Alexander Wilson
The New York Yankees are a few weeks away from Opening Day with plenty of reasons to feel good. The rotation is deeper than it has been in years, Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge, and the lineup projects as one of the scariest in the American League. But a quiet, uncomfortable story is building in Tampa, and it centers on Trent Grisham.
Against the Atlanta Braves on Friday afternoon, Grisham struck out twice over three at-bats. His spring slash line now sits at .160/.250/.200. The slugging percentage is lower than the on-base percentage. That is not a typo, and it is not a good sign.
Nobody is calling this a crisis. Spring training numbers are what they are. But the Yankees would have liked to see Grisham at least flash the version of himself that earned a $22 million qualifying offer. So far, he looks a lot more like the player he was before 2025 than the one who broke out.
What Grisham Delivered in 2025
Context matters here. Grisham’s 2025 season was legitimately impressive and worth remembering before writing him off. He appeared in 406 plate appearances batting leadoff, hitting 23 home runs with 43 RBIs from that spot alone. He finished the year with 34 home runs overall, a career-high by a wide margin. His previous best was 17. He posted a .235/.348/.464 slash line, a 129 wRC+, and an .811 OPS. According to Baseball Savant, his elite chase rate put him in the 99th percentile for plate discipline.
The Yankees extended the qualifying offer knowing that production was a career outlier. Grisham accepted it knowing the same thing. Both sides made a calculated bet. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman called it a true coin flip in November. “At this point, that $22 million looks like a bargain, the way the free-agent market got away from everybody,” Cashman said on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio. “We’re really happy that he chose to stay with us. Hopefully, he can replicate what he did last year.”
The 29-year-old has made clear he wants another strong season to leverage heading into free agency in 2027. The motivation is there. The results, at least in March, are not.
The Defensive Piece That Complicates Things
Grisham’s struggles are not limited to the bat this spring. He came into camp openly acknowledging that his defense fell apart in 2025, finishing with a career-worst minus-11 defensive runs saved, the fourth-worst mark among center fielders who played at least 1,000 innings. “I knew I was down towards the bottom of that list last year, so I kind of took that personally this offseason,” Grisham told reporters. “I definitely wanted to get better and get back to how I was when I was younger.”
The defense is coachable. The swing decisions that plagued him in the postseason, when he hit .138/.219/.207 with a 31.3% strikeout rate, are the more pressing concern. That same strikeout rate has followed him into spring camp. At some point, a pattern becomes a signal.
Why Ben Rice Makes Sense at the Top of the Order
The Yankees do not have to wait for Grisham to get right before fixing the leadoff spot. Ben Rice is making the case every time he steps in the box, and the data has been pointing in this direction for months.
I broke down the argument in detail earlier this week. Over an 84-at-bat sample batting leadoff in 2025, Rice slashed .226/.363/.548 with seven home runs and a .911 OPS. He ranked tied for seventh in the majors in hard-hit percentage at 56.1% and tied for ninth in average exit velocity at 93.3 mph. Those are not spring flukes. Those are repeatable, underlying traits. The full breakdown is worth reading.
The comp that keeps coming up is Kyle Schwarber in Philadelphia. Rice does not need to slap singles and steal bases to be an effective leadoff hitter. He needs to work counts, get on base, and make pitchers pay when they come into the zone. He does all three.
The Bottom Line
No, Yankees fans should not panic about Trent Grisham. He will be in the lineup every day and he will hit. The track record from 2025 is real, and one cold March does not erase it.
But the leadoff spot is a separate conversation entirely. Moving Rice to the top of the order is not a punishment for Grisham. It is the best lineup construction decision Aaron Boone can make right now. Grisham in the five or six hole still does damage. Rice leading off in front of Judge gives this offense its highest ceiling.
The Yankees know what their best lineup looks like. Now they just have to be willing to write it out.
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