New York Yankees: Don’t write off Aaron Hicks

Back in the offseason prior to the 2016 MLB season, the Yankees were in the midst of their own mini rebuild. They saw their future behind the plate in Gary Sanchez, and thus they figured they should shop longtime Yankee, John Ryan Murphy. JRM never really earned his keep on the team, but nonetheless was an admirable backup catcher. When the Yankees announced he had been traded to the Minnesota Twins for Aaron Hicks, I was intrigued to see who this new member of the team was.

The season prior, for the Twins, Hicks was decent across the board. He posted an 8.7% BB Rate to a 16.9% K Rate — en route to a .721 OPS. His 96 WRC+ and 2.0 fWAR over 97 games made me think that he will be the perfect fourth outfielder. Add to that his solid power and speed combination, plus a switch hitter to slot in the lineup, and also a cannon of an arm on the defensive side of things.

Hicks’ track record in NYY

If one were to tell me that Aaron Hicks would be one of the best centerfielders in baseball, back in ’16, I would’ve laughed in their face. After joining the Yankees, Hicks’ first season with the team was anything but reassuring. Despite seeing an increase in reps, game time, and overall trust from his new team, Hicks took a massive step backward. In 123 games, across 361 AB’s, Hicks OPS’d .617, posted a 64 WRC+, and saw both his power and speed numbers nosedive into the asphalt. The future in Pinstripes wasn’t looking up for Aaron, but the 2017 season would crash every idea that Aaron Hicks is a bad baseball player, and in fact it flipped the script completely.

The Yankees outfield coming into 2017 — following a season in which if not for Gary Sanchez, would’ve been deemed a complete failure — consisted of Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Jacoby Ellsbury. While many people viewed this group of players as a solid group, but nothing special, there was no telling how good that outfield really was. Gardner was excellent, as he appeared in 151 games, and posted a 4.0 fWAR season. Judge, as everyone knows, was MVP levels of good in ’17 — as he was ultimately gypped of the award. However, Aaron Hicks saw massive improvement across the board, and was able to continue on the fast track to an all-star level player.

Below is a table comparing Hicks’ ’16-’18 seasons. (Info via Fangraphs):

What the table shows is that Aaron Hicks exploded onto the scene, and contributed massively. While in ’16, Hicks was well below average, the following two seasons he would amass 8.4 fWAR — the sixth most for centerfielders in that span in all of baseball. Add to that the 11th best wRC+ in 2017 (at 128, just below Springer at 129). In 2017, he doubled his wRC+ and broke out of his shell. It is crazy just how good Hicks was, in how little of time. Him accumulating that much value, and making that much of an impact, led to him signing a lengthy extension with New York. Hicks came to terms on a 7/70mil extension during the 2018 season, and anyone could see that the Yankees got a steal.

Unfortunately, the following year, Aaron Hicks found himself on the IL for a major portion of the year as he had nagging injuries that plagued his season. At the end of 2019, Hicks elected to undergo Tommy John surgery and is expected to return around June or July. The biggest gripe over Hicks, as it seems to be with an influx of Yankees players, is that he is injury prone. Hicks, since coming to New York, has only played 130 games once.

Hicks’ Expectations and the Allure

To back up Aaron Hicks, I find myself in the same situation over and over again, as I try to justify these players’ absences. In reality, losing Hicks for seemingly a good chunk of the year, every year, does indeed hurt his value and the overall image of him in the fans’ eyes. With that, Hicks is only making $10,500,000 base pay this season, and even with the limited time he’ll see on the field, is expected to make an impact. STEAMER projects Hicks to appear in 52 games, and ultimately amount to a 107 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR. I think those projections are on the lower side, considering they assume Hicks will only OPS roughly around .780 — in part because of the low average.

Hicks isn’t a .280 hitter, but he is a .250-.260 one, with incredible plate discipline and as mentioned prior — good power and speed. Add to that his excellent defense, and overall Hicks is a 5 WAR player across a full season — with a .800 OPS floor. The only problem is that we, as Yankee fans, may never see a full season of Aaron Hicks. While I have no intention of writing him off or seeing him go play elsewhere, if this injury streak is to continue for the next few seasons, there may be no choice. I know that Hicks is one of the best all-around outfielders in the league — I view him as a similar player to Tommy Pham — and yet, he is always seemingly tossed to the curb.

