The Yankees made a significant investment to improve their rotation after losing Juan Soto, as they inked Max Fried to an eight-year deal which made him the highest-paid left-handed pitcher in MLB history.
Max Fried is joining a rotation that finished 10th in ERA- (96) and ninth in K-BB% (15.3) as a group, and the Yankees are hoping that their starting five can be an even bigger strength for them in 2025. As Aaron Boone noted in his first press conference since pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa, the rotation played a huge role in their fast start in 2024, as they were able to give the ball to an above-average starter every night without fail.
Health will play a huge role in how any rotation performs, but from a pure talent perspective, the Yankees could have one of the best starting fives in baseball this upcoming season. A unit with proven aces and talented strikeout pitchers, here’s a breakdown of their projected starting rotation and how they could contribute to the team in 2025.
#1: Gerrit Cole | Age: 34 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 3.64
What Could Go Wrong:
Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury last season has yet to fade from the memories of fans or analysts, as last season gave them a real scare. Entering his age-34 season, last year was the first time that the Yankees had to seriously worry about Cole’s arm health, and it’s the first time that he’s dealt with a serious injury in nearly a decade. His fastball velocity dropped even more this season and I’m not sure that we’ll see him sit 97 MPH in a season again, which will directly impact his swing-and-miss numbers.
An aging veteran who has seen his strikeout rate drop for a fourth-straight season, don’t expect to see Gerrit Cole contend for the strikeout crown in 2025.
What Could Go Right:
Despite my doom-and-gloom about Gerrit Cole’s age, the right-hander still has one of the best arsenals in the game, as his pitch mix ranked in the top 10 in Stuff+ (109) among starters last season with at least 90 IP. The Yankees have an ace who has both the savvy craftiness of a veteran with top-line pitch quality grades, and if Cole can continue to flesh out his arsenal he could get some of the strikeouts he lost last season back. The pitches I’m eyeing are his cutter and slider, which took a step back last season in both Whiff% and wOBA.
Pitches like those are very reliant on command, which Gerrit Cole struggled to hone in his first few starts back from injury. After his rough start to the 2024 season, he posted a 2.67 ERA and 3.03 xERA across his final 13 outings. I would also like to add that Gerrit Cole’s sinker could help him since it would give him a third fastball, and that could be the secret to performing better against right-handed batters than he did in 2024.
Gerrit Cole is an ace. He has proven it every single year; I am more than willing to throw away a four-start blemish to give him grace.
#2: Max Fried | Age: 31 | B/T: L/L | Proj. ERA: 3.43
What Could Go Wrong:
Similar to Gerrit Cole, Max Fried has had some recent elbow trouble and has spent time on the IL almost annually throughout his Major League career. His injury history leaves me extremely concerned about how long he’ll remain healthy and effective, especially with how he relies on command to excel. Gerrit Cole needed about a month to get his command locked down and he was getting shelled when he couldn’t locate, and his raw stuff is better than Fried’s by a considerable margin.
Time on the IL can completely derail your season, and the Yankees need to be cautious with how they build Max Fried up and pray he doesn’t get hurt.
What Could Go Right:
When Max Fried is dialed in, he’s an absolute joy to watch on the mound.
Since 2020, no one has a better ERA than Max Fried, and his stuff is both above-average while having an excellent track record with his command. I wondered how the Yankees could help Fried limit damage contact better than he did last season, but he seemed to do the heavy lifting on that development last season. The debut of a new sweeper in September brought about a pitch with 17.4 inches of sweep and 50.1 inches of drop, as batters had a .168 wOBA against the pitch and Fried posted a 2.14 ERA.
Lefties rarely throw sweepers, and even fewer are generating the depth that Fried does on his sweeper, which seems to make the pitch successful even against right-handed batters. It most closely resembles the depth that Danny Coulombe gets on his sweeper, which generated a 41.4% Whiff Rate and .198 wOBA versus right-handed batters since debuting it in 2023. His revamped sweeper allows Fried to attack the top of the zone with fastballs, and it gives him two different breaking balls that could work at the bottom of the zone against righties.
You can’t lose sight of that changeup either, last season both of the Yankees’ lefties took massive strides in terms of changeup Stuff+ and overall effectiveness.
#3: Clarke Schmidt | Age: 29 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 3.91
What Could Go Wrong:
A shoulder injury will always scare me at least a little bit, especially considering how Clarke Schmidt has struggled at times with staying healthy. There are real worries about how his command looked down the stretch since that can be tied to the shoulder injury, and things didn’t get much better in the postseason either. Clarke Schmidt just left too many pitches in the wrong spots of the zone after returning from the IL, and his command could be a telltale sign of how healthy that shoulder ends up being.
The sinker also hasn’t doing what it needs to do; both its wOBA and Stuff+ scores took a noticeable dive, and without that pitch, hitters can rear back and pull the ball against Schmidt. Over his final seven regular and postseason starts, 54.7% of the batted balls Clarke Schmidt allowed were pulled, posting an ugly 4.78 ERA.
