With the salary cap expected to decrease by as much as $20 million in 2021, the New York Giants might have to make several difficult decisions. As they attempt to bolster both sides of the ball, the Giants are hoping to turn the corner and extract wins out of some of these close losses. Over the past three defeats, they’ve lost by a total of six points, indicating they need to upgrade several positions of weakness, including CB2 and a talented pass rusher.
Free agency and the NFL draft will offer them a chance to do so, and this past offseason is already proving to be significant in the team’s development.
One major decision will come on the defensive line, as both Tomlinson and Williams are in contract years. The Giants hit Williams with the franchise tag, paying him $16.1 million for the 2020 campaign. Tomlinson is preparing to finish his rookie deal and hit the market, so the question is, which player should they keep if they are unable to retain both?
Assessing who the New York Giants should retain in free agency:
Dalvin Tomlinson:
Tomlinson’s value is clear-cut, he is an elite run stopper that doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher. This season, he has a 73.6 overall run grade, a number that has decreased gradually since his rookie season in 2017, per PFF. However, he has racked up 34 combined tackles, six quarterback hits, and 1.5 sacks this year. He has a 12.8% missed tackle rate, which is a bloated number compared to previous years.
Based on the statistics this season, Tomlinson has actually regressed a bit, but that can be coughed up to a new scheme. He is an extremely valuable piece of the defense, and without him, the Giants don’t have the sixth best-run defense in the NFL.
So far this year, he has logged 20 stops, which is a measurement that records how many times a ball carrier is stopped before picking up 40% of the yardage to the first down marker. He’s extremely talented in the trenches and maneuvering his way toward the ball carrier, and losing him would be significant.
The expectation is that he will command a minimum of $8 million per season in free agency, far less than what Leonard Williams is expected to gain.
Leonard Williams:
Moving over to Williams, the value he brings is multifaceted. Not only is Williams a dominant run stopper, but he’s also a fantastic pass rusher.
This season, he is having an exceptional time in Patrick Graham’s scheme. He already has 5.0 sacks in nine games, putting him on pace for close to double digits. He has 32 combined tackles, 11 quarterback hits, and a minimal 5.9% missed tackle rate. He has been dominant in every category, so letting him go might actually be more significant than Tomlinson. The only issue, the number he will command in free agency.
It is possible that Williams is looking for a long-term deal that pays a minimum of $14 million per season. Considering he’s making $16.1 million this year, I can’t imagine he will want much less than that.
The major difference for the Giants, he hasn’t translated directly to wins. That money could be reallocated toward the offense, a unit that has struggled considerably this year. However, Williams is a focal point on defense, and teams have to account for him at all times. He soaks up double teams and still manages to burst through with ease.
After looking at both players, paying more for Williams is worth it, based on his ability to rush the passer at a high-level. You can always find cheaper run-stuffing defensive tackles to fill the void, and overpaying for Tomlinson, despite being a fan favorite, would not be the best decision if the Giants had to pick between the two.