Alexander Wilson
There’s a version of this conversation where we chalk up what Ben Rice is doing to a small sample in April and move on. That version doesn’t hold up anymore. Through 19 games, the New York Yankees first baseman is hitting .339/.459/.746 with six homers, 16 RBIs, and a 230 wRC+, meaning he’s been 130% better than the average MLB hitter. He’s evolving into something special.
Rice is currently on pace for 51 home runs. That number will come down as pitchers adjust and the sample grows, but the underlying quality of what he’s doing doesn’t come down with it. He’s ranking in the 96th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and walk rate. Those four categories together represent the full picture of an elite hitter, someone who is getting to the best part of the baseball consistently, doing real damage when he does, and earning free passes when pitchers try to pitch around him. Rice is doing all of it simultaneously.
The One Thing to Watch
The strikeout rate has climbed to 27.1% this season, up from 18.9% last year, and that’s the one area where there’s room for genuine improvement. Rice will need to bring that number back down as he faces more pitchers seeing him for the second and third time this season. Pitchers are going to attack him differently once they’ve built up a book on his tendencies, and his ability to adapt his two-strike approach is going to be what separates a great first half from a consistent full season.
That said, strikeout rate is the least alarming concern when everything else in the profile is at this level. A hitter who strikes out a quarter of the time but barrels the ball at an elite rate in every plate appearance that doesn’t end in a strikeout is still one of the most dangerous hitters in a lineup. The power makes the strikeouts tolerable. The walk rate makes sure the plate appearances that end in strikeouts don’t completely erase the value he generates elsewhere.
Why the Left-Handed Hitting Numbers Matter
Rice hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season is significant because it removes the platoon question that Aaron Boone kept using to justify sitting him against lefties earlier in the year. If he’s hitting .286 against southpaws, there’s no statistical argument for keeping him out of the lineup based on matchup. He should be getting four or five at-bats every single night, and that conversation should be closed.
The Defense Is Better Than the Numbers Suggest
The -3 defensive runs saved and -2 outs above average at first base look rough on paper, but first base is genuinely one of the harder defensive metrics to evaluate over small samples, and Rice has looked more comfortable at the position than those numbers reflect. The footwork has improved measurably from last season. His ability to scoop low throws has gotten cleaner. First base takes time to master when you came up as a catcher, and Rice is ahead of schedule in that transition.
The Yankees drafted him in the 12th round out of Dartmouth in 2021. He was never supposed to be this. And yet here he is, 19 games into the season, looking like one of the five or six most dangerous hitters in the American League. Whatever the Yankees thought they were getting when they invested in his development, this is considerably better.
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