Ethan Cushman
The Ping Pong Balls have determined every NBA lottery team’s fate, possibly for the last time under the current draft lottery format. The Wizards, Grizzlies, and Bulls came away pleased, while Pacers, Nets, and Kings fans suffered.
Every team now knows where they will pick and with that fans can look forward to where we think players will fall based on what teams are selecting where.
We can all give our takes on what should happen, what players will be steals, who will be busts. Based on rumors and own projection, here is the best guess as to what will happen on June 23rd.
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#1 Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
The Wizards don’t overthink it and grab the player who was the number one player in the class before the year, and then follow that up with the best scoring season in all of college basketball last year. He covers all the bases you would want in your first overall pick; flashy enough to sell the fanbase, a great roster fit alongside new additions Trae Young and Anthony Davis, as well as other young cornerstones Alex Sarr, while also having the talent to justify the first overall selection.
Dybantsa is an elite prospect with little doubt. He posted 25.5 points per game—highest in college—with a 60% true shooting percentage. There’s room to grow, but he has the physical tools and athleticism to become a strong defender and improve as a playmaker.
If there was a concern with Dybantsa, it would be his outside jump shot. Dybantsa shot only 33% from three last year, averaging 4 attempts per game. He has solid mechanics and shot well from other areas, showing that he can improve there.
At just 19 years old, Dybantsa has all the upside in the world. While their #1 selection has been debated throughout the season, the Wizards ultimately don’t overthink it and go with the guy who has largely been ranked #1 all along.
#2 Utah Jazz: Cameron Boozer
In my first surprise of the draft, I have the Utah Jazz passing on consensus second overall selection Darryn Peterson for Cameron Boozer. While Peterson’s talent is undeniable, Boozer provides much more stability in many respects, and I am not entirely convinced that NBA front offices will be as forgiving of Peterson’s missed time this past year as fans are.
It is not like the Jazz are getting any form of talent downgrade with Boozer. Boozer’s all-around college production has made him an analytics darling and draft analyst. It almost feels easier to list the advanced stats Boozer didn’t lead in. He led all of college basketball in Player Efficiency Rating, Offensive and Defensive Win Shares, Offensive Box Plus Minus, Total Box Plus Minus, Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating, and Total Bayesian Performance Rating.
Danny Ainge is known for taking the guy he falls in love with, regardless of the consensus. Last year, he stood strong and took Ace Bailey fifth overall despite a falling consensus leading up to the draft. In 2017, as president of the Celtics, he traded back to select the well-rounded Duke wing, Jayson Tatum, instead of the consensus top pick, guard Markelle Fultz (sound familiar).
While Peterson could absolutely be the pick here, there’s just so much that makes Boozer make sense here. From Utah having a lot invested in their score-first backcourt, already featuring Keyonte George and Ace Bailey, to the fact that Cameron’s dad, Carlos, was not only a multi-time all-star with the Jazz but is also currently in their front office. Boozer not only fits the mold of what the Jazz would want, but also has the merit of being selected second overall.
#3 Memphis Grizzlies: Caleb Wilson
With Boozer being seemingly the penciled in third overall pick, the Grizzlies are thrown for a bit of a loop at the 3rd overall selection. While they could easily go with Peterson, who could either form an electric backcourt with Morant or replace his production, I have them sticking to their board and selecting Caleb Wilson.
Analyzing the Grizzlies’ draft strategy, they have often gone with the analytics darling year after year, as their scouting department has relied heavily on online draft analysts. Dating back to 2018, they selected Jaren Jackson Jr. fourth overall, which was seen as a bit high compared to some members of the media. In 2019, they selected Morant over RJ Barrett second overall, a selection that was usually backed by more analytically inclined fans. In 2020 and 2021, they took draft Twitter favorites Desmond Bane and Zaire Williams to varying degrees of success, and even two years ago, they selected Zach Edey, who has grown in popularity in many analytic circles.
While Boozer seemingly fits this bill perfectly, with him not available, I have them selecting Caleb Wilson. Wilson’s dynamic tools have made him popular in many circles.
#4 Chicago Bulls: Darryn Peterson
The Bulls are in a new era, moving on from former president Arturas Karnisovas and coach Billy Donovan after finally showing some willingness to move off of their struggling core. At the beginning of this new era, they get a gift as Bryson Graham and company rush to Adam Silver to deliver the pick of Darryn Peterson at four overall.
