Playing for the New York Yankees comes with a level of pressure that plenty of players have struggled with despite their decorated backgrounds of success. It would be hard to consider Jazz Chisholm an established star in this league, as his offensive numbers are mostly mediocre in his career. We’ve seen flashes of stardom, as in 2022 the flashy infielder posted a 136 wRC+ and made his first All-Star Game, donning the cover of MLB The Show 23 before making the change to centerfield in 2023.
For the next year and a half following that moment, he was a 103 wRC+ hitter who struggled to stay on the field and hadn’t lived up to the star label that he received a couple of years ago. With a trade to the Yankees, the pressure would be on for the 26-year-old to prove he could be a difference-maker, and after setting a franchise record for the most home runs in a player’s first 12 games with the Yankees, he’s looking like a star again.
A new-and-improved version of Jazz Chisholm, bringing a level of self-confidence we haven’t seen since he was tearing the cover off of the baseball in his breakout campaign.
Jazz Chisholm Is Aggressively Chasing Damage Contact
On the day that the Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm from the Marlins, he was sporting a solid 102 wRC+, which would certainly help this lineup but it wasn’t supposed to change the complexion of it. They were aggressively looking for another big-time trade, pursuing Yandy Diaz who ultimately stayed put, or Isaac Paredes who found a new home in Wrigley Field. That being said, among all of the hitters traded this deadline, one could argue that Chisholm has had the greatest impact thus far.
With a 202 wRC+ and .740 SLG%, Chisholm has been one of the best hitters on this team thus far, and that’s thanks to an approach change in New York. It was interesting to see Jazz Chisholm wearing a shirt that said the number “314”, a reference to the infamous short porch in right field, saying that his plan that day was based on the shirt he was wearing: hit the ball over the right field wall. He wasn’t kidding when he said it, and the changes in his batted ball data are pretty eye-popping:
There’s a massive increase in pulled flyball rate, but there’s also an increase in how often Jazz Chisholm is lifting the all, which has allowed him to avoid easy groundballs and harmless contact. The last time we saw the Bahama native post a groundball rate that low was in his 2022 season, a year where he posted a 136 wRC+ and rose to stardom. Most hitters who come to New York try to shorten their swing and force contact because of how embarrassing it can be to strike out multiple times in a game and hit a slide where you can’t make contact.
When you try to pull the ball more, it means deciding to swing earlier than usual, and that gives a hitter less time to read a pitch and properly assess where it could end up. Furthermore, when you try to get more loft in your swing, it comes at the sacrifice of zone coverage, meaning Chisholm is opening himself up to a lot of chases and whiffs. An interesting reply I received when I mentioned his adjustments came from well-known YouTuber And That’s Baseball, who astutely pointed out that struggles could cause him to abandon his approach with the way strikeouts are villanized.
Remember the story I referenced regarding Jazz Chisholm’s first media availability session at home? Well, Chisholm would see the ugly side of trying to pull and elevate more often, striking out 42.9% of the time with just three hits in 21 trips to the plate. Chisholm would even have just his fifth-ever Golden Sombrero, meaning he struck out four different times in the same game. How’d he respond? Launching three home runs and a double in his next four games and continuing to torch pitchers.
READ: The Yankees may have their long-term solution at third base
Swinging the bat harder is something that comes with drawbacks, but it also comes with some added success against velocity, and Chisholm has seen his SLG% go from .391 to .833 against that pitch since switching teams. The progression offensively has been incredible to watch, and while he’ll have to cool off eventually, seeing him make a change that has held him back from reaching his potential is really encouraging. The question is whether this is a blip in the radar or a change for good, and he’ll have to answer that while he learns a new position as well.
The thing I really like about Jazz Chisholm is that even when he doesn’t hit, there’s a way for him to contribute value on multiple fronts.
Yankees Are Getting a Well-Rounded Player At Third Base
A mental error that saw Jazz Chisholm unsuccessfully tag a runner at third instead of just stepping on the bag might be fresh on your mind, but the defensive value at third base has been unbelievable early on. For a player just learning how to handle the hot corner, he’s really held his own there, showing off his array of excellent tools that include great range and mobility alongside an excellent arm that allows him to easily make throws from various angles and fielding positions.
He already has +2 DRS and +2 OAA there, and while I expect him to slow down defensively and make some mistakes that come from not knowing the positions, the physical gifts are perfect for a third baseman. The Yankees needed some more athleticism on the dirt and while DJ LeMahieu is an aging infielder who doesn’t provide much offensively, he was an excellent defender there and it would affect their pitching staff if they went from a good defender to a below-average one after the deadline.
Defense is often one of the most overlooked parts of a player’s ability to generate value, and while I think he would be a better fit at second base defensively, he could very well become a strong defensive third baseman as well. The ability to provide value on that side of the ball can take a player to another level, and it’s why he’s been one of the 40 most valuable position players in the sport according to Fangraphs’ version of WAR. The other reason why is his excellent baserunning skills, as he’s 10th in BsR (3.9) and steals (25) as well.
The Yankees are one of the slowest teams in baseball, and having someone like Jazz Chisholm bring a threat on the basepaths should allow this offense to create runs in different ways. This season, the Yankees are dead-last in BsR (-15.0) and it’s because they’re one of the three slowest teams in baseball in terms of Sprint Speed. It opens them up to double plays and other outs that have hurt their ability to turn in run-scoring innings in critical spots. With the new stolen base rules, you’d think the Yankees would be able to take advantage, but that simply has not been the case.
An elite baserunner who has shown the ability to play third base at a pretty high level almost immediately, Jazz Chisholm’s ability to provide all-around value should make him a weapon for this team. With that being said, when his numbers eventually self-correct, what can we expect him to even out to?
Can the Real Jazz Chisholm Please Stand Up?
The goal now is to try and project what Jazz Chisholm will be down the stretch, which a metric like ZiPS can do pretty accurately. Median outcomes aren’t what a player will 100% become, but rather what’s evenly as likely to happen as it is likely to not happen. ZiPS projects Jazz Chisholm for a 119 wRC+, which is roughly where hitters such as Matt Chapman have resided for the last three seasons on average. You’re getting the better defender in Chapman but the better baserunner in Chisholm, so it’s not crazy to say that Jazz could compare to a backend top-10 player at the hot corner.
His 0.9 WAR projection over 36 games is an estimate of roughly 3.8 fWAR per 150 games, and to keep the comparison to Matt Chapman going, that’s just 0.1 WAR worse than the Platinum Glove winning third baseman. I think I’d comfortably sign up for a 3.5-4.0 WAR player at third base, especially given the star power they have with the fearsome duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe tracking for 3-4 WAR seasons alongside the offensive contributions of Giancarlo Stanton help their cause, but the addition of Chisholm changes things.
What makes baseball both beautiful and ugly is that this could end up taking a turn in a direction that we shouldn’t expect, for better or worse. Maybe Jazz Chisholm really has unlocked the player he was in 2022 and posts a 140 wRC+ the rest of the way, he would pace for a 119 wRC+ on the season and a 157 wRC+ with the Yankees. There’s no way to know for certain what the Yankees will get from Jazz Chisholm for the remainder of the season, but he’s doing a lot of very good things all over the baseball diamond right now.
Whether it’s hitting the ball with authority at the plate or making some excellent plays at the hot corner, Chisholm is playing some smooth Jazz right now, and the Yankees are hoping it’s enough to bring a deep playoff run.