Alexander Wilson
A year ago this week, Gerrit Cole was sitting in a doctor’s office learning he needed Tommy John surgery. On Tuesday, he will take the mound for two innings against the Chicago Cubs in his final spring tune-up before the New York Yankees open their season in San Francisco without him. The distance between those two moments is staggering, and so is how well the recovery has gone.
I keep coming back to one number from Cole’s spring debut against the Red Sox: 98.7 mph. That was his peak fastball velocity in his very first game action since the 2024 World Series, on only 10 pitches, 377 days removed from elbow reconstruction. Sandy Alcantara took nearly a full season to find himself after Tommy John. Some pitchers come back throwing 93 mph and never fully reclaim what they had. Cole came back sitting 97 and touching 99 like the surgery was a minor inconvenience.
What the Spring Has Shown
The debut itself was clean. One run allowed through some traffic, seven of 10 pitches for strikes, a knuckle curve and slider mixed in alongside the heater. Cole said afterward, per MLB.com, “I had a lot of fun out there. It was very enjoyable. I just wanted to enjoy all of it. That was my goal for today; no reservations, try not to judge yourself too hard and just have fun.”
That mentality matters more than people give it credit for. A pitcher coming back from Tommy John who is tense and mechanical is a different animal than one who goes out there and throws freely. Cole looked free. He looked like himself.
Boone has been careful not to oversell the moment, but the facts speak loudly enough. “The fact that he’s getting into a game now kind of indicates where he is and how well it is going,” the manager told the Associated Press. “I don’t want people to think we’re speeding this thing up or anything. That’s not the case. It’s just — he’s ready to do this.”
Tuesday’s two-inning outing against the Cubs will be Cole’s longest effort of the spring and the most important data point yet. Getting through two clean innings at that velocity, with all three pitches working, would essentially confirm that everything the Yankees have hoped for is tracking on schedule or better.
The Bigger Picture
Cole’s career numbers tell you exactly what this organization has been missing. From 2021 through 2023, he averaged 32 starts and 201 innings per season. He was a perennial Cy Young candidate and the unquestioned anchor of the staff. In 2024, a nerve issue cost him several months before a UCL tear ended his season early, leaving him with just 95 innings and a 3.41 ERA. He did not throw a single pitch in 2025. The Yankees went 94-68 without him and had the best run differential in the American League, which is a credit to Max Fried and the rest of the staff. But they did it knowing Cole was the missing piece.
The target has been late May or early June for his return to the rotation. Given what this spring has produced, I think there is a real chance that gets moved up slightly. Not dramatically and not recklessly, because there is no reason to rush a 35-year-old coming off UCL surgery and risk anything. But an early May return instead of June would not surprise me at all if Tuesday goes the way everyone expects it to.
“So no, we won’t rush that with him, even if it continues to go incredibly well,” Boone said recently. “You’ve got to be cognizant of the innings that he missed last year, and you want to be able to maximize those as much as you can and have him in the best, safest position he is in once he returns to roll.”
That is the right call. The Yankees do not need Cole on April 3. They need him in October. Getting him back healthy and right for a full second half and a postseason run is worth being patient through May. But patience is a lot easier when the arm that comes back is averaging 97 mph like nothing happened.
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