We are just about a week away from UFC 324 and fight fans will rejoice after a long-stretch where there have not been any fights. It’s a major year for the promotion and you can expect some title changes to take place this year.
With that, I wanted to look at every division in the UFC and make a prediction for who I think will be holding the title at the end of this calendar year. In this article, we will be taking a look at men’s flyweight up through the lightweight division.
Who will be UFC champion?
Flyweight – Alexandre Pantoja
A little over a month ago, Joshua Van (16-2) became the flyweight champion after long-time champion Alexandre Pantoja (30-6) injured his arm in the opening seconds. Let’s call it what it is, it was a flukey win that cost Pantoja his championship.
I really like Joshua Van, but I don’t think he beats any of the three guys who are right behind him in the division. I don’t think that he would defeat Manel Kape (22-7). I don’t think that he would beat Tatsuro Taira (18-1) and in a full fight, I don’t think that he would beat Alexandre Pantoja.
If they run things back immediately, I expect Pantoja to regain the title. I would favor Pantoja against Taira and ultimately, I would also favor him against Kape. I expect Pantoja to regain the UFC flyweight title and I expect him to hold that belt at the end of this year.
Bantamweight – Umar Nurmagomedov
A little over a month ago, Petr Yan (20-5) put on the performance of his career when he defeated and took the title away from Merab Dvalishvili (21-5). It was the best version of Petr Yan and he needed to be that version to take the title away from Merab.
I think the UFC is going to give Dvalishvili and immediate rematch considering how dominant he was this year prior to losing to Yan. I think it’s a tossup between the two when they fight for the third time.
That said, I don’t think either man ends the year as champion. I think this will finally be the year that Umar Nurmagomedov (19-1) climbs the mountain and becomes champion. I expect him to win with ease next week and from there, I expect him to likely get a title shot in the fall.
Featherweight – Alexander Volkanovski (If not retired)
In just a few weeks, Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) will defend his featherweight title against Diego Lopes (27-7). It’s a fight that makes zero sense to me considering the fact that Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) and Movsar Evloev (19-0) are right there ready to challenger for the title and Lopes just got dominated by Volkanovski last year.
Nevertheless, it’s the fight that was made and I don’t see a different result in this one. There are rumors that Evloev and Murphy will fight in March with the winner lining up to face Volk. I expect Volkanovski to retain at UFC 325 and then I ultimately expect him to defeat either Evloev or Murphy when they fight.
Perhaps he walks away after that second title defense in 2026, but if he doesn’t, I expect him to end the year as champion.
Lightweight – Ilia Topuria
Next weekend in the main event of UFC 324, the interim lightweight title is on the line between Justin Gaethje (26-5) and Paddy Pimblett (23-3). I don’t think either of those men stand a chance against Ilia Topuria (17-0) once the champion comes back after dealing with personal issues outside the octagon.
The only man at 155 who can give Topuria a true test is Arman Tsarukyan (23-3). I think Topuria – Tsarukyan is a really close fight, but I’m not convinced it happens this year. All we know is that Topuria will face whoever the interim champion is. If that fight doesn’t happen until the late summer months, Topuria might only fight once this year.
In that scenario, there is no doubt he’ll end the year as UFC lightweight champion. If he has to fight Tsarukyan, it’s a close call but I’m going with the current champion to hold onto his title until at least the start of 2027.
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