Mets insider breaks down the team’s 5 X-factors as they try to lock down a postseason spot

Jul 31, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez (4) follows through on an RBI ground out during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It’s funny how expectations work in professional sports, and the New York Mets have a thing or two to say about that. Last year, with a roster full of talented, but aging veterans, they disappointed in the first half and sold at the deadline, missing the postseason. This time, they were supposed to be in a transition year towards contending in 2025, yet here they are, having taken sole possession of a playoff spot via the third Wild Card.

The Mets are ahead of schedule in building a playoff team

Jul 12, 2024; New York City, New York, USA;  New York Mets center fielder Harrison Bader (44) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrate after defeating the Colorado Rockies 7-6 at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets needed a top baseball executive to lead an ambitious project, and they got one in David Stearns. They are also in a good position to compete for the foreseeable future regarding their farm system, because Billy Eppler, the former top baseball executive, brought some exciting names via trades before departing.

With savvy baseball leadership, a wealthy and committed owner in Steven Cohen, a solid rookie manager in Carlos Mendoza, the perfect blend of youth and experience, and the guidance of a superstar in his prime in Francisco Lindor, things are looking up for the Mets.

What are the Mets’ X-factors in the Wild Card spots race? SNY’s Danny Abriano identified five of them in his most recent article:

https://twitter.com/SNYtv/status/1833537692765696245?t=vxfCb71H0tFTQE-JQRcy5Q&s=19

Five things to monitor as the Mets try to make the playoffs

Milwaukee Brewers’ motivation to win in their last series of the season: The Brew Crew has an 8.5-game lead ahead of second place in their division. Unless they are trying to catch the Philadelphia Phillies or the Los Angeles Dodgers for one of the top two seeds to secure a first-round bye, they might not have anything to play for when they face the Mets in the last series of the season.

The schedule of their competitors: While the Mets have shown an ability to compete with top teams, the Atlanta Braves have a relatively easy schedule. The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks don’t, though, and that includes a series against each other, which could help New York.

Christian Scott and Kodai Senga’s health: Abriano notes that while the Mets rotation has been excellent in recent months, Senga is eligible to return on September 25 and could do as a starter. We all watched how good he could be last year and in the one start he made this season. Scott is also making strides as he tries to return from a UCL strain.

Jun 1, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets injured starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) throws a baseball in the outfield before a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The tiebreakers: This element in particular is crucial. The Mets have won their season series against the Padres and D-Backs, and they are tied 5-5 with Atlanta with an upcoming three-game set to decide who takes the tiebreaker.

Francisco Alvarez: The powerful catcher is mired in a deep slump at the plate, but he “has shown that he has light-tower power and that he craves game-changing moments. This is someone who hit 25 homers in just 123 games as a 21-year-old rookie,” Abriano wrote. If the Mets can somehow get him going, watch out.

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