The Yankees might get the best version of Will Warren in 2026

The Yankees will need to lean on rotation depth to open 2026 as Gerrit Cole rehabilitates from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Rodon recovers from bone chip removal surgery. They’ll get both back within the next few months, but the Yankees have plenty of arms to consider while navigating the vacancy.

One of those pieces is Will Warren, entering his second full season in the majors. The 26-year-old posted a 4.44 ERA last season across 162.1 innings with 9.48 strikeouts per nine. Those are respectable numbers for a back-end starter, but the underlying metrics tell a more complicated story.

The Problem Is Everything Besides the Fastball

Warren’s fastball is tremendous, despite averaging only 93.3 mph. It produced a .216 batting average last season, which is borderline elite. But everything else? Rough. His sweeper was awful, posting a .336 batting average with a .569 slugging rate. When hitters can sit dead-red and eliminate half your arsenal, you’re not surviving in the big leagues.

If he can improve the sweeper and changeup, Warren transforms from a fringe fifth starter into a legitimate mid-rotation piece. The Yankees will ask him to eat innings, but he needs to stop leaving breaking balls over the middle of the plate.

Spring Training Dominance

Warren has been solid so far in spring training, tossing 3.2 scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday afternoon. He gave up one hit and collected three strikeouts, lowering his spring ERA to 1.42. It’s a small sample, but the command looked sharper, and the secondary pitches had more bite than we saw last season.

“I think he’s really talented. I think he’s got all the weapons,” Aaron Boone said recently. “He’s confident. So I know there’s more, and I know he expects that.”

That confidence is critical for his development. Warren knows he has an opportunity to stake his claim to a rotation spot not just for April, but for the entire season. The Yankees penciled him into the Opening Day rotation alongside Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil. Boone confirmed as much on MLB Network Radio, saying the team is done shopping for starters and will ride with the depth they’ve assembled.

Why His 93 MPH Fastball Plays Up

What makes Warren’s fastball so effective is his extension. He releases the ball closer to home plate than most pitchers, which makes his fastball appear faster than it actually is. Think of it like a shortstop with a quick release throwing to first. The ball doesn’t travel as far, so it arrives quicker. Warren’s extension creates the same effect, effectively adding two or three miles per hour of perceived velocity.

That’s why hitters struggle to catch up to a pitch that Statcast clocks at 93 mph. By the time their brain processes the pitch and triggers the swing, the ball is already on them. It’s a physical advantage that can’t be taught, and it’s the foundation of everything Warren does on the mound.

The question is whether he can develop the secondary weapons to complement it effectively. If the sweeper becomes even average, Warren becomes dangerous. If he can locate the changeup down and away to lefties, he becomes a legitimate weapon. But if he continues getting torched on breaking balls left in the zone, he’ll be back in Triple-A by June.

The Yankees need Warren to be good this season. Not great, not dominant, just good. They need him to give them 170 innings with an ERA in the high 3’s and enough strikeouts to keep the bullpen fresh. If he can do that while Cole and Rodon work their way back, he’ll have earned a permanent spot in this rotation for years to come.

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