Why Did Adam Ottavino Regress in the Postseason? Is This What We’re Going to Get in 2020?

New York Yankees, Adam Ottavino
Oct 17, 2019; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone (17) takes the ball from relief pitcher Adam Ottavino (0) during the eighth inning of game four of the 2019 ALCS playoff baseball series against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

People aren’t sure what Adam Ottavino’s 2019 was, as his regular-season seemed great and then his postseason saw an implosion, with an 8.10 ERA in 3.1 innings with 3 walks. He didn’t lose velocity, nor his spin, nor was severely injured after the postseason or during it. While those are the initial factors looked at when we look at a downward spiral in performance, they aren’t always the only factors involved.

Using peripherals and breaking down Ottavino’s 2019, we can see that there not only were clear signs but signs that were apparent way before the postseason began.

How Good Was Adam Ottavino’s “Stuff”

Using a Statcast site called Baseball Savant, we can look at how Adam Ottavino’s stuff was beyond excellent, with a 27.6% Hard hit rate, .293 xSLG, .271 xWOBA, and a mere 85.1 MPH average velocity against. His slider and sinker combo worked magic, with his slider having an unreal 35.3% whiff rate and his Sinker only having 1 home run hit off of it. Ottavino didn’t just have good stuff, he had otherworldly stuff, so what the hell went wrong with Otto?

Walk It To ‘Em Otto

Adam Ottavino walked 14.1% of all batters he faced, for a 5.43 BB/9, which is beyond bad. This meant his WHIP skyrocketed to a 1.31, as he only gave up 7 more hits than batters walked. The thing is that we could’ve seen this from a mile away, as his xFIP was a 4.32 and his SIERA and 4.09, two stats that really punish a pitcher for giving up walks, and so the Yankees and baseball fans had ample time to see this coming, but why didn’t we?

Well, the thing is that over-performing metrics isn’t anything new at all, I love xFIP and SIERA, but they often don’t get used for one-year windows. A player usually doesn’t just have his peripherals rear their ugly head until projections for the next season, but it came in October. Does this mean Otto will be bad next year? No, I think if he has better command then his stuff is very much so still there. Pitching is an art, and with art, you need to be refined even if you have all the skills in the world. A great slider is going to help a lot but knowing how to throw it for a strike is crucial as well.

Ottavino can be great next year, but it all comes down to his command. Next year he can have a 2.50 ERA and a 3.00 FIP and xFIP if he can at least get his walk percentage down to like 10%.