The Yankees have built themselves a comfortable lead not just for the AL East, which could be decided with a win in just one of their final six games, but have all but secured a first-round bye. As long as the Yankees don’t lose out while the Orioles win out, they’ll play their first postseason game in the ALDS and will use a three-man rotation. With the final turn through the rotation coming around, it’s crunch time for these starters to make their final bids for the nod in that initial series.
We could see things change in October, but for a potential first-round matchup, here’s how I would roll out their starting three for the ALDS.
ALDS Game 1: Gerrit Cole
This segment won’t justify the decision to go with Gerrit Cole as the Yankees’ Game 1 starter since this is a forgone conclusion and has been the case since the second he signed his big-time deal in 2019. The ugly start against Boston left a gross taste in the mouth of fans for understandable reasons, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner washed it out with a brilliant nine-inning gem against the Oakland Athletics. His 3.67 ERA and 3.81 FIP on the season are solid, although they are his worst marks since Pittsburgh, but he’s been considerably better over the last two months.
Since August, Cole has had a 2.53 ERA and 26.4% K%, allowing just two home runs across nine starts and delivering huge outings that have helped the Yankees sit atop the AL East. His curveball has been a weapon he’s relied on more as the season has gone on, and he’s allowing damage contact at a lower rate than he ever has with the Yankees. It’s been interesting to see the dominant right-hander go from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher who still has top-of-the-line stuff, and his transition has allowed him to age better than most pitchers in their mid-30s.
Gerrit Cole isn’t the historically dominant version of himself we saw from 2018-2021, but he is still very good and can carve up just about any lineup. The fastball is missing more bats than last year thanks to his curveball being better than it had been in recent years, his cutter and slider have been good gloveside weapons for him, and we’re still seeing him tinker with the changeup to see if it can be a weapon for him. With a 111 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+, he’s still one of the premier starters in the league, and the Yankees will be more than happy to have him leading their rotation.
ALDS Game 2: Clarke Schmidt
Nobody in the Yankees’ rotation has performed better on a per-rate basis than Clarke Schmidt, who has a 2.37 ERA and 3.50 FIP through 14 starts this season. His command has yet to fully click since returning from the IL, but the stuff is crisp and his sinker is moving even more than it did before he hit the IL. His cutter is cutting, his sweeper is sweeping, and he has a 1.76 ERA with a 52.3% groundball rate since his return from a tough shoulder injury. His Stuff+ scores are in line with where it was pre-IL stint, and he should be rewarded with a Game 2 start.
You need someone who can be a rock in the rotation, and while Schmidt has struggled to provide length at times, he’s allowed no more than three runs in a start this season. Things eventually have to regress for him, but I’d say you ride the hot hand and let him get the ball twice in what will be a dogfight in the ALDS. He’s pitched against Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston this season, posting a 2.48 ERA in those five starts and striking out 32 batters in 29 innings.
With how the ALDS scheduling lines up, there’s an off-day after both Games 1 and 2, meaning both Cole and Schmidt should be good to start two different times in the series. I would 100% expect Gerrit Cole to get the ball in Game 4 if needed, but I’d also expect Clarke Schmidt to be in the game for a winner-take-all Game 5. The Yankees could use him as a 3-4 inning guy in that game, but if he can deliver over those frames that will prove highly valuable. We’ve seen Aaron Boone use a quick hook and get his bullpen involved fast, so I’d expect the same when the stakes are highest.
Only Reynaldo Lopez (2.03) and Paul Skenes (1.99) have lower ERAs than Clarke Schmidt as starters (min. 70 IP), and that should be enough in my opinion for the Yankees to trust him to keep the team in the game.
ALDS Game 3: Carlos Rodon
To start the season, Carlos Rodon was one of the biggest question marks on the New York Yankees, and at some point it looked like he would cruise to being their Game 2 starter. The underlying metrics suggested he would regress, and that’s exactly what happened to him as the weather got warm and the ball started flying out of the ballpark. Things looked grim for the $162 million left-hander, but a huge development in his changeup allowed him to start shoving down the stretch, igniting a dominant run for this rotation in August and September.
Since the All-Star Break, Carlos Rodon has a 2.87 ERA and 30.5% strikeout rate, looking like the ace the Yankees hoped he would be when they initially signed him. His changeup is one of the best secondary pitches for any starter in the rotation, sporting a 48.5% Whiff Rate with batters hitting just .198 against it, and he’s using it much more than he did in the first half where he struggled mightily. He looks like the version of Carlos Rodon that the Yankees hoped they would get when they signed him to that six-year deal, and it’s why I’m confident in him getting the ball in Game 3.
READ MORE: Yankees’ funky lefty starter has flipped the script on his season
The pitcher who fans sent real-life money to in order to get him to sign with the Yankees was not the one we got at the start of this contract, but we’re finally starting to see that version of Carlos Rodon. A year ago, he was getting destroyed by the Royals and showing up Matt Blake on the mound as the Yankees sunk to an 82-80 season. Now? he’s someone who the Yankees will almost definitely start in the postseason if he were to stay healthy for the next month or so.
A crazy year with plenty of ups and downs, we’re seeing some sustainable success for the hard-throwing left-hander, and some serious AJ Burnett vibes are going on here.
Where the Yankees Could Plug-In Remaining Starters On the Playoff Roster
The ALDS will set up a three-man rotation, but the ALCS will present a format where a team will have to use four different starters most likely. We saw Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole, and Nestor Cortes get the ball in the 2022 ALCS against Houston, and I’d expect the Yankees to have four names on deck to get the ball if they advanced in the best-of-five series. Nestor Cortes would be my top choice to be the Game 4 starter because of his most recent tear where he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Cortes has a 1.58 ERA and 25.2% strikeout rate, and there are a couple of key changes over this stretch that have really impressed me. His pitch usage has become more balanced, throwing his four-seamer just 40.7% of the time compared to 45.1% of the time previously, doubling his changeup usage and seeing massive improvements in the quantity and quality of contact departments. His fastball Stuff+ has dramatically improved as well, going from 96 to 109 which could have to do with a slight uptick in velocity alongside better synergy with his secondary pitches.
As for Luis Gil, he’s a perplexing pitcher but he can miss bats and limits damage contact. Sure, walks are not great, but does that mean the Yankees should completely ice him out of the mix? Absolutely not, and while I have worries about how he would look in a bullpen role, he does have the arsenal that works in short spurts and missing a ton of bats.
I haven’t been blown away with him since returning from the IL but I have been happy with his overall performance on the mound, and recency bias can be very dangerous when it comes to decision-making. His body of work is the best when you account for run prevention and volume among any starter on the Yankees this season, and I’d rather have a pitcher who puts too many guys on first base than one who gives up too many home runs. He’s young and shows his youth when things don’t go well, which does factor into my decision to not start him out of the gate in October, but he’s a weapon.
Marcus Stroman isn’t in the rotation mix for me but probably will grab a bullpen spot because he’s a veteran and the Yankees would like to have as much long-relief depth as possible. He’s struggled to miss bats and limit damage contact, which is a dangerous combination for a postseason situation, but hey if they need someone to mop up innings in a playoff game he’s probably going to provide some value. This staff is deeper than previous versions of the New York Yankees, and it could be a strength for this team in October.