Ryan Garcia
Last year we did bold predictions for the Yankees and I thought I did an okay job all things considered, nailing Cody Bellinger’s emergence while falling flat on my face with Mark Leiter Jr.
It was a fairly boring list though, instead of just looking at some obvious ERA regression candidates or established stars, let’s try and get a little bit crazy here.
We’re going to have some takes that are more mild than others, but I wanted to have some scorchers in here that I can hang my hat on if correct and pretend never happened if I’m dead wrong.
This year’s edition was a doozy, but without further ado let’s log the five bold predictions I have about the Yankees heading into the 2026 season.
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J.C. Escarra Has An OPS+ At or Above 100 In 2026
J.C. Escarra set a new high in Max Exit Velocity (112 MPH) this Spring Training with a new torpedo bat, and it should go nicely with his already-existing plate skills.
He was in the 95th Percentile in Zone Contact% while also being in the 91st Percentile in Chase% in his brief time with the Yankees last season, and I think that feel for contact will translate once again in 2026.
It’s unsure how many games he’ll get and if he will even finish the season with the Yankees given their lack of right-handed catching depth and the question of whether Ben Rice can actually be a backup catcher or not looming.
This is a pretty ballsy pick given that Escarra has never shown any inklings of being a capable MLB hitter until after he signed with the Yankees as a 29-year-old coming out of independant ball in Gastonia.
Even if the exit velocities do not get meaningfully better, Escarra had a 90.8 Average Exit Velocity with a 47.1% GB%, if the Yankees can get more contact in the air to the pull-side out of him, there’s a real chance the SLG% explodes.
I’m not predicting some monster season, but I could totally see a .240/.330/.4000 slashline which would be a .730 OPS, a mark that was about 11 points better than the league-average last season.
Brent Headrick is One of the 30 Best Relievers in Baseball
The Yankees are going to need someone to step up in this bullpen and they’re certainly betting on one of their breakout picks to do so, which is why I think Brent Headrick will be afforded every opportunity to prove himself.
With a 93-96 MPH fastball that has 17-18 inches of ride and elite-level extension he should be able to pick up a healthy amount of whiffs on those pitches, but I believe in his secondaries more than I did last season.
He already ran a strikeout rate above 32% last season, and now he’s added a sinker to help him out against lefties and seems to have a better feel for his slider, which could be platoon neutral due to its bullet-like action.
I thought the Yankees screwed up by not having him on last year’s playoff roster despite his relative MLB inexperience as a high-leverage reliever, and this is their chance to correct that.
You always want to bet on guys who were already wildly successful the year prior that are seeing an extended look the following season, and with a healthy camp, Brent Headrick has momentum to have a big season.
Ryan Weathers Starts a Playoff Game For the Yankees
In theory, the Yankees should have a fairly easy playoff rotation to put together; Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Cam Schlittler in whatever order works best…which is probably not going to happen.
So far they’ve avoided injuries, but it is a matter of when not if the pre-season planning has to get ripped up, which is why I think Ryan Weathers will start a postseason game for the Yankees.
The shape of his pitches look excellent which is why Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model has him juiced all the way up to 118 during Spring Training.
I’m specifcally excited about his sinker which is averaging between 17-18 inches of arm-side movement at 95-99 MPH, the pitch is gross and could be a real weapon for him against lefties and righties.
One aspect of Ryan Weathers that goes under-the-radar? He has a 3.74 ERA from 2024-2025 across 125 innings with a 4.00 SIERA, when he’s healthy he’s pretty solid and I think there’s improvement for more.
Maybe the stuff just shoots up and he stinks. I guess that would be kind of funny. We’re just small living creatures on a floating rock in the middle of nowhere.
Austin Wells is a Top 3 Catcher in the American League
Austin Wells has been a weird hitter in the big leagues, he’s fluctuated from super aggressive to incredibly patient and I’m not sure which version of him we’ll get in 2026.
I’m forecasting that disciplined hitter who had a 107 wRC+ while underperforming his expected numbers will shine once again in 2026, and with his elite defense this should be a ~4 WAR player as a full-time starter.
There’s a lot to like with Wells and what he can be as a left-handed hitter with a pull-heavy swing at Yankee Stadium, but those K-BB rates need to improve badly from 2025.
He’s displayed better swing tendencies in the World Baseball Classic and Spring Training which isn’t conclusive but at least backs up his admission over the winter that his aggression went too unchecked at times.
I don’t even think he has to give up much game power to get that patience back, he got incredibly unlucky in 2024 and should have been a 110-115 OPS+ hitter based on his batted ball profile.
You can track my belief in Austin Wells back to 2022, where I called him a more important prospect than Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez (NAILED it), and I’m taking a heat check here with the young catcher.
The Yankees Are A Top 5 Defense in MLB This Season
The Yankees finished with +9 Fielding Run Value last season, good for 12th in Major League Baseball and well behind the fifth-best team (Red Sox, +21).
I think they’re going to take a big step forward defensively in 2026 with some improvements at positions such as shortstop, third base, and the outfield.
You’d likely expect regression from Cody Bellinger’s insanely good defensive numbers in the outfield (especially the corners) but I think that’ll be offset by fewer Jasson Dominguez starts in LF and Giancarlo Stanton starts in RF.
As for the infield, I’m both expecting for better defensive numbers from Anthony Volpe and more comfortable with Aaron Boone’s leash for him given that they pulled the plug on him at times when things got bad for Jose Caballero.
There’s a non-zero chance that George Lombard Jr. can come up as well and I think he’s a future Gold Glove winner there for what that’s worth.
Ryan McMahon is awesome at third base, Jazz Chisholm can just stick to second base, and Ben Rice is handling his scoops much better while also being a pretty good athlete who can move well at first base.
It would be their first top-five placement since 2024, when the Yankees did not have a complete meltdown in a must-win game that is still talked about daily over a year later.
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