Can the 2020 Yankees eclipse the 1998 114 wins and win a 28th World Series?

New York Yankees, Gleyber Torres
Oct 7, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) looks on during the seventh inning of game three of the 2019 ALDS playoff baseball series against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees take steps to stay healthy

The challenge for the Yankees this year will be keeping the team healthy.   Last year while capturing 103 wins, the Yankees suffered unprecedented injuries to 30 players in 39 individual incidents. The Yankees this offseason has taken steps to address the problem. First, by hiring a new training and conditioning coach. They have employed Eric Cressey to oversee their training and conditioning.  Last year’s strength and conditioning coach Matt Krause was recently fired, as reported earlier by the New York Post.  Cressey is somewhat of a star in athletic performance circles.  He has worked with other teams and with pitchers like the New York Mets’ Noah Syndergaard, the Washington Nationals Max Scherzer, and the Cleveland Indians Cory Kluber, who is now a Texas Ranger.  Cressey co-founded Cressey Sports Performance, which has facilities in Massachusetts and Florida.  According to reports, Cressey will be allowed to continue his work with other teams but will oversee everything that has to do with the training and conditioning of the Yankee players.

The Yankees have also replaced their long-time head athletic trainer Steve Donohue, and have promoted his assistant Trainer Michael Schuk, who has been with the training staff for the last six years. Donohue had been the head trainer since the legendary trainer Gene Monahan retired after the 2011 season. “Stevey” Donohue was not fired but will take on an essential consulting role.

The Yankees pitching rotation improves with a real ace and a returning ace

Last year the Yankees went all but the last two weeks without their pitching ace Luis Severino who was injured during spring training and then injured again during rehab.   He is back this year and ready to pitch.  During the offseason, the Yankees Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner made one of the best moves in recent years by going out and acquiring the best pitcher out there, Gerrit Cole, formerly with the Pirates and most recently the ace of the Astros staff.  This year we are looking at a steady rotation that leads off with Gerrit Cole.

Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole has done nothing but get better during his career.  With the Pirates for five seasons, he was 59-42, which would be a satisfactory record for a pitcher on any team. After being traded to the Houston Astros in 2018, he would have a breakout season going 15-5 with an ERA of 2.8.  In 2019, he bested that with an additional five wins with the same losses and an improved ERA of 2.50. His ERA was once again improved in the postseason when he lowered it to 1.305 and a record of 4-1. There is no reason to assume he will get less than several wins in the high teens this coming year. If the rest of the pitching staff performs similar as they did last season, that means an additional 3 or 4 wins at the least on the season. If Luis Severino pitches to his capabilities, this could be a year where the Yankees could eclipse the 1998 season.

Luis Severino: Severino, this year, will be coming back from a season where he didn’t pitch until the last two weeks of the season.  In 2017 he was 14-6, and in 2018, he was 19-8 with an ERA of 3.39.  Both years he was in the running for the Cy Young Award and an All-Star.  This past season during spring training, he suffered rotator cuff inflammation, and when he was recovering from that,  a stubborn lat strain that had him away from the team until late September.  In his 2019 games, he was 1-1 with an ERA of 1.50.  In the postseason against the Twins, he pitched four innings of the no-run ball in the Yankees win in the ALDS against the Twins.  In the ALCS, he pitched 4.1 innings giving up two runs in a game the Yankees lost to the Houston Astros.  In that three-game homestand, the Yankees lost all of their games at the Stadium. The Yankees are hoping a rested, and injury-free Severino will return to his 2018 form.  If he does, he could compete with Cole as the Yankee’s best pitcher.

James Paxton: Paxton started the season slowly, but came on strong in the second half of the season.  The Yankees won all of his last eleven starts in which he recorded ten wins in a row. He ended the season at 15-6. He lost all five games he pitched in July.  Had he not had a bad July, he could have had the best record of any Yankee pitcher.  In this postseason, he gave up three runs in the game against Twins in the ALDS; in a game, the Yankees ultimately won.  In the ALCS against the Houston Astros, he allowed just two runs in 8.1 innings in a win against the Astros in Houston.  Paxton will be a free agent after this season.  Although Paxton is 31, he should have several more years of production.  The Yankees should offer him an extension of 3-4 years at similar pay.  Paxton is a relatively inexpensive number 2 or 3 starter.

