Predicting the New York Mets Starting Rotation

New York Mets, Noah Syndergaard, yankees
Sep 29, 2019; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets come into the 2020 season with a pitching staff spearheaded by back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. The rest of the rotation following deGrom continues to be one of the best in baseball and puts itself up there with the best in the National League.

The #1: Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom is good at getting hitters out. That is all you need to read.

The #2: Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard was inconsistent throughout the 2019 season but rejuvenated his Thor persona during the second half of the season. Despite having a 4.28 ERA, highest of his career, he made 30+ starts for the first time since his All-Star season in 2016. In the second half of 2019, he pitched to a 3.82 ERA, and his K per BB ratio was on par with deGrom. Heading into his age-27, Syndergaard can easily become ace 1a with deGrom.

The #3: Marcus Stroman

Whether the antics please you or not, the substance meets the style with Marcus Stroman. When he joined the Mets at the trade deadline in 2019, he did not pitch at his expectations, but the numbers were still solid. He had a 3.77 ERA over 11 starts, and his K/9 increased from his time with Toronto. No longer the ace, like he was in Toronto, Stroman should settle in nicely to the top three the Mets have. Stroman would easily be the best pitcher on a third of the teams in baseball and gives the Mets a high caliber third starter.

The #4: Steven Matz

Steven Matz has always been a compelling case for the Mets. He shows glimpses of brilliance but is never consistent enough to rise up the rotation. During 2019, Matz set career highs in games, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Taking away his nightmare 2017, he has a 3.77 career ERA, which is above average for a fourth starter. Anywhere between his career 3.77 and 2019, 4.21 ERA should be the expectation for him in 2020.

The #5: Rick Porcello

Rick Porcello is coming off a lousy 2019 season, where his home run rate went above one for the third straight season. Throughout his career, he rarely puts together back to back years that resemble each other. For the Mets’ sake, they hope to get a good year out of him. He should have an easier time pitching in the NL East where the DH does not exist along with having the face the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. If Porcello pitches well enough to get through 180 innings, his production should be in line with what the Mets expect from a fifth starter. The fifth starter becomes a reliever in the playoffs, so any season he had before 2019 would be fine for Porcello, barring injuries to his fellow starters.