What Could Go Right:
Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt had xwOBACONs within one point of each other last season, and no, that’s not a stat that discusses the meat component of a bacon-egg-and-cheese sandwich.
Instead, it stands for Expected Weighted on Base Average on Contact, a fancy way of saying it estimates what your wOBA on batted balls should have been based on different variables such as Exit Velocity and Launch Angle. Schmidt did a similarly good job as Cole last year in terms of expected damage allowed while generating even more whiffs on a per-rate basis. If the Yankees can keep Clarke Schmidt healthy, we could see some more progress being made on the mound in 2025.
The return of Schmidt’s sinker could make it a real groundball pitch again, as in 2024, his sinker only generated a 41.7% GB%. If that pitch can get some more groundballs again we could see Schmidt pitch deeper into games as it opens the door for more double plays and one-pitch outs. Attacking with that pitch on the outer half of the plate could give him some free early-count strikes, putting him ahead in the count and allowing him to expand the zone a bit more with the softer stuff.
A league-average sinker could be a real weapon for Clarke Schmidt, who has all of the tools to become a frontline starter but just needs a firm pitch he can rely on to prevent hitters from sitting on the soft stuff.
#4: Luis Gil | Age: 27 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 4.14
What Could Go Wrong:
An oft-injured pitcher who just smashed through their previous career-high in innings pitched, Luis Gil does have some notable red flags. Back issues during the summer did him in, as even when he returned his mechanics were awkward and his bad command got even worse. Gil is not just a pitcher with bad command, he had the worst Location+ for any pitcher who threw at least 150 innings since the metric was tracked in 2020.
Luis Gil not being a reliable pitcher health-wise or location-wise makes him a walking nightmare to deal with, and there are just not many effective starters who locate poorly in the league. The Yankees need to help Luis Gil throw more fastballs in-zone; it’s the only way he’s ever going to have sustained success and realize his potential.
What Could Go Right:
Before he debuted, Luis Gil had just 247 innings under his belt in the Minor Leagues, which is just a fraction of what Michael King (392.2) and even fewer MiLB innings than Will Warren (258) entering the 2024 season. What he did have was seven starts of experience in the Major Leagues where he flashed a 3.78 ERA in 33.1 innings pitched, but in his first full season in the big leagues, he was a better-than-average pitcher.
The Yankees have needed multiple seasons to fully develop their best starters, with Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Clarke Schmidt, Michael King, and Nestor Cortes as notable examples. A second year of work for Luis Gil could result in some meaningful steps forward, whether it’s improving the shape of one pitch or developing another. He throws freakishly hard, the Yankees really like him, and he’s off to a pretty good start to his pro career. Gil’s age is misleading; this is someone who had under 300 pro innings entering 2024, so this second season could be a fun one for him.
#5: Carlos Rodon | Age: 32 | B/T: L/L | Proj. ERA: 4.04
What Could Go Wrong:
Coming off a career-high in injuries, you have to wonder how Carlos Rodon will hold up with less of a break between the end of the season and the start of camp than normal. The other thing that scares you are the home runs, a problem that can make him far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot. His HR/9 improved from 2023…but that’s because it was 2.10 that season. T
A 1.59 HR/9 and 31 home runs last season isn’t great for someone who before donning the pinstripes had a 0.97 HR/9, and if that repeats in 2025 we could see an ERA in the mid-4.00s. His track record as a starter suggests that we should anticipate an IL stint, and if the home runs continue to be a problem, it could be an ugly third season for Rodon in pinstripes.
What Could Go Right:
Carlos Rodon’s home run issues stem from poor command, as while he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, he does allow a lot of home runs and that’s because he’s serving up mistake pitches. In the second half, the development of his changeup allowed him to post some impressive numbers and finish the season strong, missing tons of bats once again. Could this be the start of a run where Rodon throws more changeups and revitalizes his career? Who knows, but the command of his pitch mix has to improve if he wants to be an ace again.
His Location+ in his two-year run from 2021-2022 was 104 and it has dropped to 97 with the Yankees, and if that can be improved even a tad bit we could be looking at a frontline starter again. The Stuff+ scores are around where they were with the White Sox and Giants after a slight dip in 2023, it’s just a matter of *not* missing your spots as often as Rodon did in 2024. A poorly located pitch isn’t just a pitch that misses the strike zone, it’s not also throwing a pitch in a part of the zone where hitters traditionally do tons of damage.
The pitch to keep an eye on is his cutter, which he debuted last season and messed around with a few times in the postseason, getting some critical outs with that pitch. If that can be a new toy for him in 2025, he might be the pitcher Brian Cashman paid for.
#6: Marcus Stroman | Age: 34 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 4.34
What Could Go Wrong:
Marcus Stroman being here on Opening Day could be a pretty bad omen for the Yankees.
