Ryan Garcia
Austin Wells struck out three times last night as he contributed to the Yankees’ poor at-bats with runners in scoring position in last night’s loss to the Mets.
It’s been a brutal season for the lefty catcher, who was a hot week away from winning AL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and looked like a potential long-term option for the team at a premium position.
The optimism I had for him has not aged well, and the data that once served as evidence for the notion that he would blossom into a strong hitter is now indicating the profile at the plate is collapsing.
We are in some dangerous territory with Austin Wells’ offensive game, and while there’s time for the season to turn, it’s looking more and more bleak as each day passes by.
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Why I’m Growing More Worried About Austin Wells’ Future
Austin Wells’ bat has slipped from his 2024 season, while last season he consolidated his swing decision quality to generate more damage to his detriment, he’s done the inverse in 2026.
The swing decisions have improved but the quality of contact has plummeted, and there aren’t any indicators to suggest that this is going to turn around in the near future.
He is getting unlucky, there’s a .216 BABIP and a 9.1% HR/FB% that likely will improve as the season goes on, but his process at the plate indicates this is a below-average hitter.
The Zone Contact% has slipped to a new low (81.5%) while the Zone Swing% has dropped from 71.5% to 66.4% from 2025 to 2026, meaning he’s taking more strikes and missing more strikes when he actually swings.
While he is expanding the zone less than he did in 2025, it’s still worse than his 2024 Chase% which means the trade-offs in power, aggression, and contact aren’t really worth the boost to his walk rate.
This is still an elite defender behind the plate, but the offense is cratering to a point where the Yankees should consider what the next steps for the position look like.
Wells has a .297 xwOBA and an 87 wRC+ since 2025 while J.C. Escarra has a .301 xwOBA and a 69 wRC+ over that same timespan, doesn’t the underlying data suggest at this point that these two provide similar offensive outputs?
Defensively I’d argue for Wells over Escarra, but the point being made here is that the gap between the team’s starting catcher and backup catcher has deteriorated rapidly from the start of 2025 to right now.
If the gap between the two has disappeared and there’s a strong market for a defensive-minded catcher as we saw with the Patrick Bailey trade, then maybe there’s some manuvering the Yankees could do here.
Ryan Jeffers Could Be the Yankees’ Solution
Ryan Jeffers is an excellent hitter who has started to combine his rapid contact gains over the last two seasons with massive bat speed gains as well.
The balanced approach is exactly what the offense could use with the deficiencies the bottom of the order has had against left-handed pitching especially, and his defense isn’t something I’d be too worried about.
Not only has he been a career-long solid framer, but the Yankees are the best organization in baseball when it comes to improving catching defense.
I’m not too worried that Jeffers, who has flashed elite defensive abilities in the past, can’t maintain his league-average defensive output or even improve on it in the Bronx.
Usually I’d advocate against downgrading at catcher, but that’s usually because the options presented include downgrading when looking at a cumulative stat like WAR.
That is not the case here; Wells is on pace to produce a 1-2 WAR season on FanGraphs, and while he should improve enough offensively to finish closer to 2-2.5 WAR, Jeffers looks like a potential 4 WAR player.
Ryan Jeffers has the fifth-best wRC+ among qualified catchers since 2023 (120), only surpassed by Willson Contreras, Cal Raleigh, William Contreras, and Will Smith.
A one-year rental, the Yankees would not only be able to still retain Austin Wells in a backup role and re-use him as a starter if the team opts against retaining Jeffers.
There’s no long-term conflict here and there’s a massive short-term benefit if he continues to display a good combination of bat-to-ball abilities and power output.
Jeffers is also comfortable DH’ing if needed which can keep Wells in the lineup against a tough RHP or if the team has an injury to Giancarlo Stanton.
He isn’t a perfect player, but he’s a firmly above-average starter at the position with skills that the Yankees lack in the bottom half of the offense; this is a target to circle at the deadline.
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