The UFC is gearing up for a massive 2025 and we are just about a week away from their first PPV of the year which will feature title fights in the lightweight and bantamweight divisions. Every year I like to take a look at the divisional landscape and forecast who I think will be atop the divisions by the end of the calendar year. With that, let’s dive into the four lighter divisions and predict who will be champion once the year is over.
Who will be UFC champion?
Flyweight Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja
Starting out with the flyweight division, I think that the champion will remain the same as I believe Alexandre Pantoja (29-5) will close out the year as champion. Pantoja has been on an incredible run over the past couple of years. After beating Brandon Moreno for the flyweight title, he’s defended the title three times against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and Kai Asakura.
Pantoja is getting better with each performance and it’s hard to imagine someone taking the belt off him. Kai Kara-France is likely going to be the next challenger, but I don’t see him beating Pantoja. Manel Kape and Brandon Royval are fighting in a title eliminator soon, but both men have already lost to Pantoja and I think they’d lose again.
The wild card for me is Deiveson Figueiredo. The former flyweight champion could drop back down and he’s already beaten Pantoja. That’s the one man I think who would have the best chance at dethroning the current UFC flyweight champion.
Bantamweight Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov
The first title that will change hands in 2025 will happen next week when bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) takes on challenger Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0). I think the run of the machine ends next week. Outside of pace and pressure, I’m not sure where Merab beats Nurmagomedov next week and I think we will see a new champion crowned.
Nurmagomedov is extremely well-rounded and we’ve seen him dominate top contenders like Cory Sandhagen. Should he win the title in dominant fashion against Dvalishvili, I’m not sure there’s another bantamweight that will be able to stop him. I think once he captures the title, he’ll keep it for a long time.
Featherweight Prediction: Ilia Topuria
In my opinion, there’s not going to be any turnover in the UFC’s featherweight division. “El Matador” Ilia Topuria (16-0) is on top of that division and I don’t think anything is changing this year. Topuria was my fighter of the year in 2024 after knocking out Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.
I really don’t see anyone beating Ilia Topuria right now. Topuria’s next title defense will be a rematch against Volkanovski and the well-roundedness of Volkanovski definitely gives him a chance. However, I ultimately see Topuria getting the finish again. Diego Lopes could give Topuria a really good fight but I think the cardio would be a huge problem for Lopes and I think Topuria would score another finish. Simply put, Ilia Topuria is too good for anyone to beat him right now.
Lightweight Prediction: Islam Makhachev
Next up we have the lightweight division and champion Islam Makhachev (26-1). I think Makhachev has a very tough test at UFC 311 when he has his rematch against Arman Tsarukyan (22-3). I think that in the lightweight division, Tsarukyan will give him his toughest fight, but I still just believe that Makhachev wins that fight.
Should he defeat Tsarukyan in the rematch, I think we could see a rematch with Charles Oliveira next. Based on their first fight, I think Makhachev would likely win the rematch and then I think he’d explore a move to welterweight. Ultimately when the year is over, Islam Makhachev will still be the lightweight champion.