It could be an indication that one of their five starters got hurt or could mean they never freed up the money to acquire an infielder. That’s a tough pill to swallow and it limits what this bullpen can be if there isn’t an injury because you have to carry a pitcher who is worse than the other relievers on the 40-man roster. Trading him might be their best course of action at this rate given how the Yankees are treating the 4th threshold and the fact that he’s missing out on mandatory workouts.
His Stuff+ declined sharply from a 97 to an 88 as a result of a massive drop-off in sinker velocity, and it has made him a highly ineffective pitcher. The outlook here isn’t great for Stroman and both injury and performance concerns could make him highly ineffective. With a vesting option for next season at 140 IP, the Yankees might do everything they can to avoid having him reach that number in 2025.
What Could Go Right:
Maybe Marcus Stroman finds something mechanically that allows him to throw a bit harder, getting back to that 92 MPH fastball that we saw from 2021-2023 where he posted a 3.45 ERA and 3.60 FIP. The Yankees end up having an injury and Marcus Stroman holds the rotation together until that guy comes back, immediately earning the respect of the fanbase back and potentially having his 2026 option picked up.
One semi-interesting note is that Stroman’s command did in fact improve after he had his start skipped, with a 109 Location+ over his final eight outings with a 2.96 FIP. This isn’t to say I think he’s a good pitcher, but there’s that 20% chance that Stroman ends up being a league-average starter.
READ MORE: Yankees hoping to move $18 million starter before solving 3B issue
#7: Will Warren | Age: 26 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 4.42
What Could Go Wrong:
After a disastrous first stint in the Major Leagues, Will Warren having any more struggles in the big leagues to that same extent could result in him losing all of his confidence. Stuff+ would tell us that he has four average to above-average pitches, with his cutter grading out as his best pitch in that metric (118). If Warren isn’t able to shake off the smackdown he got in the big league we could see someone who ends up being a deer in headlights, and that would suck given just how interesting his pitch mix is.
The fear is that those improvements that he can make won’t come to fruition, and the Yankees will find themselves uncomfortable entrusting a rotation spot to the youngster. Trading Marcus Stroman away would push Will Warren to the sixth starter role, and that may end up costing the Yankees games the way that he did last season.
What Could Go Right:
If Will Warren is able to sharpen his arsenal he could suddenly become a weapon for the Yankees, living up to the Michael King comparisons to join this emerging core. The Yankees like Warren a lot and view him as a future MLB starter, and the experience he had in the big leagues could be extremely useful for his development. The right-hander might look to bulk up a little bit, adding some more velocity and keeping his arm strength consistent throughout the season.
He knows how big of a season this could be for Warren, who has the stuff to compete at a high level. He threw four pitches last year with a Stuff+ that’s either equal to or better than the average Stuff+ of its respective pitch group. It wouldn’t shock me if that pitch diversity was the backbone for Will Warren’s success at the next level, and he’s the kind of pitcher who could run a K% in the 24-25% range with a 50% GB%; that would be pretty fantastic.
A version of Will Warren who can sit around 94-95 MPH with the excellent extension he generates on his heaters could be a middle of the rotation starter on a contender for years to come, and he could have some of his development happen here in the Bronx as a reliever as well.
#8: JT Brubaker | Age: 31 | B/T: R/R | Proj. ERA: 4.81
What Could Go Wrong:
JT Brubaker has not pitched in an MLB regular season game since 2022, that’s more than two years of inactivity and rehab. The right-hander had TJS during Spring Training in 2023, and when he came back in 2024, immediately suffered and oblique injury. Even before the surgery, Brubaker had a 4.99 ERA in 315.2 MLB innings, with his fastball velocity slowly declining year by year. The Yankees may not get a healthy version of him and there’s a legitimate argument to make that he would be more valuable as a reliever.
Some have compared JT Brubaker to Luke Weaver, a starter with zero MiLB options who comes into camp as a depth starter and clicks better as a reliever. If the Yankees made Weaver the fifth starter and had Luis Gil in Triple-A, they may had a sub-90-win team when you factor in the loss of a dominant reliever and a potentially catastrophic drop-off in starting production. The Yankees may not have anything to gain from even trying to start Brubaker in the regular season since he could throw a bit harder and miss more bats as a reliever.
What Could Go Right:
During Spring Training in 2023, JT Brubaker developed a unique sweeping breaking ball that he could develop into a real weapon for him in 2025. The right-hander could have a sinker, slider, sweeper, and curveball in his repertoire which would open the door for above-average rotation production. Brubaker is the kind of pitcher who fits the Yankees’ developmental role well, and the Yankees are plucking him from the Pirates.
His command is excellent, and anything he can do to induce more swing-and-miss should be welcomed, because it could change the way we look at him. The best-case scenario, if he doesn’t start, would be having him come out of the bullpen and sit around 95 MPH with his sinker, snapping off sweepers and hard sliders to get whiffs. There’s no reason to look at paying $1.82 million for a good reliever as anything other than a win. He’s also a free agent at the end of the season, so there’s some added motivation for JT Brubaker to perform.