Ryan Garcia
This past seven-run outing against the Blue Jays was Ryan Weathers’ final start of Spring Training, and it would be easy to think the Yankees should be worried about his 2026 season.
Batters hit .359 against him, his ERA was over 11, and there were three home runs in the span of just 12.1 innings pitched which are not even remotely competitive numbers.
That being said, I would be feeling pretty good about a bet about his ERA being under 4.00 this season despite the hideous results from the Grapefruit League.
People lie but numbers don’t…except when those numbers are used without any context as to when they stabilize or how useful they are in these kinds of environments.
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You’re Caring About Things The Yankees (And Others) Don’t Consider in Spring Training
The first thing we have to grapple with this time of year is that sample sizes are small, so extreme swings in things like ERA, OPS, or even FIP can be influenced by bunches of poor luck outcomes.
Let’s document some of the insanely unlucky things that have occurred to Ryan Weathers throughout Spring Training that would never be attributed to skill by a single rational person in a Major League front office:
- Batting Average on Negative Angle Batted Balls: .611 (MLB Avg in ’25: .172)
- Batting Average on Balls in Play: .525 (MLB Avg in ’25: .289)
- Home Run to Flyball%: 33.3% (MLB Avg in ’25: .11.9%)
This alone could probably explain why the ERA is high, but the underlying metrics would actually argue that Weathers has had a good Spring Training.
What first stood out to me was that Weathers has a 7.1% Barrel% allowed, indicating that he isn’t getting crushed as often as you’d think.
The high exit velocities are mostly coming on the ground, he’s allowed a 60% GB% to this point which isn’t sticky but would further support the theory that he doesn’t deserve to have all-time horrific batting averages allowed.
My final case against the idea that this ERA is even remotely telling of what’s next for Weathers is that he’s maintained excellent whiff rates (32.5%) with a 21.8% K-BB%.
I wanted to see two things for Ryan Weathers; a better sinker and a better slider which we have seen both of to this point.
The sinker has more depth and has been generating a ton of soft groundballs throughout Spring Training, it profiles as a weapon that can really help him especially against lefties.
His bullet slider has some more movement (especially downward action) but I’m not sure if his four-seamer velocity gain is real.
Before his first start of Spring Training I noted that the fastball velocity has spiked this time of year before and then dipped back down a bit, so I’m moreso expecting the 95-97 we saw in 2025.
Here’s the ultimate note from the Grapefruit League; despite what you might think, these guys are less concerned with whether they’re shoving and more concerned with sharpening pitches.
Jake Bird might pitch to try and impress because he’s got a job to earn, but Ryan Weathers has had a guaranteed roster spot since the moment he got traded to the Yankees.
Maybe he stinks for the Yankees or maybe he’s really good, trying to figure that out now is only going to lead to insanity.
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