Masahiro Tanaka: Masahiro Tanaka, when he was signed with the Yankees in 2014 he was supposed to be a top-line pitcher, and he didn’t disappoint.  In 2014 he went 13-5 with a 2.77 ERA — 2015 and 2016 were outstanding seasons when he recorded a 26-11 record.  In 2017 he started to show a decline in his four-seam fastball and had a poor season resulting in a 13-12 record.  Although he has approved somewhat in the past two years, he is showing signs of decline and continues to give up the long ball.  He is dependable and gives it his all in every start.  He has addressed the reduced velocity of his fastball, relying more on his slider and splitter this past season.  Like Paxton Tanaka also is a free agent after this season.  However, unlike Paxton, he is an expensive pitcher.   Considering what is out there to replace him, I would offer him an extension to his contract for a short period, say two years at a somewhat reduced annual salary.

Domingo German:  German came into his own during 2019, being asked to be a fill-in for the rehabbing Luis Severino. The Yankees were hoping he would at least be even in his win and loss record.  But German answered the calling by going 18-4,  before being suspended for breaking MLB rules on domestic violence.  If he had not been suspended, he may have had a 20 plus winning season and could have had a significant impact on the outcome of the Yankee postseason.  He will miss the first 63 games of the season, but considering last year’s record, he will likely replace whoever is in the fifth spot in the rotation upon his return.   Depending on how things go during spring training,  Jordan Montgomery will probably be the fifth starter in the rotation to begin the season, unless J.A Happ over performs in his spring and is not traded.

The Yankees bullpen remains one of the strongest in baseball

The Yankees have resigned Zack Britton to a three-year contract with an opt-out that will keep Britton in the pen for at least the next two years.  According to reports, they are close to a deal that will bring Adam Ottavino back. The contract they are closing in on will keep Ottavino with the Yankees for three years for $27MM.   The other two big names in the pen are workhorses Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green .  Green is like a utility reliever that can open a game, set up, or even close when needed.  There is further depth in the pen with Luis Cessa, who is commonly a long reliever, Ben Heller, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Michael King, both of the previous two can start or relieve.  To round out the bullpen is closer Aroldis Chapman, who has lost a few mph in his fastball but is still unhittable.  Chapman was the AL reliever of the year last season.

The  Starting lineup with the Fearsome Foursome

The Yankees starting lineup, when healthy, can match or exceed any team in baseball. To lead off is last year’s Silver Slugger, who has the nickname “the machine” for his ability to get on base, DJ LeMahieu.  Then enters the fearsome foursome of Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez.  For opposing pitchers, there is no relief at the bottom of the lineup as it includes Brett Gardner, who hit 28 homers last year, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, lefty Mike Tauchman and DH of Miquel Andujar if he is not traded.   When these players are all clicking, ten or more runs in a game is a possibility.  Last year with all the injuries and fill-in players, they averaged 5.6 runs per game.   Manager Aaron Boone has to work to rest these players throughout the season so they can be as fresh as possible in the postseason.  Last year the bats fell mostly silent in the postseason.  Many complain, and rightly so that the Houston Astros cheated by electronic sign-stealing while playing against the Yankees and other teams.  The fact is that the Yankees would likely not have won the 2017 ALCS against the Astros, regardless of the cheating.  We scored only three runs over four games played at Minutemaid Park.  No matter how good your pitching is, it remains that you must score runs.   In the 2019 ALCS, we scored 13 runs in 3 games at Minutemaid.  That is doable with good pitching.   The bottom line is that this year the Yankees have both a formidable lineup and pitching staff that could eclipse the record season of 1998.

There are still a few questions to be answered as we approach spring training.  Those questions are if the Yankees will trade J.A. Happ or Miguel Andujar.  If Cameron Maybin, who is still a free agent, will return to the team, he would like too, but it depends on if a contract can be reached.   There is also the question of what role Mike Ford and Tyler Wade will play.  With Ford and Wade, a lot will be determined by how they both perform during spring training.

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