New York Yankees: Back of the Rotation Expectations

New York Yankees, Aaron Boone
Oct 2, 2019; New York, NY, USA; New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone in the field during a workout day before game 1 of the ALDS at Yankees Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees are set at the top of their rotation. The Yankees have arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Gerrit Cole. The Yankees have one of the best young starting pitchers in the game in Luis Severino. They also have one of the best post-season starting pitchers in Masahiro Tanaka. Not to mention, James Paxton, but he won’t be pitching until June so we will leave him out of this conversation. You know what you’re going to get from those three. More times than not, you’re going to get a high-quality outing from any of those three. But, what about the last two spots in the rotation? What are the Yankees truly expecting from J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery? Yes, I know the Yankees don’t have a set starter at the fifth spot, but in this article we are going to go with the odds that Gumby wins the fifth spot. The Yankees have three very good righties and two big question marks surrounding their lefties. So Yankee fans, what should we expect?

Happ looking to bounce back.

J.A. Happ is a crafty lefty who was incredible when the Yankees first acquired him during the 2018 season. In 11 starts, Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA. He resembled the way James Paxton looked during the second half of 2019. He was the Yankees best pitcher, and he pitched his way into a new two year deal with the Yankees. However, he almost immediately proved that the Yankees overpaid during the 2019 season. Happ was awful last season going 12-9 with a 4.91 ERA. Happ allowed a career high in home runs, and he posted his second highest career ERA. The Yankees were trying to find a trade partner to take Happ once the offseason started. However, the Yankees pumped the breaks on that search when Paxton’s health became in question. Happ was no longer expendable in the eyes of the Yankees front office. So, Happ is going to slot in to the fourth spot in the rotation to start the 2020 season. What should we expect? Well, I think we are going to see his numbers improve from where they were last year. Do I expect him to be the Happ of 2018? Of course not. Nobody should expect Happ to be an all-star, but I believe Happ is going to be a very serviceable member of the Yankees rotation. If he has a decent start to the season, the Yankees could explore moving him at the deadline if Paxton comes back and seems healthy. The idea of trading Happ comes down to how the other member of the rotation does in his first half.

Will Gumby return to form?

Jordan Montgomery really came out of no where for the Yankees in 2017. Monty went 9-7 with an ERA of 3.88 in his first year with the Yankees. Montgomery continued to improve into the 2018 season. In six starts, Montgomery was 2-0 with 3.62 ERA. He looked like he was going to be another crafty Yankee lefty that was going to be a fixture in the rotation for years to come. Reminded me a lot of Andy Pettitte. However, during a game against the Astros, Montgomery was pulled for discomfort in his elbow. Montgomery ended up needing Tommy John surgery and missed the remained of 2018 and all of 2019. I’m not really counting the four innings he appeared in at the end of the season. Montgomery is a question mark because we really don’t know how he’s going to bounce back from TJ surgery. Most players seem to come back just fine, but until he proves it, he’s a question mark. Personally, I expect Montgomery to re-establish himself as a member of the rotation in 2020. I expect a decent year from Gumby with an ERA floating right around four. I think he will keep his spot in the rotation even after James Paxton comes back from injury. I believe the Yankees feel that Montgomery is going to be a member of the rotation moving forward, and I expect him to stay in the rotation beyond the 2020 season.

While the back-end of the rotation is no where close to the top of the Yankees rotation, I expect them to put up decent numbers in 2020. There are going to be some clunkers here and there from the two lefties, but for the most part, I expect these two will give the Yankees more chances to win games than chances to lose. The Yankees high-powered offense will help their W/L numbers, but I expect both guys to have sub 4.50 ERAs during the first half of the 2020 season.