Peterson has been under his fair share of scrutiny since the college season began and draft season started. He played only 24 games as a freshman at Kansas due to nagging injuries, which led to criticism and questions about his desire to play. Since then, we have heard many rumors and speculations about what happened during Peterson’s lone year at Kansas, including that creatine overuse led to cramps that kept him out of games. While I don’t think it’s fair to attack or question Peterson’s character, as some have, I do wonder whether teams will be cautious about investing in a player given the limited game film and the relatively small amount we’ve heard from him overall. While it is still possible that Peterson goes earlier than this, they may have to ace interviews and other pre-draft processes more than some may think.
Still, the Bulls get a blessing being able to kick off this era with what many think is the most talented player in the draft. Peterson is electric on offense, providing elite scoring and shot creation. He is able to score from all three levels. Playing in the Big 12, one of the toughest conferences in college basketball, he averaged 20 PPG on 38% from 3 and 58% true shooting. In terms of who will be able to translate their college scoring production to the pros, Peterson is as safe a bet as it gets.
#5 Sacramento Kings (Trade via LAC): Darius Acuff Jr.
For better or for worse, this almost feels like too good a marriage to be true. With a roster that is clearly not going anywhere and after trading both Tyreese Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox in recent years, the Kings front office would like nothing more than to add a young point guard who could excite the Kings faithful. It makes perfect sense that they seem enamored with Darius Acuff Jr. With this portion of the draft being heavy with point guards and other small guards, Acuff would be a candidate to go to the Clippers at #5 or the Nets at #6, which is why I have the Kings securing their guy by trading up two spots.
Acuff is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the draft. At Arkansas last year, he led the SEC in Points Per Game, assists per game, Offensive Box Plus Minus, and Points Produced. He is also one of the most electric players to watch. He is constantly hitting moves to create separation and even posturing people who are much taller than him. He is one of the most athletic players in the draft, drawing comparisons to Russell Westbrook and former king De’Aaron Fox.
His concerns come from his measurable defense. At the combine, he measured 6’2″, which even some questioned. On defense, he ranks poorly in most metrics, and his build leaves little room for error due to his sometimes poor focus on that end. The starck difference in his offensive and defensive profiles has made him one of the most divisive prospects in this draft amongst fans and analysts.
Maybe the Kings are better off going with a safer, more solid all-around player as they look to make slow progress to build something, and maybe in the long run, Acuff is better off going to a team where there’s less immediate pressure on him, but there’s something about this marriage that just feels too perfect not to happen.
#6 Brooklyn Nets: Keaton Wagler, Illinois
While Nets fans may have been disappointed to fall out of the top four in the draft, there is still plenty of great talent available for them to add to their young core. Here, they grab Keaton Wagler, a highly adaptable player who can be a good fit with whoever they bring in for years to come.
Wagler offers a strong blend of playmaking and scoring. He averaged 18 points per game on 40% from three and 60% true shooting while also averaging 4.2 assists to only 1.8 turnovers.
He is also a notably good rebounder for a guard. At just 6’6, he averaged 5.1 rebounds per game, which was good for an 8.5 total rebound percentage and 6.7 offensive rebound percentage. While he’s not considered incredible on defense, he holds his own and, with his motor and size, should be able to grow on that end.
Questions have arisen about his ability to be a primary ball handler at the next level, but he’ll have time to grow there and should be an excellent secondary connecting piece. He’ll be able to play on and off the ball next to Egor Demin and will have an easy time fitting in with whatever the Nets bring in in the future.
#7 Los Angelous Clippers (Trade via SAC): Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
In my first major riser of the draft, I have the Los Angeles Clippers trading back to 7 to select Yaxel Lendeborg. While drafting a 23-year-old, this high may throw people off, teams have shown a willingness to draft older players higher and higher if they are well-rounded, sure things with avenues to grow.
Even though Lendeborg is an older prospect, he’s still fairly new to the game, only starting competitive basketball at age 15. As the best player on the best team in college basketball last year, he brings a lot of NBA traits right away, while he continues to be able to grow in a Clippers infrastructure that should suit him well
Lendeborg averaged 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists on 65% true shooting as a first-year transfer at Michigan. Coming off a year when he absolutely dominated at the University of Alabama-Birmingham, this continued to show his growth, proving he can compete against tough Big Ten competition.
Standing at 6’9 with a 7’4 wingspan, he fits perfectly in the modern NBA. He can operate both as a large wing and as an undersized big man. He continues to take leaps as a shooter, getting up to over 37% from three last year. If that part of his game continues to expand, it will open up more avenues for him as a player.
He can show occasional lapses on the court, but as someone fairly new to the game, that can still be programmed out over time. He still has room to grow, despite his age, and learning under Kawhi is as good an environment as it gets.
