The Yankees are entering the 2026 season with a rotation built on a foundation of hope, and the cornerstone of that hope is the return of Gerrit Cole. After missing the entire 2025 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, the narrative in the Bronx is that the ace will return to his throne and lead the staff back to the promised land.
However, the harsh reality of medical science and aging curves suggests the Yankees might be setting themselves up for a significant disappointment. While Cole’s work ethic is legendary, physiology is undefeated, and expecting a 35-year-old pitcher to immediately recapture Cy Young form after reconstructive elbow surgery is not just optimistic—it is dangerous.
The “Tommy John Hangover” Is Real
The timeline for Cole’s return already puts the Yankees at a disadvantage. His rehab is expected to bleed into the regular season, likely costing him the first few weeks as he finishes his ramp-up. But simply getting back on the mound is only half the battle. Historical data on pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery shows that while velocity often returns relatively quickly, command and “feel” can take a full season to stabilize.
We are likely to see a version of Cole that battles high pitch counts, struggles to put hitters away efficiently, and lacks the pinpoint location that made him dominant. The “honeymoon phase” of his return could quickly turn into a grind where he looks less like an ace and more like a mid-rotation innings eater trying to survive. For a team with World Series aspirations, waiting for their No. 1 starter to essentially treat 2026 as a rehab assignment is a luxury they cannot afford.
Father Time Is Undefeated
The biggest variable working against Cole is his age. Recovering from Tommy John at 25 is a vastly different physical challenge than doing it at 35. Cole has thrown over 1,900 innings in his career, and that mileage doesn’t just disappear. We have seen power pitchers like Justin Verlander defy the odds, but for every outlier, there are a dozen pitchers who return from surgery with diminished stuff. If Cole’s fastball sits at 94 mph instead of 97 mph, and his slider lacks its usual bite, the Yankees will be paying $36 million for a pitcher who is merely “good” rather than “great.”
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A Rotation Built on “Ifs”
The danger of relying on a compromised Cole is that it forces the front office to take desperate swings elsewhere to compensate. We have already seen reports that the Yankees trading for Edward Cabrera could blow up in their face, largely because they are trying to buy high-upside volatility to cover for the lack of certainty at the top of the rotation. If Cole is effectively a No. 3 starter in 2026, and acquisitions like Cabrera fail to launch, the Yankees’ rotation could crumble under the weight of its own question marks.
The Yankees need to prepare for a season where Gerrit Cole is mortal. If they go into Opening Day expecting the 2023 version of their ace, they are likely to find themselves scrambling for answers by June.
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