After taking a 3-game series from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Yankees turn their attention to the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees have more than ample opportunities to acquire home-field advantage from the Houston Astros, and even from the Dodgers if they remain focused and slug their way to a championship appearance.
For tonight’s contest, J.A Happ will be facing Matt Wisler, in hopes of raising his record to 11-8 and providing the New York Yankees with another dub in the win column. We all know the struggles Happ has endured this season, but just exactly how mediocre has he been this season?
Happ has a solid 10-8 record, but pitching records hardly signify anything in today’s game of baseball. The reason being? For example, if a pitcher goes a phenomenal 9 innings and allows 1 run, but his offense is completely lackluster and provides no run support, is that the pitcher’s fault? Can he control the offense and their production abilities? If you said no, you’d most certainly be correct.
Now that we have ruled pitching records out of the equation, let’s focus on some of the other stats that he has collected this season. In just 129.0 innings pitched, Happ has a 5.58 ERA, (big yikes) 5.69 FIP (big yikes V2) and a 1.37 WHIP. He also obtains a mediocre 7.33 K/9 and a decent at best 2.58 BB/9, but most alarming is his sky-high and insufficient 2.16 HR/9 and 20.3 % HR/FB. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 or more innings this season, Happ is the worst in the majors for home runs per 9 innings and the 4th worst for a home run to fly ball ratio.
The problem doesn’t just reside in the number of home runs and fly balls he has allowed, but also his fastball velocity (26th percentile) and curve spin (14th percentile) are not fantastic by any standards. When comparing his 2018 and 2019 rankings, Happ’s fastball velocity is down by 12 percentile. While his curve spin has improved by 2 percentile this season, his fastball spin, K%, and xBA were significantly better last season. Even when comparing more simplified stats, it’s blatantly obvious just how poor Happ has pitched this season.
- 2018: 3.65 ERA / 3.98 FIP / 1.13 WHIP / 9.78 K/9 / 1.37 HR/9 / 13.4 % HR/FB
- 2019: 5.58 ERA / 5.69 FIP / 1.37 WHIP / 7.33 K/9 / 2.16 HR/9 / 20.3 % HR/FB
His home / away splits are exceedingly similar. Interestingly enough, Happ has a lower HR/9 at Yankee Stadium than on the road. Just as DJ LeMahieu proved this season that he is not a product of Coors Field, Happ, and his home run rate is not a product of Yankee stadium. Other than the fact that his fastball spin and velocity are down, Happ is simply leaving too many meatballs over the heart of the plate. If he can pitch around the strike zone and advance deeper into counts, he will be much more sufficient.