Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Yankees are “increasingly likely” to go for a less expensive option at first base than Christian Walker or Pete Alonso, but also noted that things remain fluid. While New York likes someone like Walker, losing two draft picks and International Free Agent money could be too much to cough up on top of handing out a three-year commitment that hamstrings the team if he ages rapidly. Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt stand out among the low-cost options as players who bring defense and veteran leadership to the roster.
All four of these players have compelling cases for being the best option for the Yankees at first base, coming with their own unique pros and cons that could either entice or deter Brian Cashman from inking them to a deal this winter.
Should the Yankees Bring Queens’ Home Run Maestro to the Bronx?
Steamer Projections: 125 wRC+ | .809 OPS | 38 HR | 2.8 fWAR | -12.9 DEF
Pete Alonso is your prototypical slugger, mashing home runs with ease and being the kind of hitter you can slot right into the middle of the lineup to add much-needed slug. Last season he played all 162 games, hitting .240 with a 122 wRC+ while mashing 34 home runs, but it was a step back from what Mets fans have become used to seeing from the All-Star infielder. His .459 SLG% and .219 ISO were career-worst marks as he couldn’t launch the ball out of the yard the way he could in previous seasons, and his AVG and OBP were underwhelming as well.
In 2023 the concerns with his .217 AVG and .318 OBP could be quelled by pointing out that he had a .205 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) compared to his career average of .274, but in 2024 his BABIP was .276. His decreasing line drive rates and increasing groundball rates are of great concern, but if the Yankees can get his swing path back on track he could go back to smashing 40+ home runs with a wRC+ in the 130-140 range. Even if you could get a 125 wRC+, it would be a huge help for an offense that lost Juan Soto, but there are more than just offensive concerns here.
With the addition of Max Fried and the team’s devotion to run prevention early on in the offseason, bringing in one of the worst defensive first basemen in the game would be quite awkward. Furthermore, Pete Alonso is going to command some serious money and his bat has steadily declined over the past three seasons. The Yankees would be hoping to turn Alonso around at the plate so his OPS can outweigh the abysmal defense, and that’s a gamble you have to take while also forking over two more draft picks and losing some more IFA money.
If it’s a one-year or two-year deal, I would be far more open to the idea of signing Alonso who still is a good first baseman that makes any team better. That being said, if he’s taking a flier deal and isn’t getting a nine-figure deal over 5-6 years, wouldn’t he just go back to the Mets? He’s expressed interest in being a lifelong Met and Steve Cohen has expressed public interest in retaining him; there’s not a world where I see the Yankees getting a discount over their Queens counterpart considering they’re in the incumbent team for the player.
Few free agents are as compelling as Pete Alonso in terms of the unpredictability of his free agent market, but the Yankees aren’t who I would select as the likeliest candidates to scoop him up on a short-term deal.
Will the Yankees Revisit Talks With This Gold Glove First Baseman?
Steamer Projections: 119 wRC+ | .786 OPS | 32 HR | 2.5 fWAR | -11.5 DEF
Projections don’t do Christian Walker justice on the defensive side of the ball; he’s one of the best defensive players in the sport and has held it down at first base consistently in Arizona. He has the most WAR for any first baseman on this list over the last three seasons and is the second-best hitter of the group, making him the best player among this four-man free-agent group. The Yankees’ odds of signing Walker went from pretty likely to seriously in flux after reports that they may not be super into adding him because of the price tag.
The flaws in Christian Walker’s profile stem from his age; he’s entering his age-34 season and there’s a real concern that any year could be last being an All-Star caliber first baseman. The Yankees want to avoid adding another bad contract considering that DJ LeMahieu and Marcus Stroman currently eat up over $30 million on the Luxury Tax. That being said, Walker made some improvements in his profile in 2024, and I think he could have an even better 2025 season than we’ve seen in 2023 or 2024 if he maintains them.
READ MORE: Yankees could upgrade first base with 30+ home run hitter from Guardians
His ability to do damage on contact improved dramatically while making better swing decisions and having virtually unchanged contact rates. The Yankees need someone who can charge the ball into the stands, and while Pete Alonso adds some home run power and is a slightly better bat, Walker brings one of the best gloves at the position. The Yankees are all in on run prevention, this would certainly help them accomplish those goals as it would give them two Gold Glove winners in their infield with Anthony Volpe at shortstop and Walker at first base.
Christian Walker is an excellent player; his flaw has more to do with what the Yankees would have to cough up to sign him and how he’ll age, but the fit is there. If you have concerns about how he’ll age that’s totally fine, but if you’re getting the production we’ve seen over the last three seasons, this team is getting a monumental upgrade over Anthony Rizzo last season. With Cody Bellinger and a potential 2B/3B upgrade, perhaps the Yankees can make up for what they lost with Juan Soto.
