3 Yankees Who Will Crush Their 2026 Projections

Steamer has dropped their projections for the 2026 season on FanGraphs, and I’ve been combing through what they forecast the Yankees to look like for weeks.

The offense should be strong, the pitching staff has some questions, but there’s an overall optimistic outlook on a team that still feels very incomplete.

We’re going to be looking at those very same projections and identifying which players I believe will perform better than expected by FanGraphs.

These models are built very well; they aren’t perfect but no projection system is, so if I can get 1-2 right I’ll be pretty happy with the outcome of this list.

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Ryan McMahon Flourishes in First Full Season With the Yankees

Steamer Projections: .679 OPS | 92 wRC+ | 14 HR | 92 wRC+

Last season we didn’t see much offensively from Ryan McMahon, he recorded an 86 wRC+ and hit just .214 across 154 games between Colorado and New York.

With that being said, he’s roughly a league-average hitter against RHP and showed promise with a career-best 93.3 MPH Average Exit Velocity and 12.1% Barrel%.

He also set a new career-high in Pull AIR% at 17%, the first time he ever had a season where he had an above-average mark in that statistic.

If the Yankees can get McMahon to perform closer to his expected power output instead of a measly .381 SLG% and .167 ISO, then he could end up being one of the better bottom-of-the-order bats in the game.

One of the biggest driving points working against an over on the wRC+ and OPS is the lack of PAs he could have against lefties this upcoming season.

A little over 22% of his PAs came against lefties this season, if he gets closer to 10-15% in that department, I’d expect some offensive improvement even if he doesn’t actually make any material changes.

The Rotation Gets a Step Forward From Will Warren

Steamer Projections: 4.09 ERA | 4.16 FIP | 22.5% K% | 8.1% BB%

Will Warren posted a 4.07 FIP and 14.9% K-BB% last season and Steamer projects him to slightly take a step back in both statistics, but I’m confident he’ll be better in 2026.

The Yankees have done excellent work with these low arm angle supinators in recent memory, think of guys like Clarke Schmidt, Michael King, and on the Minor League side Elmer Rodriguez.

I believe Warren’s improved fastball effectiveness was a big step forward for him, but this year is about locating the secondary pitches better to get some more strikeouts.

He overly relied on the four-seamer down the stretch, throwing it over 45% of the time in his final 10 starts, finding a way to mix-in more sweepers and changeups should help him improve his Whiff%.

When evaluating his 2025 season, it reminds me a lot of Clarke Schmidt’s 2023 season where he posted a 4.63 ERA and also struggled with locating his sweeper as batters demolished it consistently.

Similar to how Schmidt found his breaking ball in that second full season starting, I think Warren finally develops that feel for the pitch and comes into 2026 as a ~3.90 ERA pitcher over 150 IP.

Ben Rice is Projected to Be Really Good; I Expect Him to Be Dominant

You might feel like this is a wasted spot given that the previous two entries aren’t considered core pieces of the roster, but Ben Rice’s 125 wRC+ and .808 OPS projections are low to me.

There’s some regression you could bake in from the previous season since he’ll be facing lefties more frequently, but about 22.5% of his plate appearances from last season came against southpaws.

Last season the average number of plate appearances taken against lefties was 27.2%, so I don’t expect a 4.3% increase in matchups against him to make him 8% worse offensively from the year prior.

Furthermore, his underlying metrics were elite, combining elite quality of contact numbers with good quantity of contact data, in simpler terms he hit the ball hard and made a lot of contact.

I think a second full season of Ben Rice will produce a wRC+ in the 135-140 range and as a full-time first baseman, that’ll be worth around 3.5-4.0 WAR depending on how the defense looks at the position.

He’s already projected to have the same wRC+ as Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers, but I’m going to say that he ends up putting up the kind of season that gets him down-ballot MVP votes.