The New York Mets entered 2025 hoping Kodai Senga would finally anchor their rotation the way they imagined when they signed him out of Japan. Three years later, that vision remains only partially realized. Senga has been electric when healthy, but “when healthy” has become the lingering disclaimer that defines his tenure in Queens.
Senga’s deal — five years, $75 million — looked like a masterclass in scouting and risk management when he first arrived. His 2023 debut backed that up, with 166.1 innings of 2.98 ERA baseball, dominant stuff, and the kind of poise the Mets have long craved at the top of their rotation. But durability, not talent, has been the problem ever since.
Injuries have limited his ceiling
The past two years have tested the Mets’ patience. Senga managed only 5.1 innings in 2024 after dealing with multiple setbacks, and while he bounced back in 2025 with a solid 3.02 ERA over 113.1 innings, the workload was still well below what an ace should handle.
His strikeouts dipped, and he issued 4.37 walks per nine innings — signs that his command wasn’t quite where it was two years ago. Yet, when he was on the mound, Senga still looked the part. His forkball remains one of baseball’s nastiest pitches, baffling hitters and masking some of the inconsistencies elsewhere in his arsenal.
At $15 million per year, the Mets are still getting strong value. They just can’t rely on him to carry a staff, and that’s forcing them to look elsewhere for a new No. 1 arm.
The stuff is still elite
What makes Senga so intriguing — and so frustrating — is that the stuff hasn’t gone anywhere. Opponents hit just .130 against his forkball this past season, and it generated a whiff rate north of 41%. It’s a pitch that moves unlike anything else in baseball, spinning at only 1,193 RPMs and tumbling like a knuckleball at 82.5 mph.
That pitch alone keeps him relevant, even when his four-seam fastball isn’t at its sharpest. Hitters tagged the heater for a .279 average this year, but with better sequencing and a higher forkball usage rate (currently at 28.5%), Senga could rediscover the balance that made him unhittable in 2023.
Searching for the next ace
The Mets know what they have in Senga: a talented, battle-tested pitcher who can dominate in stretches but can’t be penciled in for 180 innings. That’s why they’re expected to chase another ace this winter, either through trade or free agency.
It’s not about replacing Senga — it’s about protecting him. The Mets have an affordable, top-tier arm under contract until 2027, with a club option in 2028, but they need someone to stabilize the rotation around him.
If Senga can give them 100 to 120 innings of sub-3.20 ERA baseball, he’s worth every dollar. The question now is whether the Mets can finally build the kind of rotation depth that lets him thrive without carrying the weight of an entire pitching staff.
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