For the New York Yankees, the rise and fall of Luis Gil’s 2025 season feels like a story written in two distinct acts. Just a year ago, Gil was celebrated as the American League Rookie of the Year, a breakout arm who had silenced doubters and outpaced top young talents like Baltimore’s Colton Cowser and his own teammate Austin Wells. He looked like a budding star in the Bronx, the type of pitcher a franchise can lean on when October comes calling.
But baseball is cruelly cyclical, and this season has told a different tale. Gil’s journey in 2025 began with a spring training setback—a lat strain that sidelined him for months. By the time he returned, momentum was gone. Instead of picking up where he left off, Gil has spent the year trying to rediscover his form, wrestling with command, velocity, and consistency.
The surface numbers don’t tell the whole story
On paper, Gil’s 3.29 ERA looks strong. Any team would take that from a member of their rotation. But peel back the layers, and the cracks start to show. Advanced metrics suggest Gil has been living dangerously. According to data reported by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, his expected ERA sits at 4.78, with a 4.24 FIP and a troubling 5.64 expected FIP.
Those numbers hint at a pitcher walking a tightrope without a net. Last season, Gil overpowered hitters with 10.15 strikeouts per nine innings; this year, that dominance has evaporated, dropping to just 6.75. The decline suggests hitters are seeing him better, and when the ball is put in play, the results are flirting with disaster.
Matt Blake sees the warning signs
Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake didn’t mince words when evaluating Gil’s season.
“I do think that is something that, when you look at it, like, is this sustainable? I think it’s probably not,” Blake told Kirschner. “The surface-level ERA is probably a little bit lucky. I don’t think he’s a five-ERA guy, but he has pitched to a lot of traffic. He does have an instinct to make big pitches when the stakes are higher… but is that a recipe you want to live on? I don’t think so.”
That “traffic” Blake referred to—constant baserunners, constant stress—might not be the formula you want heading into October, when every pitch is magnified and every mistake feels seismic.
Cam Schlittler complicates the picture for Gil
Adding to Gil’s challenge is the steady emergence of Cam Schlittler. While Gil’s ERA and reputation buy him respect, Schlittler has delivered similar run prevention (a 3.27 ERA) with cleaner underlying numbers. In a postseason rotation that already features Max Fried and Carlos Rodón at the top, the Yankees will have to decide whether Gil’s experience outweighs Schlittler’s statistical reliability.
It’s the baseball equivalent of a coach deciding whether to stick with the veteran point guard who struggles to shoot but has “clutch” instincts, or to trust the younger guard who quietly drives efficiency.
Velocity drop raises more questions
Another red flag is Gil’s fastball. Last year, he averaged a tick higher on the radar gun. In 2025, that velocity has dipped by more than a mile per hour. The Yankees insist the drop isn’t health-related, but rather a strategic adjustment meant to help him stay fresher and harness his command.
Manager Aaron Boone emphasized that point, saying, “I don’t think it’s anything physical. I think it’s command, just trying to find his way in the strike zone in a better way.”
Still, in a game where power often wins in October, the sight of Gil without his extra gear is unsettling.
Fighting for October relevance
As of Thursday, Luis Gil might no longer be penciled in as the Yankees’ likely No. 3 postseason starter. That role seems destined for either Schlittler or another arm. For Gil, the road back to October relevance will require not just grit, but proof—proof that the underlying numbers don’t define him, and proof that the Yankees can trust him in the spotlight again.
A year ago, he looked like the next great Bronx October arm. This season, he looks like a pitcher still searching for answers. And in New York, patience is never unlimited.
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