Why the Yankees should steer clear of 34-year-old veteran 3B

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees are just weeks away from having pitchers and catchers report, and they’ve yet to land a capable infielder for their roster. While the team is searching for options for their infield, one name that they’ve stayed away from for the most part remains out there: Nolan Arenado. He would be an upgrade over DJ LeMahieu or Oswaldo Cabrera because of his elite glove, but is that enough to stomach taking on the $52 million over three years left on his deal? A star in a clear decline, Arenado’s swing and profile don’t play at Yankee Stadium, and they should steer clear of him.

With the plethora of higher-upside players with fewer strings attached financially still out there, the Yankees must not make the ultimate desperation move with Nolan Arenado.

Nolan Arenado Cannot Be the Yankees’ Solution At Third Base

May 31, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third base Nolan Arenado (28) hits a home run during the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

This past season, Nolan Arenado posted a 102 wRC+, his lowest full-season mark since 2013 when he was a 22-year-old rookie. The underlying data is extremely concerning for Arenado, who had his worst full-season xwOBA (.296) and Barrel% (3.2%), and the numbers indicate that his power is starting to fade. It’s a telltale sign of Nolan Arenado’s likely decline from above-average regular to being a below-average third baseman, which is not what the Yankees need.

DJ LeMahieu is owed $30 million over the next two seasons, and adding Nolan Arenado’s $52 million over the next three seasons would give them two declining veteran infielders who can’t provide thump to a lineup. Without the benefit of hindsight, acquiring Josh Donaldson wasn’t as obviously questionable as Nolan Arenado, as the slugger had come off of a 2021 season where his batted ball quality mirrored his MVP year with the Blue Jays in 2015.

A 2.5 MPH decrease in average exit velocity is a crimson red flag, and the Yankees shouldn’t believe that Nolan Arenado’s swing will play any better in their ballpark, either. Arenado has 272 career home runs in the regular and postseason, but if he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium, he would have only hit 219. It’s not any better in the AL East; Fenway Park (214), the Rogers Centre (228), and Baltimore (232) are all disaster ballparks for the future Hall of Famer as well.

While Arenado performed well at Busch Stadium this year, which would have reduced his career HR total to 213 if he played all of his games there, it was due to a .335 BABIP when playing at home. St. Louis isn’t a hitter-friendly ballpark, but it observes base hits from right-handed hitters 3% more frequently than the league-average ballpark, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factor metrics. Yankee Stadium observes 4% fewer base hits from right-handed hitters than the league-average ballpark, so expect that BABIP at home to experience a sharp decline if he was a Yankee.

The Yankees are also not in a position to add a player who they have been hesitant to acquire this winter, as Ha-Seong Kim remains a free agent and Willi Castro has yet to be dealt.

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MLB: Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins
Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Ha-Seong Kim has 1.1 more fWAR over the past two seasons in 23 fewer games than Nolan Arenado, while Willi Castro trails the multi-time All-Star by 0.2 fWAR in 14 fewer games. How many Yankees fans would feel comfortable offering either infielder $52 million over the next three years? Perhaps if the Cardinals eat a significant sum of the money, the Yankees could justify it, but then you’re trading more prospects to get a declining player.

Castro and Kim are in their 20s and have shown no signs of a steep decline, while Arenado is showing nothing but reasons to believe that his best days are behind him. I don’t believe they’re in on Alex Bregman, but he’s also out there without a clear suitor, so it wouldn’t be a dumb idea to wait until he gets the market going to start making moves from there.

Nolan Arenado isn’t the player he once was, just came off of a season where his batted ball data was worse than Anthony Volpe’s, and is going to cost the Yankees either prospects or money.

I’ll pass.

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