Tomorrow on the main card of UFC Saudi Arabia, we are going to see a big time matchup in the heavyweight division. Two big time strikers will collide as former interim title challenger Sergei Pavlovich (18-3) takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5).
Starting with Pavlovich, he needs a win badly in this one. We are just over a year removed from his interim title fight with Tom Aspinall. Entering that bout, Pavlovich looked like the most intimidating heavyweight in the division having scored six straight first round knockouts. However, he was knocked out by Aspinall then in his last fight, he was dominated by Alexander Volkov.
Now he needs to bounce back against Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik entered the UFC unbeaten years ago and after starting 4-0 inside the octagon, he called out Francis Ngannou. He was knocked out by Ngannou and that started a stretch where he went just 3-5 in eight fights. However, he’s won two straight and he’s looked really good in his last two fights.
UFC Saudi Arabia Prediction
If this fight was about a year and a half ago, I wouldn’t even think about this prediction. I would think that Pavlovich would just blitz Rozenstruik and he would knock him out in the first round. However, the last fight against Volkov is really giving me pause.
Rozenstruik is a very technical striker and I could see him playing it safe in this matchup just fighting behind the jab and leg kicks. Pavlovich was frustrated by Volkov’s jab in the last fight and I could see Rozenstruik leaning on that at UFC Saudi Arabia.
So, who wins? I think we either see a big knockout from Pavlovich or we see Rozenstruik pick him apart. I’m going still with my initial instinct in that I think Pavlovich will get back on track with finish, but I think the odds should be much closer than what they are.
Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich by TKO