An Emerging Candidate to Become the Yankees’ Primary 1B
Steamer Projections: 111 wRC+ | .753 OPS | 23 HR |1.8 fWAR | -13.0 DEF
If you got what Steamer believes Paul Goldschmidt will provide a team in 2025, I would be beyond happy with the Yankees acquiring him on a one-year deal, but I’m not extremely confident in his bat improving from last season. He experienced massive regression in both swing decision scores and contact rates as he sold out to pull the ball more, and while I would applaud such an adjustment in most cases, this is a tell-tale sign of a hitter whose skills are declining. It’s an adjustment made to compensate for worsening bat speed and strength, so why are the Yankees even interested?
For starters, Goldschmidt still murders left-handed pitching, hitting .295 with a 134 wRC+ and 16.8% strikeout rate against them this season. The Yankees struggled to generate slug against LHP and at the very least he would provide an option who can crush them, but I doubt that Brian Cashman would invest $10 million to acquire a player who only plays against lefties, who make up less than 50% of the pitching population. What I do think the Yankees are doing here is trying to acquire a player who could benefit from leaving their home ballpark similar to Cody Bellinger.
According to Expected Home Runs on Baseball Savant, Paul Goldschmidt would have hit 25 home runs instead of 22 had he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium. What the Yankees might be able to do is help Goldschmidt look to the oppposite field more since his raw power is still very good, as having a less pull-reliant approach could help his chase rates and contact rates improve. That being said, father time has never been defeated, and the data from 2024 leads me to believe that it may have been his final year as a positive WAR player.
He had a .270 wOBA against pitches at or above 95 MPH, he whiffed and chased more than at any point of his career, and it was his worst xwOBA of his career (.333) since the metric was first tracked in 2015. I’m just not sure this is an appropriate route for the Yankees to take as it places immediate pressure on Ben Rice to be a productive player. People will cite his encouraging second-half numbers, but that was the same argument made for DJ LeMahieu entering 2024, who fell off of a cliff.
Furthermore, second-half wRC+ is not more predictive than full-season wRC+, and Paul Goldschmidt has seen a 75-point drop in wRC+ over the course of two years.
The Yankees Could Target This Switch-Hitting Veteran For First Base
Steamer Projections: 105 wRC+ | .727 OPS | 20 HR |1.1 fWAR | -10.5 DEF
Similar to Christian Walker, I believe that Carlos Santana’s defensive projections undersell just how good he is at first base, as he posted +14 Outs Above Average and +8 Defensive Runs Saved there last season. He won the AL Gold Glove, and the offensive projections for him are a lot more stable in my opinion than Paul Goldschmidt, who didn’t see a regression in swing decisions, contact rates, or quality of contact compared to his 2023 season. Just like the 2022 NL MVP, Santana crushes left-handed pitching and provides a cheap veteran presence.
If you go through all of his batted balls, Carlos Santana had one home run that wouldn’t have gone out at Yankee Stadium and six non-homers that would have left the yard in the Bronx. If you add five more home runs to Santana’s 23-HR count you have quite the power hitter and most of the home runs he would have gained came while he was hitting left-handed. Last season he was underwhelming against RHP with a 96 wRC+ against them, but the Yankees might be able to get better production out of him with a short porch in right field giving him a boost.
Furthermore, his well-rounded approach is something that would entice a team like the Yankees who seek anything better than the league-worst .619 OPS they got from their first basemen last season.
He does a good job not chasing and pulling the ball in the air at an advanced age which indicates that the plate discpline hasn’t eroded yet, and the contact rates are in-line with his career numbers. He doesn’t strike out a ton and you’re going to get about 20 home run power with the upside for 25 home runs if Yankee Stadium fits his swing the way it should. Carlos Santana may not get more than Paul Goldschmidt, and while his ability to impart damage on contact isn’t as strong, the other skills look as good as they always have.
Santana provides the Yankees and Ben Rice with the same veteran presence that Goldschmidt does but is coming off of a season that gives you more hope for 2025. Both hitters would fit Yankee Stadium well which makes this a smart market for Brian Cashman to explore, but my view is that Santana is the better player right now. If the Yankees choose to sign either of these two players, they’re taking a gamble based on their age, but I think you roll the dice with someone who still has good bat-to-ball skills and an excellent understanding of the strike zone.
You still have to be wary of his age; Santana is entering his age-39 season, and among the 11 players who have played in their age-39 season and have recorded at least 200 plate appearances, only four of them have posted a wRC+ above 100, and six of them ran a wRC+ below 90.