It’s very easy to look at how poorly Luke Weaver pitched in the postseason and determine that the Yankees should look the other way with him in free agency.
This past year was a massive stepback, as he went from a reliable lockdown closer in 2024 to an inconsistent arm who was extremely vulnerable to damage contact.
His final statline of a 3.62 ERA and 19.8% K-BB% are definitely not elite, but they are firmly above-average for a reliever, and the traits he brings as a swing-and-miss weapon should make him a free agent target for the team.
With the Yankees not showing interest in Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, or Devin Williams this winter, they should be looking into the middle of the reliever market with someone like Luke Weaver.
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Luke Weaver Would Directly Address Some of the Yankees’ Biggest Issues
When Luke Weaver returned from the injury list in June, he was a shell of the pitcher we had seen for the majority of his tenure with the Yankees.
He posted a 5.31 ERA and 4.42 FIP after returning from the IL, as a 1.85 HR/9 was the culprit for his issues, allowing longballs left-and-right that were usually of significant consequence.
That being said, I’ve been more focused on having the team add pitchers who sport strong K-BB% numbers, and over that stretch Weaver had a 20.8% K-BB%.
Looking at the batted ball data, a 37.7% Hard Hit% and 7.5% Barrel% while not allowing a ton of pulled contact in the air wouldn’t indicate that his HR/9 should have been that high.
As indicated by the contracts handed to Dylan Cease and Devin Williams, teams are not paying for ERA, they’re paying for strikeouts and underlying numbers which are better indicators of future success.
The Yankees did not lack swing-and-miss stuff in their bullpen last year despite the poor ERA, finishing fourth in Whiff% and sixth in K-BB%, but the loss of Devin Williams will hurt their ability to repeat that for 2026.
Luke Weaver was 10th in Whiff% among free agent relievers, and three of those arms are already off the board at pretty high costs.
If there’s a path to keeping Weaver on a low-cost deal the Yankees should pounce on it, as it wouldn’t preclude them from adding to their other roster holes.
He finished in the 91st Percentile in Whiff% and the 89th Percentile in Chase% this past season, metrics that are far more indicative of reliever success than ERA is.
FanGraphs estimates a two-year $14 million contract ($7 mil AAV), which is a deal I think the Yankees should be willing to hand out to improve the middle of their bullpen depth chart.
The biggest difference between 2024 Luke Weaver and 2025 Luke Weaver comes down to flyball rate; he allowed way more flyballs which open you up for more home runs.
A decrease in cutter usage and an increase in fastball usage seemed to do him in, and even then it still resulted in a year where he was ~10% better at run prevention than the league-average.
When adjusting for high-leverage situations, Weaver produced the 37th-best Win Probability Added among relievers, so that production did impact the Yankees’ chances at winning.
WPA isn’t a sticky stat on a year-to-year basis, but it does highlight that the team kept putting him in difficult situations and they overall benefitted from that.
He might not be closer material, but Luke Weaver should be an effective 7th inning option in 2026, and I’d much rather the Yankees start taking advantage of the ‘scorned reliever’ market rather than losing these players to competitors.
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