Alexander Wilson
The Yankees won an absolute shootout Monday night, and you can read all about Trent Grisham carrying the offense and the full 11-10 recap here. The New York Yankees needed every run they scored because the pitching gave up ten of their own. Jake Bird was sent back to the minors after giving up three earned runs without recording more than three outs across four hits, which was bad enough. But the bigger concern walking out of Monday night is Camilo Doval, who allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a homer across 1.1 innings and now owns a 7.36 ERA on the season.
When the Yankees traded for Doval, the idea was to pair him with David Bednar and build one of the more formidable late-inning combinations in the American League. That vision has not materialized, and the numbers are starting to paint a clear picture of why.
What’s Actually Going Wrong
His Statcast page tells the story bluntly. Doval ranks in the 7th percentile in hard-hit rate, with batters making hard contact on 55% of balls in play against him. That is not a soft-contact pitcher getting unlucky. That is a pitcher whose pitches are getting found consistently, and the location issue is at the center of it.
The walk rate improvement is real and worth acknowledging. He has cut it to 3.7%, which addresses the control problems that defined his worst stretches in San Francisco. But keeping the ball in the zone is only valuable if you’re putting it in the right part of the zone, and right now Doval isn’t doing that with his slider.
On 27.8% usage, batters are hitting .444 against his slider with a 1.000 slugging percentage. That pitch is getting destroyed. The problem isn’t the pitch itself, it’s the location. The slider is catching too much of the bottom of the strike zone, sitting right in the middle of the plate where batters can get their arms extended and do damage. He needs to push it more to the outer third, forcing hitters to reach for it and making clean contact nearly impossible. When that pitch is working and landing outside, it’s genuinely a put-away offering. Right now it’s a batting practice pitch to anyone sitting on it.
The cutter has actually been his best pitch, with batters hitting only .200 against it, which is a positive sign. If he can get the slider back to where it needs to be location-wise, the combination of those two pitches should make him a completely different reliever.
What Happens If It Doesn’t Correct
The Yankees need patience here, but patience only goes so far when you’re talking about a high-leverage bullpen arm with a 7.36 ERA. If Doval can’t correct the slider command over the next month, the Yankees will have to think about finding another option at the trade deadline, because you can’t go into the second half of the season relying on a reliever who’s giving up bombs at that rate.
The good news is the Yankees have plenty of options developing in the pipeline. When Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon return from injury, the organization will have extra starting pitching arms available to shift into relief roles if needed. Carlos Lagrange is in Triple-A and has shown the kind of stuff that could play in late-inning situations whenever the Yankees decide he’s ready. Not to mention, a full healthy rotation gives the bullpen more rest and reduces the pressure on every individual arm.
Doval has shown flashes of being exactly what the Yankees needed. The talent is there. The slider location just has to be fixed, and until it is, every high-leverage appearance is going to feel like a gamble.
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