The 2022 season for the New York Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones presented a glimmer of long-term hope. The free agency class for quarterbacks was thin, and their record put the Giants well out of position to land a young passer in the draft.
General manager Joe Schoen made the executive decision to extend Jones on a four-year, $160 million deal, counting $92 million in total guaranteed money.
This was a substantial investment in a player who certainly wasn’t worth that commitment. Still, the Giants assumed that if Jones took a big step forward after a promising year learning under Brian Daboll’s tutelage, he would be a bargain down the line.
The Giants Became the Warning Sign for Overpaying Mid-Quarterbacks
With the salary cap rising exponentially and quarterbacks becoming more expensive, Jones became the industry example of why you don’t over-commit. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers learned from the Giants’ mistake, signing Baker Mayfield to a deal that averaged $33.3 million per season despite the fact he had a more productive year this past season.
Now, the Giants face a massive decision as the 2024 NFL draft approaches, and the team holds the 6th overall. They will be within range to land at least one of the top four quarterbacks, but that assumes the Giants have one, if not all, highly graded on their draft board.
Running the Daniel Jones Risk
Allowing Jones to recover from injury and start in 2025 is not only a gamble; it’s the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with the team’s cap space in the future.
If Jones suffers another season ending in injury, coming off an ACL tear and neck issue, his 2025 contract becomes fully guaranteed. In other words, instead of taking the out and his deal at $22.2 million, the Giants would owe him $41.6 million in 2025, essentially taking them out of the running for any free-agent expenditures and signings. Running that risk is something that Schoen can’t afford to do if he sees a long-term future for the team and wants to continue rebuilding through the draft and free agency.
Aside from the financial complications presented, Jones only managed to play six games this past season, collecting 909 yards, two touchdown passes, and six interceptions. He’s never been a high-octane passing quarterback, supplementing those deficiencies on the ground.
Considering he’s coming off a significant knee injury, it is safe to assume that his rushing numbers will decrease exponentially, especially since he may not be ready for Week 1 of the regular season.
Keep in mind it took Saquon Barkley a full season to finally get over the ACL tear and feel committed to his rehabilitated knee. The Giants would essentially be throwing the 2024 season in the dumpster unless they draft a new quarterback and replace Jones instantly.
Of course, this is assuming the Giants are OK with drafting J.J. McCarthy, who would likely be the only quarterback remaining on the board with the 6th overall pick.
Of course, they could pivot to a second-round option like Michael Penix or Bo Nix, but the buzz there has been minimal, and the Giants have been linked to McCarthy on a number of occasions. We also have to mention the idea of a trade back, especially with the Minnesota Vikings adding the 23rd overall pick. The Giants would have an opportunity to secure a premium offensive weapon and add another top-level prospect toward the back end of the first round.
The opportunities are certainly available for the Giants, but they have a choice to make: settling on a quarterback remaining on the board or pivoting and trying to solve the position down the line, essentially wasting years from some of their young linchpin pieces.