Matthew Boyd will get the ball for the Cleveland Guardians tonight against the New York Yankees as these two squads square off for Game 3 of the ALCS. With the Yankees holding a 2-0 advantage in the series, this is a massive game as they have a chance to step on Cleveland’s throats and put them in a hole that only one team in MLB history has ever climbed out of (we won’t speak about who). Boyd has yet to allow a run through two playoff starts, striking out 10 in 6.2 innings. The Guardians haven’t asked him to throw deep into games, and after an off-day, their bullpen should be fully ready to go.
Lefties have given the Yankees problems this season, but they’ve beaten up a bit on Matthew Boyd in their previous matchup a few weeks ago. A crafty left-hander who has found new life in his mid-30s, the Yankees can try to force him out of the game early and make Stephen Vogt utilize his bullpen heavily with three straight games to play.
How the Yankees Can Put the Guardians In a Serious Bind in Game 3
When the Yankees faced Matthew Boyd back in late August, they were able to tag him for two home runs and four hits, resulting in three runs across 5.1 innings of work. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both went yard against him and while Boyd is a left-hander, the Yankees do profile pretty well for this kind of matchup. The Yankees have a +5 Run Value and .400 xwOBA against four-seamers at or under 93 MPH, and Boyd sits at 92 MPH on his heaters.
Just as the plan against Tanner Bibee was to try and jump on his fastball, the same rings true for Matthew Boyd, who doesn’t have the overpowering fastball that the Yankees can’t hit. He doesn’t get a ton of ride on it as well, which helps hitters in the lineup who prioritize contact and can generate balls in play that can drop for hits. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton immediately pose massive threats to Boyd, but the supplementary bats should hold their own too.
Anthony Rizzo struggles with firm velocity, which Boyd doesn’t have, and he has the contact rates to potentially make something happen in this game. Anthony Volpe has hit lefties decently in his career and the Yankees are expected to play Jose Trevino, who struggled against LHP this year but had good numbers against them in his career. The player who I think could truly go off? Gleyber Torres.
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This season, Gleyber Torres has a 132 wRC+ and .456 SLG% against left-handed pitchers, and the Yankees’ new leadoff hitter can set the table in front of two hitters who have tagged Boyd already this season. If he sets the table the way he has over the last two months, the Yankees could immediately place pressure on the Guardians’ left-hander, and with this game being the first of potentially three games in a row, there’s a lot to gain for New York.
Pushing Boyd out of the game in the second inning would force Stephen Vogt to use his bullpen as much as possible, and even if the Yankees were to lose in Game 3, it would set them up for the next two games. Clarke Schmidt will get the ball and is tasked with shutting down a Cleveland lineup that gave Gerrit Cole some trouble in his first ALCS start, but this is a huge opportunity for the Yankees.
A 2-0 advantage is great, but this series is far from over. Both the Rangers and Phillies took a 2-0 lead in the Championship Series last year, with the Rangers losing three-straight after and having to seal the series in Houston to advance to the World Series and the Phillies losing four of five to be eliminated at the hands of the Diamondbacks. If the Yankees want to avoid a long series, this third game is a chance for them to vanquish Cleveland’s hopes entirely.
In Clarke Schmidt’s first playoff start, he allowed two runs and four strikeouts across 4.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals. In the regular season and postseason, the Cleveland Guardians had a .298 wOBA and -35 Run Value against right-handed batters, with their struggles coming against pitches that Schmidt frequently uses in his arsenal.
They had the worst wOBA in baseball (.290) against right-handed cutters when you include the regular and postseason while also posting a .240 wOBA against sweepers.
Game 3 of the ALCS is tonight at 5:38 PM EST tonight in Cleveland on TBS as the Yankees and Guardians continue this best-of-seven series.