Right now the Yankees have six starters for their rotation, but all of that could change if they decide to move an arm for a bat. Brian Cashman has always gone out and acquired pitching even if the team has a perceived surplus, and given the high injury risk that pitchers come with, it makes sense. All it takes is a couple of pitches to tear a UCL, and pitchers often require a longer build-up than position players after an injury. Furthermore, you could always have more top-of-the-rotation talent, and this class is loaded with starters.
These five pitchers present various options at different price points, and the Yankees could import one of them to shore up their pitching staff this winter.
Could Walker Buehler Be the Perfect Matt Blake Project?
Last season was a struggle for Walker Buehler, who made 16 starts with a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP, striking out 18.6% of batters faced across 75.1 innings pitched. His stuff took a dip as his fastball didn’t have the same life on it that it had in years past and he couldn’t miss nearly as many bats, but that corrected itself in the postseason. Buehler saw everything in his arsenal improve in October, and he made some adjustments to have a much deeper repertoire with his sweeper and sinker becoming real weapons for him.
Paired with a four-seamer, cutter, and curveball, Buehler has distinct movement profiles that can make him tough to pick up if he can continue to mix them in well. There are plenty of risks here; if Walker Buehler’s improved movement was a product of added adrenaline in the playoffs, then he could struggle a ton in New York and find himself rendered completely ineffective over the course of a full season. If the price is right, this is a risk more than worth taking for the Yankees if they decide to add a starter, but they should be ready to pull-the-plug on him if things go south.
We could see Walker Buehler sign a two-year $26 million deal with the second year being a mutual option that comes with a $3 million buyout. It guarantees that Buehler will make $16 million if the Yankees decline the option, and of course, if he declines the option, he will get to hit free agency and will walk away with $13 million from the Yankees to go with a laundry list of suitors waiting to pay him long-term.
The Best Value Free Agent on the Market?
Shane Bieber made two starts this season where he tossed 12 innings with 20 strikeouts and zero runs allowed before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John Surgery, but he expects to have what he describes as a semi-normal Spring Training. While he likely won’t get on a Major League mound until closer to May or June, his extended track record of success should make him an attractive rebound target for any contender.
From 2021-2023, Bieber posted a 3.22 ERA with 439 strikeouts across 424.2 innings, and his connection with Matt Blake might give the Yankees an edge here. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner attributes his breakout to Matt Blake, who was with Cleveland during his 2019 season when Shane Bieber made his first All-Star team and struck out 259 batters across 214.1 innings. Their strong relationship could create a seamless transition to New York.
It’ll be hard to gauge how much Shane Bieber will get in free agency; his fastball velocity did go up a tad bit after working with Driveline over the winter and his curveball is still one of the best pitches in the sport. Like Walker Buehler, I believe a two-year deal at around $13 million of AAV would make sense, with the second year being an option year that either party could decline. A former Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber could be a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2025.
READ MORE: Yankees must out-bid two rivals to land Juan Soto
Going After a Hot Commodity on the Market
Making 32 starts, Yusei Kikuchi posted a 4.05 ERA with a 3.46 FIP, as he struck out 28% of batters faced over 175.2 innings pitched. He struggled with the Blue Jays as he had a 4.75 ERA before being traded, but the Astros ended up acquiring him and making his pitch mix a lot better. With Houston, Kikuchi increased his slider usage from 16.8% to 37.1% and decreased the usage of his curveball and fastball by 13.2% and 7.9% respectively. As a result, he posted a 2.70 ERA with the Astros, striking out 31.8% of batters faced and going 5-1.
Yusei Kikuchi will likely take a shorter-term deal as well since he’s already 33 years old, but his stuff and upside would indicate that he could be one of the better left-handed pitchers in baseball next season. Since Houston didn’t get to extend the Qualifying Offer to him, I expect the bidding and market for the veteran to be robust, as teams won’t lose draft picks for signing him. It could make his price tag a bit higher than some would feel comfortable paying, but I think there’s a real chance he’s a 3-4 WAR pitcher next year.
The Yankees could use an arm that can punch tickets the way that Yusei Kikuchi does, and the Astros showed that the secret is in his dominant slider. I think he’ll sign a three-year $66 million deal, with a fourth-year option that’s performance-based.
The Yankees Should Consider a Reunion With this Veteran
Nathan Eovaldi made 29 starts and posted a 3.80 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 23.9% strikeout rate across 170.2 innings. The right-hander is the kind of veteran that would immediately slot into the second or third spot of any World Series contender’s rotation, as he has solid strikeout numbers and keeps the ball on the ground a ton. His four-seam fastball still sits around 95 MPH with his dominant splitter and strong curveball, and I think he can bring the Yankees some more stability in the rotation.
Nathan Eovaldi has had an 11.9 fWAR since 2021, which ranks in the top 20 among starting pitchers over that stretch, and the Yankees would with a pitcher who has the pedigree to pitch in the regular and postseasons. He has a 3.05 ERA and 82 strikeouts across 79.2 innings in the playoffs, including his latest playoff run with the Rangers in 2023 when he posted a 2.95 ERA across six starts and brought them their first World Series title in franchise history. There are some injury concerns especially as he turns 35 at the start of Spring Training, but he likely won’t command long-term money.
A two-year $40 million deal would likely get the job done, and while the incumbent Rangers have a ton of interest in re-signing him, the Yankees could make an aggressive bid for his services.
READ MORE: Yankees should explore a trade for this talented reliever to boost the bullpen
Pushing All the Chips In for the Best Starter In Free Agency
Blake Snell was incredible last season after a horrific start to his season, as the left-hander made 20 starts where he posted a 3.12 ERA with a 2.43 FIP, striking out 34.7% of batters faced over 104 innings pitched. He’s got some of the best stuff in baseball and in my eyes has become the best pitcher in this free-agent class, as he made some key adjustments and dominated hitters down the stretch. After returning from the IL, Snell’s stuff was sharper and he posted a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts over 80.1 innings.
His four-seamer saw an uptick in velocity as he got more swings and misses on it, and the Yankees have had interest in the southpaw before. Last winter they were trying to fit Blake Snell into their tight budget after trading for Juan Soto, but now he’ll hit free agency as the best pitcher on the market with by far the best swing-and-miss stuff. His curveball, changeup, and slider all had whiff rates above 40%, and hitters did zero damage on contact when they put a ball in play against him.
It’s highly unlikely that the Yankees will find a way to sign both Juan Soto and Blake Snell, but if they were to miss out on Soto this should be one of the first players they pivot to. There’s no Qualifying Offer attached to Blake Snell, which makes him even more desirable as teams won’t have to spend a draft pick to add him, and I think he’ll sign a six-year deal at $180 million.