As a Yankees‘ fan, I want to make two important concessions regarding this fiercly-debated MVP discussion:
FanGraphs’ WAR, which is the most accurate for catchers, has the gap between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh at 0.5, which is within the margin of error for WAR.
This means that these two players can be debated as better or worse than the other, and that ties into the other concession I’ll make that Cal Raleigh winning the 2025 AL MVP wouldn’t make me irate.
With those two concessions out of the way, it’s time for me to present the case for Aaron Judge being the American League MVP for 2025.
Argument #1: Aaron Judge is Statistically Having a Better Season
While Cal Raleigh might break Aaron Judge’s American League HR record (62), every other offensive metric favors the Yankees’ captain.
His 202 wRC+ and 213 OPS+ are marks that have only been surpassed by himself and Barry Bonds in the 21st Century, leading baseball in the triple slashline and WAR as well.
As I mentioned earlier, the WAR gap on FanGraphs would indicate that Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are within the stat’s defined margin of error, but the gap in offense is astonishing.
Defensively, Raleigh is clearly the superior player, providing 10.9 Framing Runs and +7 Fielding Run Value as a catcher which is easily the most valuable defensive position in baseball.
When it comes to what typically wins the MVP, I believe Aaron Judge’s advantages have usually resulted in winning the MVP award.
Mike Trout’s dominance issued in a new era of voting, writers began ignoring team success (which we’ll talk about) and caring more about metrics like WAR and OPS.
His defeat at the hands of Miguel Cabrera, who won the Triple Crown in 2012, wouldn’t have occured in today’s game despite the historical significance of the Triple Crown.
We stopped using narratives or team success to determine MVPs, and I think that’s a trend that should continue, with voters showing a preference for offense over defense.
The last time the OPS leader in either the AL or NL didn’t win MVP was in 2021, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up a 1.002 OPS and lost to Shohei Ohtani, who was second in OPS while providing 3 WAR as a pitcher.
That 2021 AL MVP race is perfect for this discussion, since while Ohtani was not the better hitter, voters (correctly) determined that what he provided on the mound more than made up for the offensive gap.
Is it fair to determine that Cal Raleigh’s defense behind the plate makes up for the near 200-point gap in OPS? Based on FanGraphs’ WAR, the answer is that its unconclusive either way, but it still holds an advantage for Aaron Judge.
If you tell me a player has a 0.5 WAR lead on FanGraphs and leads in wRC+, OPS, SLG%, OBP, and OPS+, I’m going to determine that is the superior baseball player.
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Argument #2: Uniqueness Does Not Determine Value or Impact
People make the argument that Aaron Judge won the 2022 AL MVP because of his 62 home runs, and therefore the record-setting season from Cal Raleigh should result in an MVP.
I believe this is an argument made on a false pretense, one that assumes that the shiny 62 number was more impactful than the other incredible feats he accomplished.
Judge had to fend off Shohei Ohtani, who had a ~6 WAR season as a pitcher while having the seventh-best wRC+ in the American League.
I don’t know if I’ll ever see someone be both a top seven hitter and top two pitcher in the American League again in my life, and yet the soon-to-be free agent outfielder came home with his first MVP.
This is because he quite literally had the greatest hitting season ever by a right-handed hitter in terms of FanGraphs WAR (11.1) and wRC+ (206) since integration.
We have seen people surpass that 62 home run mark, albeit with steroids whereas we have never seen someone do what Shohei Ohtani did in our lifetimes.
You can make the arguement that Raleigh should win MVP, but that reason should have nothing to do with uniqueness, which does not directly contribute to more value.
Argument #3: We’re Experiencing Voter Fatigue
As I’ve noted before, the leader in both OPS and WAR tends to win MVP, and while what Cal Raleigh is doing cannot be overlooked, Aaron Judge might be getting punished for his previous success.
He’s already won two MVPs, and this is season would be the third-best over the last four years, something that could play a role in how people perceive the season he’s having.
There are only five right-handed hitters since integration to record a wRC+ at or above 200 in a season (min. 500 PAs), this is Aaron Judge’s third season doing it.
There are no other repeats in here. 60% of those seasons belong to no. 99, and that kind of dominance needs to be put into historical perspective.
Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Miguel Cabrera, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, none of those players have come close to peaking the way Aaron Judge has offensively.
Are we properly appreciating what he’s doing? Who knows, but I’d also like to offer the same kind of courtesy to Cal Raleigh.
Since integration, only 2012 Buster Posey (9.8) and 1972 Johnny Bench (9.2) have recorded more WAR in a season at the catcher position.
We know that anyone within 1 WAR of each other is within the margin of error for the statistic, so there’s an argument to be made that Cal Raleigh is peaking higher than any catcher ever.
He became the first catcher to hit 50 home runs and then became the first to hit 60, this is a year that should be celebrated even if it doesn’t win MVP.
Maybe the issue is that we’re too focused on who we want to see win MVP to appreciate what both of these guys are doing, the same way the 2024 season was spent tearing down Judge and Witt to prop up the other.
This isn’t a race that will end in a robbery, it’s one that will end with a great player adding hardware to their collection, and one that could see them matchup in the postseason.
I walked into this believing Aaron Judge is the MVP without a doubt, and while I do believe he deserves the MVP, if Cal Raleigh wins I’ll be happy to see such a great year end in hardware.
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