New York Yankees: The Flip of a Quarter at Third base

With Spring Training just around the corner, the nerves and anxiousness that come with seeing the Yankees take the field for the first time in months come with it. All offseason there has been speculation, rumors — some true, others not so much, and many discussions about what the Yankees can do to get even BETTER, with one of the main discussion points; what should the Yankees do about their third base situation.

While there are only two true contenders for the position this upcoming season, I still expect Estrada, Wade, or even LeMahieu to see some time at third this next year. With that, the true candidates are of course Miguel Andujar and 2019 fan favorite, Giovanny Urshela. I am a firm believer in Andujar’s offensive abilities, and I think he can only go up from his 2018 electrifying rookie showcase of a season. Urshela brings a more contact driven approach, and pairs it with a better defense than Dujar. That is the main discrepancy between the two, as it is the universal belief that Gio is the far better defensive man of the pair — thus he deserves the starting spot at the hot corner.

Andujar or Urshela- defensively

However, in this article, I figured I’d discuss the true defensive differences between the two players, and how ultimately playing Andujar at third may not be as costly as one may think. Below is a table comparing a handful of defensive stats of both Urshela and Andujar (* = 2018, info via Fangraphs):

Now, at first look it appears as if Andujar is OBJECTIVELY worse at the position, as the stats seemingly indicate. However, the difference between two guys that are both below average — Andujar significantly below — defensively, shouldn’t be the thing keeping Andujar off the field. Urshela is a great player in his own right, but to parade him as this excellent defender is a false statement.

There’s no secret that Miggy struggles massively, defensively. However, to take Urshela’s numbers from this last season, and extrapolate them to the same amount of innings that Dujar had (roughly 1100-1200), I truly believe the numbers would’ve been a fair bit closer than everyone cares to admit — not too close, but Urshela wouldn’t be heralded as this defensive guru. Urshela is a quality player but is a below average defender, so using the argument of “him being way better and way more solidified defensively” than Andujar, is an argument and reason that holds no substance. The way I view it is that Urshela is the ‘better of two bad’s’ and that his near-average levels of defense do give him the edge.

With that, there’s no malicious intent in “knocking” Urshela, I just don’t believe that he is as good a defender as he gets credit for. Very similar to Jeter, honestly, in that defensively his numbers aren’t positive, but the public perception is that he’s very good defensively. Having both Urshela and Andujar on the team gives the Yankees a two-headed snake, and with the larger amount of attention on the offensive side of things, Andujar could end up being the go-to guy throughout the season.

Andujar or Urshela- offensively

I believe in Gio, but I am still unsure whether or not he is the long-term answer at third, as I would personally rather hang onto Andujar, simply because Dujar holds more value — if it comes down to having to choose one. The interesting thing for Andujar is if he is to be used as a full-time DH — which is what the Yankees are thinking about doing, similar to the Astros with Yordan Alvarez — that he would re-up some of the lost value from the 2019 season, but that’d be putting a cap on a young up-and-comer’s improvement and development. Andujar’s 130 WRC+ in 2018 was just a tick below Urshela’s 132 in 2019, but having both of those bats in the LU could be massive for the Yankees.

With that, I believe that when it comes down to it, Andujar will likely be the odd man out at the beginning of the season. Having Stanton return and easing him back into everyday reps in left field will allow Andujar to have a handful of AB’s the first few weeks, but until Stanton is fully slotted in at LF, and the DH spot is “available”, I’m not too sure how much of Miguel Andujar us Yankees fans will get to see for the first month or so. The fact that this Yankees team has so much talent in the LU, means that quality players like Dujar, Ford, Tauchman, and even Gardner, will likely see more off-days than they would anywhere else in the league.

I don’t have an issue with the defensive gripes and concerns over Andujar, as they are all warranted reactions. My problem is just that there are so many people who have written off Andujar because of both that and an unlucky injury. I was one of them that doubted his future and overall abilities, until I looked more into it and saw how similar of players both Urshela and Andujar are, and how Dujar’s defense shouldn’t leave him out to dry.

In Urshela’s first full season with NYY in 2019, he posted BB% of 5.3% to pair with a K% of 18.3% en route to finishing with an OPS of .889. In Andujar’s first full season back in ’18, his BB% was 4.1% and his K% was 16.0%, contributing to his OPS of .855. With Urshela, you get a bit more consistency defensively, whereas with Andujar you get more pop and excitement offensively. Both players are very similar to one another in their styles and approaches when they step up to the plate, and both — in their first full season’s with NYY — posted a GB/FB rate of 1.25. With the juiced balls being a thing of the past, there’s definitely reason to believe that Gio’s power numbers come down, and he is a consistent .800 OPS player — which isn’t bad by any means, but Miggy has the edge from an offensive perspective.

Overall comparison & values

The glaring difference between Urshela and Andujar is indeed the atrocious defensive numbers that Miggy puts up, but from a value perspective, they’re both very similar. According to Fangraphs’ individual value, Urshela put together a Positional Value of 1.3 (19.4 Batting Value, and a -2.4 Fielding Value in part). Miguel Andujar, in 2018, put up a PV of 0.5 (21.4 Batting Value, and a -16.0 Fielding Value in part). What that says to me is that despite such a horrendously awful Fielding Value, Miguel Andujar still holds massive value and possesses tons of talent. Though Andujar’s value is almost entirely from his offense, even if he were to bring that FV down to say -9.0, that would get him along with the same level of total value as Urshela. Essentially, Andujar can be one of the worst third basemen across all of baseball when in the field, but could still put together a 3 WAR season, roughly, which would be very solid production. As for Urshela, I believe he is around the same in terms of value, at right around 3 WAR. With that, if he is to see a decrease in his power peripherals, I think he may be around 2.0 WAR. Andujar’s upside and ceiling are higher than Urshela’s, which is why it is vital to hang onto him long-term. The ideas that Andujar may even move around the diamond, to a corner OF spot, or first base, also can lead to an increase in value as well.

I think the stigma that “Andujar has to fight his way back” is one that should be done away with entirely. Miguel Andujar is an incredible player, and do we forget that he beat out Gleyber in ROY votes back in 2018 — only finishing second behind Ohtani? Not to mention he won AAA player of the year prior, and last season was expected to be just better than Eduardo Escobar levels of offensive production, the fact he’s being counted out is abhorrently undeserved. The kid is a bonafide stud with a bat in his hands, and if his defense is to see even a slight tick from “absolute dumpster fire” to “dumpster fire that’s just been extinguished”, that would bump him up massively in value and overall performance. Both Andujar and Urshela are fantastic players and they excel in different areas and are naturally not as good in others. I expect both to be used exponentially this upcoming season, as that would be most beneficial for them and the team itself.

I’m a fan of Mike Ford and Mike Tauchman, as I think they both deserve reps and time on the Major League roster, but I do not think either of them should cut into Dujar or Urshela’s AB’s — all that much, at least. If Andujar doesn’t see 500 PA’s this year, barring injury or other issues that may arise and cause him to miss time, the Yankees should be trying to offload him. If the front office already has the idea that Andujar isn’t going to be getting AB’s and days in the field, then don’t waste his talent on the bench & instead look to ship him for a contributing player.