Tommy Pham has been heralded, for the last three seasons now, as one of the most underrated players in the game of baseball. Most recently Pham was shipped off to the Padres, in a deal in which a great number of people and analysts believe they got a diamond for coffee beans. Yet, looking at a comparison between Pham and Hicks’ ’17-18 seasons, it is a lot closer than many people care to admit. (Info via Fangraphs):

For starters, Tommy Pham came out of nowhere and despite the fact that his numbers have been dipping each year, he is still one of the best surprise stories in baseball. Across the MLB, Tommy Pham saw himself gaining popularity and recognition. Ultimately, as mentioned, he was seen as — entering the 2019 season — one of the most overlooked players in baseball. Yet, Pham isn’t that much better of a player than Hicks is, as Hicks is still the better defender of the two, and by a good margin. Not to mention that Hicks has been seeing steady improvement in his performances, and value, whereas with Pham, the trajectory is heading in the opposite direction.

For reference as to how solid of a player Hicks is, he projects to accrue 1.1 fWAR over a projected 224 AB’s, Tommy Pham is projected to accumulate 3.2 fWAR in 630 AB’s — which if one were to extrapolate the projections, Hicks comes in at just below (3.1 fWAR over the same 630 AB’s). When both guys are able to take the field for the entire season, they are two of the most comparable players in the game of baseball — along with I’d say Michael Conforto. What I mean by that is that those three players are all guys that are around .260 hitters, with great plate discipline and pop in their bat as well. For Conforto and Pham, they lose some of their value in that they’re both not great defensive players. For Hicks, he misses out a bit on value because his hit tool isn’t as defined or impactful as Conforto’s or Pham’s, and that he hasn’t been on the field.

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The Undisputed Value of Aaron Hicks

At the end of the day, however, Hicks is one of the best “bang for your buck” values in all of the MLB. If 1 WAR were to equal roughly $7,000,000 (as has been stated in years past), then Aaron Hicks’ 2018 season should’ve earned him a contract worth $20,000,000+ per year for a few years. The Yankees signed him for pennies on the dollar, and when he’s on the field, he makes a definite impact.

Being able to slot Hicks’ switch-hitting bat anywhere in the LU is a tremendous advantage, as his above-average abilities in every offensive facet of the game, make him a dangerous 5-Tool player. While Hicks may not be the most exciting player to the casual fan, what Hicks brings to the table is electrifying intensity on both sides of the ball, a great baseball IQ, and the guarantee that every time he steps up to the plate, he will get the most out of the AB. Hicks saw 2487 pitches in ’18, across 581 Plate Appearances, which works out to an average of 4.9 pitches per at-bat. For reference, that was higher than that of Aaron Judge — at 4.27.

The disrespect toward Aaron Hicks, and the idea that he is not a good baseball player, or that he struggles with consistency, needs to be tossed aside. With Hicks, unfortunately, the need for, and undergoing of TJ surgery really hurt his production and obviously derailed his track of improvement, but I don’t doubt that he can return and be productive. While unfortunately, we won’t be able to see Hicks until midway through the year, having his bat and expertise back in the clubhouse will go a long way for the Yankees and their World Series hopes, when he does return.

As Yankee fans, and for those out there that still feel as if Hicks is horrible, just take into account that John Ryan Murphy was all the Yankees gave up for him. In the four seasons that have passed since the trade, JRM has amassed a total of  0.6 fWAR, and the most games he’s appeared in in a single season was 87 with the Diamondbacks in 2018 — in which he posted a wRC+ of 62 en route to a career-high 0.9 fWAR. Aaron Hicks may not be a superstar, and some fans may feel as if he is actively hurting the Yankees by making that $10 million, and not playing. In reality, Hicks is a key contributor to a team with such high aspirations and expectations and shouldn’t be written off.