When you’re trying to figure out the Yankees’ evaluation of a player, their actions often speak louder than their words, and their decision to give the Qualifying Offer to Trent Grisham is rather telling.
A one-year $22 million contract helped push the organization into uncharted territory in terms of spending, as the Yankees could end up over $340 million if they add some bench pieces.
Grisham is coming off of the best season of his career, hitting 34 home runs in 143 games as he stole an outfield job from Jasson Dominguez, but is this level of faith in his breakout ill-advised?
Outlier seasons can present some difficult conversations about the sustainability of that production, even if it came with great underlying metrics, which presents the question: are the Yankees in over their heads here?
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The Unsustainable Parts Of Trent Grisham’s 2025 Outburst
An easy statistic to point out as unsustainable was Trent Grisham’s Home Run to Flyball% (HR/FB%), which was a career-high 21.5% when his career average is 13% and the league-average is 11.9%.
Even with more pulled flyballs and good exit velocities on those flyballs, I would be making a safer bet by betting that number to drop this upcoming season even with the short porch in right field to aid him.
I would expect Trent Grisham’s HR total to drop to around 25, which is where most projection sites have him if you prorate his games played to the 140-150 range.
The other area I expect him to regress is in high-leverage production, Grisham had an insane .846 SLG% and 238 wRC+ in 46 Plate Appearances in what FanGraphs consideres a ‘High Leverage’ situation.
This is the aspect of his 2025 season I’m most confident he will not repeat; I do not believe Grisham has a magic trait that allows him to perform better in big moments and instead think it was very fortunate sequencing.
Remember when Anthony Volpe outhit Aaron Judge in the 2024 postseason? These things can just happen at random and I ultimately do not put much stock into it.
On the flip side, there were some ways in which Trent Grisham was unlucky in a way that I don’t find sustainable, which I think aren’t highlighted enough on the public side.
The first has to do with his offense against lefties, which I was surprised to see was so excellent from a process standpoint given the poor results (.652 OPS).
He had a .795 Expected OPS and only a .202 BABIP against left-handed pitching, I would expect his BABIP and overall luck against lefties to improve given how much damage he did on contact in those scenarios.
I also would look to see if that strikeout rate (23.6%) will come down a little, while his patience at the plate will cause his K% to underperform his contact rate, I think the ABS challenge system could help someone who knows the zone well.
Now that we have the traits of his 2025 season that one should expect some regression in, both positive and negative, what should you expect from Trent Grisham in 2026?
Will the Yankees Get a Good Return on Their One-Year Investment?
Some seasons are just outliers; a hitter or pitcher can get incredibly lucky or unlucky for a season and then have it all come crashing down the following year.
What Trent Grisham did last season is partially fueled by luck in terms of how often he was able to get his A-Swing off, reflected in his Fast Swing%, but I think the improvements he made mechanically are legit.
His swing path and barrel accuracy are better, allowing him to make more contact in-zone and have better directionality with his flyballs.
The Yankees took a patient hitter who had displayed solid barrel rates and batted ball data in the past and made minor tweaks to blend those skills into a high OBP and high SLG% hitter.
Projections have him being around 10-15% better than the league-average hitter, providing around a .330 OBP and 20+ home runs for the team.
If the defense doesn’t take another stepback, then this is a pretty good player to have on a one-year deal and he should make this roster much better than it would look like without him.
Before the signing occurred, I noted that the Yankees would need a centerfielder because Cody Bellinger was best used as a left fielder, and that’s where Trent Grisham adds a little more value to the team.
Their outfield defense, even if he isn’t very good out there anymore, will be better with him out in center than it would with Bellinger in center and Jasson Dominguez in left.
The projections that are out there for Trent Grisham would be a good outcome for this deal, but time will tell if he ends up being the guy the Yankees need in center this season.
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