Sometimes, greatness doesn’t scream — it whispers, quietly dominating while the spotlight shines elsewhere. Kodai Senga knows that feeling well.
Through more than two months of the 2025 MLB season, the New York Mets right-hander has done nothing but dazzle.
Yet, somehow, when MLB.com experts listed their early Cy Young favorites, his name was nowhere to be found.
Not fifth. Not even an honorable mention. Just… omitted.
Experts favor big names and WAR, but is that the whole story?
The five pitchers deemed top-tier so far are impressive: Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb, and MacKenzie Gore. It’s a well-rounded list featuring dominant arms and rising stars.
Four of those names — all but Yamamoto — also sit high on the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards, a stat increasingly used to measure overall pitching value.
The consensus is clear: voters are valuing WAR more than ever. But should they?
WAR, after all, is a composite metric. It accounts for strikeouts, walks, innings pitched, and quality of contact, but it sometimes buries the most important task a pitcher has: keeping runs off the board.
ERA: The art of run prevention still matters
Enter Kodai Senga. In 68 innings, he has posted a microscopic 1.59 ERA — the best in the National League and second in all of MLB, behind only Kansas City’s Kris Bubic (1.43). That’s not just good. That’s elite.
Sure, Senga’s stat line doesn’t dazzle in every category. He’s walked 30 batters, and he’s struck out 65 — not quite one per inning. But he has found ways to bear down, get out of jams, and escape trouble with the poise of a veteran ace.
When runners reach scoring position, he tightens the screws. That’s not something WAR always captures. But ERA does — and so does the eye test.
Senga is doing it differently — but effectively
Watching Senga pitch is like watching a chess master sacrifice flash for strategy. He’s not overwhelming batters with raw velocity or eye-popping strikeout numbers. Instead, he’s navigating lineups with grit, guile, and a devastating ghost forkball.
With the help of his defense and some smart pitch sequencing, he’s limiting damage in the most crucial moments. The numbers show it — even if some analysts choose to ignore them.
And that’s where the analogy comes in: Kodai Senga is the pitcher’s version of a quiet student acing the final exam. He may not raise his hand often, but when it matters, he delivers.
Why the early-season snub should be a wake-up call
It’s easy to see why flamethrowers like Skenes and established aces like Wheeler get the attention. They fit the mold, and their dominance is loud.
But awards like the Cy Young shouldn’t be decided by who looks the part or who leads in composite metrics alone.
They should be about who’s actually getting the job done — and no one in the National League is doing it better than Senga in terms of run prevention.
He’s not a name to overlook. He’s a name that belongs right in the heart of the conversation.
Senga may not be everyone’s Cy Young frontrunner right now. But if he keeps this up, he’ll be impossible to ignore.