The New York Yankees may or may not win the AL East division when everything is said and done, but barring a colossal collapse, they will almost certainly make the postseason. In the Yanks’ universe, that’s almost an obligation, but keep in mind this team failed to reach that goal last year.
At the moment, the Bombers lead the AL East by one game over the Baltimore Orioles and are 8.5 games ahead of the first non-playoff team, the Boston Red Sox. Again, if nothing weird happens, New York will be in the postseason after a one-year hiatus.
It’s certainly entertaining to think about the scenario. And it’s never early to start making educated guesses about what the roster might look like and, specifically, the pitching staff.
Regardless of if the Yankees make directly into the AL Division Series or if they have to go through the Wild Card series first, most teams implement a three-man rotation at both instances. Only in the AL Championship Series, a fourth starter is required if teams don’t want to send their starters on three days’ rest.
What would the Yankees’ three-man rotation for the start of the postseason should be?
Projecting the Yankees’ three-man rotation for the playoffs today
If he is healthy, they have to send Gerrit Cole out there no matter what. And the Yanks’ ace will most likely answer the call as the quality, elite pitcher he is.
Despite looking off at times and having some issues with his swing-and-miss stuff in certain days, Cole has managed to post a 3.86 ERA in 63 innings, with 69 punchouts. He should get sharper and sharper as he accumulates more action, and will be an asset when October comes.
Things get a bit murkier after that.
There could be as many as five additional hurlers vying for two remaining spots: Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt.
At the moment, Gil and Schmidt are injured so while they are likely among the best pitchers in the staff, they can’t become options until they come back and show they can consistently retire MLB hitters at the pace they once did this year.
The focus, as a result, should be on Rodon, Stroman, and Cortes.
If the Yankees had to choose today, it would be hard to leave Cortes out when he is pitching so well. He had his peaks and valleys this year but boasts a 0.44 ERA in his last three starts, covering 20.2 innings pitched. That would be hard to pass on.
The third spot would be a competition between two steady veterans in Stroman and Rodon. The former seems to be the most reliable option at the moment, posting a 3.88 ERA against Rodon’s 4.31 mark.
Additionally, Rodon’s experience in the playoffs has been limited to 2.2 innings (with four runs allowed) while he was with the Chicago White Sox in 2020-21. Stroman was part of those excellent Toronto Blue Jays teams that made consecutive ALCS in 2015-16, posting a 4.40 in 30.2 innings between the two playoffs.
If the Yankees were playing a postseason series tomorrow, Cole, Cortes, and Stroman would probably be their three-man rotation. They are not, though, so Gil, Schmidt, and Rodon can cement their spots on the staff with a strong finish.
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Cole is the only lock to this point, and there are reasons to think Gil can give the Yankees more upside if he is close to his early-season version. If Schmidt returns to his pre-injury form, watch out.
The only thing we know at this point is that manager Aaron Boone has plenty of options, and not all skippers can say the same.