The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners aren’t just chasing playoff glory this September—they’re also front and center in one of the most fascinating MVP races in recent memory. At stake isn’t only postseason seeding or bragging rights in their divisions, but the chance for two stars to carve their names into baseball history. On one side, Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ cornerstone and two-time MVP winner. On the other, Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ rugged backstop who has forced his way into the conversation with a season for the ages.

Passan’s Take: Judge by a Razor-Thin Margin

MLB insider Jeff Passan recently weighed in, and his perspective captured just how razor-thin this race feels. “If I had a vote right now, I would go Aaron Judge and I would feel terrible about it,” Passan admitted. It wasn’t a slight against Judge—quite the opposite. The comment reflected how extraordinary Raleigh has been, especially given the demands of his position, yet still not quite enough to dethrone Judge.

Passan pointed out that catchers like Raleigh often get undervalued. Advanced metrics can’t fully measure what they bring: pitch-calling, managing pitchers’ confidence, and knowing opposing hitters’ tendencies in real time. It’s the invisible workload that WAR doesn’t capture. Raleigh’s ability to thrive at the plate while handling those responsibilities is exactly why he’s built such a compelling MVP case.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Still, Judge’s numbers are undeniable. While Raleigh leads in the traditional power categories with 58 home runs and 121 RBI, Judge owns the edge in the advanced metrics that modern voters lean on. His wRC+ of 199 dwarfs Raleigh’s 160, and his fWAR sits at 9.2 compared to Raleigh’s 8.8. Add in Judge’s 131 runs scored, his ability to carry the Yankees’ lineup, and his consistent presence as a game-changing force, and it becomes clear why Passan—and likely many voters—can’t look past him.

Judge isn’t just producing big numbers; he’s redefining consistency. Passan put it best: instead of voter fatigue setting in, there’s awe that Judge continues to maintain this level of dominance year after year. For all the talk about balance in baseball, Judge has become the rare outlier, a hitter who bends the game to his will like a quarterback who always finds the end zone no matter the defensive scheme.

Raleigh’s Case: The Catcher’s Burden

But it would be unfair to dismiss Raleigh’s candidacy as merely “the runner-up story.” What makes his case so special is that he’s excelling at the most grueling position in baseball. Catchers don’t get nights off. Their legs take a beating, their arms never stop working, and their minds juggle game plans for every pitcher on the staff. For Raleigh to hit nearly 60 home runs while managing all of that? It borders on unprecedented.

The Mariners have leaned on him not just for his bat but for his leadership behind the plate. When Seattle pitchers talk about confidence and game flow, Raleigh is the anchor they point to. That balance between offensive thunder and defensive stewardship makes him the kind of player the MVP award should, in theory, be built to recognize.

Judge Remains the Favorite

And yet, when voters make their final call, Aaron Judge’s dominance may be too overwhelming to ignore. The Yankees’ captain has elevated his teammates by sheer force of presence, and his bat remains the most dangerous in baseball. If Judge claims his third MVP, it won’t diminish Raleigh’s season—it will simply underline how high the bar has been set.

Two players, two teams, and one award that symbolizes more than individual excellence. This year’s MVP race between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh feels like a heavyweight title fight—one slugger known for his towering homers, the other a catcher shouldering responsibilities few can truly grasp. Whichever way the vote swings, fans are witnessing greatness in stereo.