Why the Yankees needed to bring in their new brilliant closer

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
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The New York Yankees brought in one of the best relievers in the game yesterday in a shocking trade that came together rather quickly. Devin Williams, who spent his entire career with the Milwaukee Brewers, is headed to the Bronx and is expected to become the team’s primary closer. For the last few seasons, the Bronx Bombers have nickeled and dimed their way into acquiring high-level bullpen talent, turning someone you’ve never heard of into a reliable late-inning option with ease.

While that strategy works, there comes a time when you want the best of the best on the mound; and Devin Williams is the exact kind of pitcher you can trust in critical moments to close out a huge game.

Devin Williams Brings the Yankees a Stable 9th Inning Weapon

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
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Devin Williams is one of the best closers in the entire sport, sporting a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons thanks to his nasty changeup. Dubbed the “Airbender”, it generates tons of movement that’s made even more deceptive by his unique mechanics and release points. No one generates more horizontal run on their changeup than Williams does, who averaged 19.4 inches of arm-side movement on it since 2022 with over 40 inches of drop.

He also gets 7.3 feet of extension on his changeup, meaning he releases his changeup closer to the plate than most, making for an even more uncomfortable at-bat for batters. Stuff+ views it as the best changeup in the sport (160) and the results align with that pitch quality grade. Batters have a .502 OPS against Devin Williams’ changeup since his breakout season in 2020, serving as a high-whiff pitch that can carve through any offense like a hotknife through butter.

It doesn’t help that his fastball is a dominant offering as well, playing up in the zone off of his changeup thanks to its velocity and his low release height. A strikeout machine who can anchor the backend of any bullpen, Devin Williams provides some much-needed swing-and-miss to a Yankees’ bullpen that finished just 12th in strikeout rate last year.

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The Yankees also did not benefit from having Clay Holmes last season, who I believe is a good reliever but objectively was a net negative when you look at Win Probability Added. With a -1.67 WPA, only five qualified relievers hurt their team’s chances of winning more last season, and while as a team the Yankees had only 21 blown saves as a team, the 10th lowest mark in baseball, Clay Holmes had 13 blown saves, which was five more than anybody else.

Some of those blown saves were due to slow rollers and poor defense, but eliminating contact is a surefire way to prevent plays such as those from happening in the first place. Devin Williams also has the best WPA in the sport over the last three seasons (+9.64), and if the Yankees can continue to get strong performances in high-leverage from the star closer, they’ll close out a lot of games that they couldn’t finish off last season.

With someone who can close out games in the ninth inning reliably, the Yankees can also shuffle the pecking order of their bullpen around to put Luke Weaver back in a role where he’s far more valuable.

Oct 14, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Luke Weaver (30) pitches during the eighth inning against the Cleveland Guardians in game one of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Luke Weaver is best when he’s a multi-inning bullpen weapon who can take the game to the ninth inning and face the best hitters in an opponent’s lineup. His fastball-changeup combination is also different from Williams’ prioritizing vertical movement over horizontal movement and having a cutter he can mix in for whiffs and soft contact. Both of them can strike out over 30% of batters faced, and they can cover 3 innings of a game and completely put a game to rest.

With the Yankees’ rotation shaping up to be one of the best in the league, the organization has the chance to run the lowest ERA in the sport. Jonathan Loaisiga returning on a one-year deal helps as well, as he’ll join a group that consists of Ian Hamilton, Jake Cousins, and Mark Leiter Jr. in middle-relief innings. Aaron Boone spoke highly of youngster Clayton Beeter who could carve out a role on the roster in 2025 as well, giving them a near-complete bullpen.

Devin Williams has the best ERA for any qualified reliever since 2022, and he’s joining Max Fried, who has the best ERA for any qualified starter over that timespan. The Yankees will likely prioritize getting players who can hit and provide defensive value in the hopes of having some of the best run prevention in the sport while scoring plenty of runs per game, and Brian Cashman will be hard at work to ensure that those additions come to fruition.

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