Next Thursday, the New York Yankees will face the Washington Nationals on the opening day of the 2020 baseball season. Later that night, the Los Angeles Dodgers will play the San Francisco Giants. The next day all the other MLB will have their opening day. All 30 teams will choose a pitcher to take the baseball. All 30 of those men could lay claim to being his team’s No. 1 starter. But none of them can declare himself an ace.
The Athletic (a major sports journalism outlet) decided to reach out to 20 MLB experts for the answer to who are the MLB’s best pitchers. The title of ace is not easy to get and even more challenging to keep. Only a handful of pitchers across baseball, in the eyes of industry experts, are worthy of that title.
Who are the aces in baseball? That was the question The Athletic wanted to answer as the 2020 campaign approached. So we decided to ask around.
Our methodology was straightforward. We approached 20 people in the industry to gather a cross-section of opinions. Some of our panelists have been in the game for decades, baseball lifers who have watched firsthand the evolution of scouting. Some have arrived only recently, part of a wave of new talent. They divided all the pitchers (60) into four categories.
Tier 1 — Aces: The sort of pitcher you build a franchise around. An ace stays healthy during the marathon of the season and pitches well enough to carry the club into October. An ace is the pitcher you want on the mound in Game 7. And you know what you can expect from your ace the next season — more of the same, if not better. 4 points. Must be unanimous.
Tier 2 — Applicants: A pitcher who has the potential to graduate into the elite group but hasn’t quite gotten there yet. Or, perhaps they’ve been at the top in the past, and they’re capable of getting there again. This is an applicant. 2.50 or more.
Tier 3 — No. 2s and 3s: It is true that applicants may fall into this category as well. The difference is that pitchers in this tier lack the upside to graduate to the upper ranks. Still, they’re a steady presence to anchor a rotation. 1.5 points or more.
Tier 4 — Guys: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the game, “just a guy.†Less than 1.5 points.
So, according to the Athletic, who is the best pitcher in baseball?
I. ACES
Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 4.00
Aces votes: 20
Age: 29
2019 stats: 20-5, 2.50 ERA, 212.1 IP, 2.64 FIP, 13.8 strikeouts per nine.
Although others had the same score, the stats were the deciding factor. Gerrit Cole came out ahead of the Met’s Jacob deGrom, the Washington National’s Max Scherzer, and the Houston Astro’s Justin Verlander,
Cole’s overwhelming skills made it easy for teams to forget. “He is the best pitcher on the list,†said one AL executive. “ I don’t know that you can point to a weakness, and then he does it for 200 innings. If I had to pick one pitcher for a game where I was betting my life, I would pick Gerrit.â€
II. APPLICANTS
III. 2s AND 3s
James Paxton, LHP, New York Yankees
Score: 2.15
Age: 31
2019 stats: 15-6, 3.82 ERA, 150.2 IP, 3.86 FIP, 11.1 strikeouts per nine.
The responses on James Paxton all hit a similar theme. He “has No. 1 stuff,†one official said. An AL executive described him as “capable of pitching like a No. 1 for stretches.†Both respondents marked Paxton in the third tier, though. Why? His health. “When you start having those type injuries that he’s having, you don’t know,†an AL scout said. “It could go either way. If you’re going to be an ace, you’ve got to be able to post.â€
Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, New York Yankees
Score: 1.85
Age: 31
2019 stats: 11-9, 4.45 ERA, 182 IP, 4.27 FIP, 7.4 strikeouts per nine.
Tanaka never took over the sport, but he has lived up to the challenges of his $155 million deal in the Bronx. He avoided a significant injury. He made a couple of All-Star teams. And he has been excellent in October, with a 1.76 ERA in eight playoff starts.
There are approximately 370 pitchers in the major leagues split between starters and relievers. In this harsh assessment, only a very few made it into any of The Athletics categories. According to how liberally you think any of the above pitchers could be considered elite or very good at their jobs. Obviously 310 pitchers pitching for teams all over the country didn’t even make it onto this list.
Many of those that didn’t make the list were sighted as previous aces that no longer made the grade due to injuries or age, pitchers like Madison Bumgardner, David Price, Dallas Keuchel, and John Lester. Even some of these pitchers might be considered aces, but didn’t get the number of votes in their category to merit that consideration.
Some of the tier 4 guys included could still be considered pretty good pitchers, including Anabel Sanchez of the Nationals, former Yankee Michael Pineda of the Twins, and Dylan Bundy of the Angels. Many New York Yankee fans may wonder why Luis Severino or Domingo German is not on any of these lists. Although I don’t know why I would assume it’s because of both pitchers not being able to play during the 2020 season.