Many New York Yankee fans look at Aaron Judge and see the future Yankee Captain. They see a future emulating that of Derek Jeter, spending his whole career as a New York Yankee. But will that happen? Could the ripple effect of the acquisition of Gerrit Cole have a negative effect on the career of Aaron Judge? The ripple effect I am speaking of is the impact that the high dollar amount of the Cole contract will have on future negotiations with other Yankee players and more specifically on Aaron Judge.
Avoiding arbitration the Yankees and Aaron Judge settled on an $8.5MM one year deal which was reasonable considering Judge’s injury history the last two years. (If Judge has an injury-free season and hits 50 home runs that deal will seem minuscule.) Many thought that in the first year of arbitration for Judge the Yankees would have used the opportunity to lock up Judge with an extended contract. That did not happen. A question to ask is why that didn’t happen? Could it be that the Yankees are concerned with Judge’s injury history, or could it be that they know that when he becomes a free agent in 2023 he will be demanding Bryce Harper type bucks? At the same time, other star players like Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Gary Sanchez are going to be demanding more money as well.
The Yankees are locked into the $36MM that Cole will be getting every year for the next nine years assuming he doesn’t opt-out after five years. It is reasonable to wonder if the Yankees will be willing to spend the big bucks necessary to keep Aaron Judge in the right field of Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees financial strain of paying Cole and Judge just may not make sense for the Yankees and Aaron Judge could hit the free-agent market. We all remember the Yankees’ refusal to pay the big contracts necessary to obtain a Manny Machado or a Bryce Harper. Make no mistake unless Judge is hindered by injuries, he will become that type of high priced player. Upon his free agency, he will be just short of 31 and in the prime of his career.
MLB.com has projected that Aaron Judge will be with another team after the 2023 season. They cite that the Yankees will be hesitant to play three players more than $90MM, Cole $36MM, Judge 30MM and Stanton $25MM. Derek Jeter was willing to take a salary less than he was worth so that he could play his entire career with the Yankees. There is no question he could have made more money in free agency. Will Aaron Judge be that amenable to accepting less in a baseball environment that demands that star players get huge long term contracts? It’s doubtful.
The Yankees just might be able to avoid this whole scenario if they offer Judge a long term contract of 8-10 years with a guaranteed income in the area of $20MM per year. That guaranteed income in light of his injury history might make him more amenable to stay in New York and become the Yankee Captain. In this writer’s opinion, the Yankees should get down to business and lock up Judge while they can, and sooner than later.