For the Clippers, this trade is a dream scenario. After getting as lucky as anyone during the lottery with the Pacers pick falling out of protections, they are able to trade back to acquire even more assets as they look to replenish in a post-Kawhi era down the road after losing many of their picks to acquire Paul George and James Harden.
After acquiring their future point guard, Darius Garland, at the last trade deadline, they are able to trade out of a range dominated by smaller guards and acquire a player who can help them maximize the Kawhi era right now and give them a sure thing as they look to navigate a future end of that era.
While this may seem like a reach at seven, the trade down makes this easier to digest. This reminds me of when the Suns traded down to select Cam Johnson in 2019, a pick that, despite the trade down, was still considered a reach. The Suns ended up landing a sure thing in Johnson while replenishing for the future. I also suspect coach Ty Lue will feel more comfortable with a rookie who has played in big games and moments already, who has sometimes shown a propensity to trust veterans over young players. While you may argue they can acquire Lendeborg even later in the draft, I have a hard time believing he’ll make it past any of the teams picking 11-13.
#8 Atlanta Hawks: Kingston Flemings, Houston
In a post-Trae Young era, the Hawks go out and get a dynamic young point guard who their core currently lacks. Flemings brings a lot to the table for the Hawks as a dynamic and competitive primary ball handler.
Last year, Flemings often put himself in the conversation as the best point guard in the country. As a high-volume scorer, he averaged 16 points, 39% from three, and 56% true shooting. While he’s extremely skilled as a scorer, his shot diet can likely improve. He heavily relied on midranges while only shooting 2.9 three-pointers a game. If Flemings can adjust his shot diet to fit the modern NBA, his ceiling as a scorer can increase dramatically.
He is likely even more skilled as a playmaker, where he is one of the absolute best in the class. As the primary ball handler with high usage on one of the top teams in the country, he averaged 5.2 assists per game and 2.3 turnovers per game.
Although his measurables aren’t anything crazy, standing at 6’4 190 pounds, he stands out as a defender due to his excellent hands, quickness, and motor.
While Flemings may seem like a flash player, he contributes to winning in many ways, and if he can improve his shot selection, his ceiling as a two-way guard is through the roof.
#9 Dallas Mavericks: Mikel Brown, Louisville
While people debate the top of the draft order, I have a feeling the debate between Flemings and Brown will intensify as we get closer to the draft. While I do have Flemings going before Brown in the draft, Brown will bring a lot to the table to whoever selects him.
Somewhat in contrast with Flemings, Brown doesn’t get his scoring efficiency through shooting insane percentages from certain areas, but rather through efficient shot selection and diet. Despite only shooting 34% from three, he puts them up, averaging 7.6 attempts per game. That makes that aspect a valuable aspect of his game.
Mikel Brown balances his college production with excellent measurable results. His 6’5 height with a 6’7 wingspan is extremely solid for a guard. New president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri has valued that dating back to his days in Toronto.
As the Mavericks look to solidify the point guard spot long term next to Cooper Flagg, Brown provides a high-floor, solid option. He will be able to learn from Kyrie Irving in the long term while playing on the ball next to him in the short term.
#10 Milwaukee Bucks: Hannes Steinbach, Washington
The Bucks are in as weird a place as it gets, at the crossroads between the pre- and post-Giannis eras. While we may have more clarity on that situation heading up into the draft, for now, I have them going, Hannes Steinbach.
I’m somewhat operating under the assumption that Giannis is gone. If Giannis is staying, I could see them going for a player that fits with him, like Braydon Burries or Cameron Carr. If we assume Giannis is gone, Steinbach provides an interesting piece as they start their rebuild.
Steinbach projects as one of the dominant rebounders in the draft. He led all of college basketball. He has a great feel for the game while being very polished around the rim.
While not athletically dominant, Steinbach’s upside comes from his tangible skills. Shooting 34% from 3 on nearly two attempts per game will play at 6’10 at the NBA level. Combine that with dominant inside scoring in college, and it is easy to see why a team may fall in love with him.
A Bucks roster without Giannis has no business taking anything but best player available. While Myles Turner’s contract may seem like it may limit Steinbach’s short-term window, some of Turner’s recent comments make me wonder if his time in Milwaukee may come to an end soon. If there was a young player to point to on Milwaukee’s roster, it is 2025-26 breakout combo guard Ryan Rollins, who, in this scenario, they add a big man he can grow with over time.
Remainder of the lottery:
#11 Golden State Warriors: Aday Mara, Michigan
#12 Oklahoma City Thunder: Jayden Quaintance, Kentucky
#13 Miami Heat: Labaron Philon, Alabama
#14 Charlotte Hornets: Braydon Burries, Baylor
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