Do three twos equal a one? That is the equation the New York Yankees will be attempting to solve with their starting rotation this year. New acquisition James Paxton, returning All Star Luis Severino, and J.A. Happ are all vying to lead the Yankees rotation, but all are lacking at least one key component.
In their quest for a World Series appearance this year the Bombers are going with quantity to offset a slight shortage of quality.
Let’s take a look at each pitchers one hole in their otherwise ace like resumes:
Luis Severino has now had two consecutive seasons where dominant starts gave way to lackluster finishes. Putting aside the tipped pitch possibility, stamina seems to be his biggest obstacle to true dominance. While his velocity remained at the top of the league for starters all season long his command and movement both fell off post all star break.
With a diminished spin rate on his slider opponents were able to lay off his out pitch. This in turn allowed them to wait on his fastball, and any major league hitter will eventually time and crush a fastball he knows is coming. His hard contact rate jumped from 28% to 35% by seasons end. The team may want to manage his workload throughout the season to try and avoid a similar slip at the end of 2019.
Yankees acquisition has his pros and cons:
James Paxton has flashed tremendous stuff over his career, but is yet to put together even one season without at least one DL stint. He has displayed stamina, command, and the ability to lead a staff in Seattle.
Unfortunately the one ability he hasn’t shown is availability, as hes averaged just under 20 starts per season over the last 5 years. It’s hard to lead a staff when you spend a third of the season in the trainers room. None of his injuries were of a structural nature, so Yankee fans are hoping it’s just been random bad luck that’s due to turn. Expecting injury prone players to suddenly maintain their health is always a dicey proposition…how is Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal working out for the club?
Can J.A. Happ be the Yankees’ ace?
Finally there’s J.A. Happ, who was tremendous for the team right up until the ALDS, where he turned back into a pumpkin. That’s probably a little harsh but again if you look at his resume outside of last year and 2016 he’s been a .500 pitcher with an ERA that hovers right around 4 to 4.50.
As a crafty lefty to slide into the three spot in a rotation he’d be a little overqualified, but as the foundation of your staff he is definitely miscast. Planning on him building on 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA would be exceedingly optimistic .
All three are talented and can shoulder some of the load throughout the season, but the best hope is they can each hit their cold spells at different times and pick each other up.
With at least one of them in a groove all season long losing streaks should be avoidable and the offense should more than make up for the occasional stinker. With CC Sabathia closer to AARP than MVP, and Masahiro Tanaka seeming to think only post season games require his full attention the Yankees are hoping their trio of not quite aces can lead them through the post season and another championship.