, as his offensive output and defensive value have turned him into one of the top catchers in the league. Few rookies can compare to what he’s done this season, and that’s without being an everyday starter from the jump, for reasons that had to do with the quality of catcher they have in Jose Trevino.

It takes patience, selflessness, and perseverence to make adjustments and keep your head up in the middle of a playoff run while you’re trying to fight for playing time. Austin Wells has at the very least earned the respect and admiration of this fanbase, but maybe he can earn some hardware in the process as well. He’s at +800 for AL Rookie of the Year, with Colton Cowser pulling away as the favorite (-550) thanks to a nice stretch of sustained success at the plate.

Do I think Austin Wells will take AL Rookie of the Year home? No, but I think he has a very real and compelling case, and hopefully he can stay locked in and make it even harder for voters to ignore just how brilliant he’s been this season.

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