The New York Knicks more than impressed in their 4-2 Eastern Conference first-round series win over the Philadelphia 76ers, but they’ll face a new challenge against the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Semifinals.
The Pacers, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, fueled the NBA’s highest-scoring offense to an upset over the Milwaukee Bucks in their first-round series victory. Now, both teams will collide to see who can advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. How good are the Knicks’ chances against the Pacers?
Knicks & Pacers both get offense from many contributors but New York has something Indiana doesn’t
Impressively, the Knicks outgunned a Sixers scoring front led by 2023 scoring champion Joel Embiid’s 33.0 points per game and 2024 All-Star Tyrese Maxey’s 29.8 PPG.
Jalen Brunson went off for 35.5 points per game despite struggling from outside at 30.4 percent and had help from five teammates who scored in double figures for the series.
Though Brunson didn’t have another 20-point-per-game producer alongside him, Josh Hart averaged 16.8 points on 43.2 percent shooting from three-point range and OG Anunoby pitched in 15 PPG on 51.3 percent shooting from the field. Miles McBride also did his job off the bench with 11.3 PPG behind a 48.1/43.3/83.3 percent shooting line.
The Pacers also got scoring up and down their lineup, with six of their own players averaging double figures. However, unlike New York, Indiana was led by 22.3 points per game from Siakam, while Haliburton’s post-All-Star break struggles carried over into the postseason. Haliburton shot 43.5 percent from the field and 29.6 percent from deep against Milwaukee.
Even without 2024 All-Star Julius Randle healthy, who would have given the Knicks a point guard-power forward duo to stack up against the Pacers, New York looks primed to outgun the Pacers on offense. The Knicks shut down every 76ers scorer not named Embiid, Maxey, or Kelly Oubre Jr. to single digits, including Tobias Harris. If they can do the same to the Pacers’ role players, they’ll have a less potent scoring duo to worry about stifling.
The Pacers pose a threat to the Knicks’ high-octane transition offense
The Knicks have the second-highest scoring fast-break offense in these NBA playoffs. New York is putting up 15.7 points per game in transition. However, the Pacers aren’t allowing jets to get turned on. They are the best transition defense, conceding only 17.1 points combined off of the fast break and off of turnovers.
The game slows down in the postseason, and increasingly so as the rounds advance. Albeit, the Knicks will have a successful area of their offense bothered by a Pacers team that gets up and down the floor with bigs in Myles Turner and Siakam who can protect the rim.
The Pacers’ fast break offense (11.8 PPG) is comparable to the Knicks’ defense in that category (11.7 PPG allowed), so Indiana may not get the upper hand in transition.
How both teams may fare in the interior
The Knicks had their way on the offensive glass against the Sixers and were able to turn that success into 19.2 second-chance points per game, a playoff best. Conversely, the Pacers have been strong on the glass, giving up 9.5 offensive rebounds and bringing down 33.5 defensive boards a night.
Additionally, the Pacers rank No. 10 in allowing 43.7 points in the paint. The Bucks did not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series and Damian Lillard missed two games. Yet, Milwaukee was able to convert inside. With the way that Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Mitchell Robinson have played, their activity levels alone position them to get efficient looks at the basket in close.
On the other hand, seeing that the Pacers play well in the pick-and-roll and led the league in paint scoring during the 82-game slate, the Knicks could benefit from enticing Indiana to kick out to their supporting cast for catch-and-shoot opportunities, where they completed 37.2 percent of their looks in the first round. The Pacers only had two role players, Andrew Nembhard and Ben Sheppard, who average better than 30.8 percent from deep (min 10 minutes per game).
How the Knicks can bother the Pacers most on defense in the half-court
Exploring offensive play types, the Pacers thrive in the pick-and-roll. Their ball handlers are the fourth-most efficient unit in screen-and-roll situations, shooting 48.8 percent from the field. They also frequently look to their bigs, who average 9.5 shot attempts when coming off screens. However, they only convert 45.6 percent of those looks.
The Knicks can expect Myles Turner to pop out the three-point line most of the time that they trap Haliburton off of the curl. Siakam likes to swing over to the corners for three-point opportunities and fancies pick-and-pop shots from the free-throw line extended, 15-17 feet out.
If the Knicks can force Haliburton to shoot tough shots and stay home on the Pacers’ rollers, they’ll stand a great chance of containing their screen plays.
Series preview summary
All in all the series will have many components to it, but these factors will be crucial in deciding its winner. Based on what’s been seen through the regular season and the first round, the Pacers may not have an answer for the Knicks’ well-rounded front.
The only point of concern for the Knicks will be whether or not they have enough scorers that can come up big should Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle opt to take Brunson completely out of the game. Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the year with a wrist and foot injury and Donte DiVincenzo couldn’t find his rhythm against Philadelphia. If that persists next round and Brunson sees continual traps, anything could happen.