New York Yankees: Looking Through Statcast Lenses on Deivi Garcia

New York Yankees, Deivi Garcia
USA Today

Hey J.A. Happ, you can take your grievance and do whatever you please with it, because you’re never going back in the rotation again. New York Yankees‘ youngster Deivi Garcia has outpitched you in every regard of the word “outpitch.” He throws harder, he’s got more control, he gets more strikeouts, he gives up fewer runs, and he’s better than you. You won’t get that vesting option, and you can thank the brilliance of Deivi Garcia for it.

The kid is an analytical and traditionalist darling, and by using statcast, we can breakdown the young RHP Deivi Garcia.

Deivi Garcia’s Ability To Prevent Hard Hits

Against the Mets and their 119 wRC+ (3rd in MLB), Deivi Garcia gave up merely 4 hard-hit balls in that game despite pitching 6 out of the 8 innings played that day. He had 15 balls in play, so that meant only a 26.7% Hard Hit% against, with 0 barrels against. He was absolutely brilliant that day, and he proved one major thing:

He could get it done.

This idea of “well it was against the Mets” is quite ignorant, as the Mets are right behind the Yankees in xwOBA at 5th, a stat that values quality of contact and the expected outcome of an at-bat. Deivi was brilliant again against the Orioles, despite what the ERA tells you. While yes, he gave up 4 runs, that was because 2 came in due to Schmidt being foolishly brought in. The Yankees screwed over Deivi and his splendid night, but even in that game, he only gave up 4 hard hits in 13 balls in play, which is at the 30.8% hard hit% mark. That means his yearly total right now is 8/28 balls in play are hard hit, which is ~28.5% of all balls in play.

Master of the Strikeout to Walk Percentages

His 22.6% K-BB% isn’t the best on the Yankees or in the sport, but it’s certainly well above average. The MLB average in 2020 is 13.9%, and so Deivi really has established himself as a very good pitcher. His peripherals tell you that he can sustain above-average play and that he’s really good at what he’s doing. After you look at Deivi Garcia’s visuals, you notice that he’s very much in the zone with his pitches, so this walk problem in the minors seems to be a thing of the distant past.

His fastball lives in the zone, despite the average velocity being at around 92.1 MPH and being used at a 57.1% clip. The kid is simply phenomenal, and it’s rare you see a pitcher without velocity be able to command the zone like that with such confidence at such an early age.

Deivi Garcia’s Biggest Achilles’ Heel

The biggest issue with Deivi that always seems to bite him in the middle of games is his long and drawn out innings/at-bats. While yes, the occasional 2 baserunner inning occurs, this can completely gas you from pitching really deep into games. Deivi is averaging a little over 5 innings per start, which is lower than you’d like from him. His ideal game (start against the Mets), he got his pitch count to 75 through 22 batters faced, which is around 3.41 pitches per at-bat. That’s a good total, and it’s why he succeeded, but in game 2 (against the Orioles), he had spiked that to 4.31 pitches per AB. This led to a flurry of issues that ended up costing him and the Yankees big.

He has struggled at times when it comes to effectively putting away batters, and if he can’t get that problem fixed, then he is going to have bad outings. I know he can fix it, but it’s definitely a heel of note, as teams will try to drive up Deivi’s pitch count, and Kratz and Deivi will need to be better suited to handle it.

 The Final Verdict on Deivi Garcia

Is Deivi Garcia an elite starting pitcher who’s going to throw 6 inning shutouts left and right? Probably not yet. Is he a really promising starter capable of being the perfect 4 behind Cole, Tanaka, and Paxton? Absolutely. He’s an actual stud, and his peripherals like his SIERA and xFIP alongside the statcast data support this. The New York Yankees just hit a goldmine in Deivi Garcia, and they will be the lucky team to trot out the young starter every 5th day. Oh, yea, about the rotation spot, he’s taking Happ’s spot, I can’t see how he doesn’t. You don’t need a breakdown to tell you that, though.

Deivi Garcia is a great strikeout arm with good control, and if he can polish off his putaway pitches, he can be a 3.50 ERA starter for the next 4 or so starts he has. I see a 21.2 inning stretch with 25 strikeouts and 6 walks, and 8 ER. This would mean he finishes the year with these stats:

6 starts
32 IP
3.50 ERA
10.4 SO/9
2.25 BB/9

A season like that over 6 starts would be money for the Yankees, who desperately needed a starter. Maybe Cashman was right when he said Deivi was a better option than the options on the market.